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Thread: Fantasy Hockey Mailbag - April 24, 2014

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    Default Re: Fantasy Hockey Mailbag - April 24, 2014

    Dobber,

    What are your thoughts for Quick next season? I'm just not comfortable about him anymore, especially if Sutter were to be fired. Who would you target in a points-only league? Our goalies get 2 pts for a win, 1 pt for an OT loss and 7 pts for a shutout. Obviously, those shutouts are key.

    Thanks
    Primary League: Points-only partial keeper (we keep 10 out of a 20 player roster)
    Scoring: (Skaters) G, A, PPP, SHP, GWG, OTP // (Goalies) W, A, SHL, SHO
    Forward: McDavid, Point, Matthews, Eichel, Tarasenko, Barzel, Laine, E. Petterson, Hoffman, Voracek, DeBrincat, Kopitar, D. Strome
    Defense: Jones, Werenski, R. Dahlin, Hamilton, Schultz, Dumba (IR)
    Goalie: Murray, Binnington

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    Default Re: Fantasy Hockey Mailbag - April 24, 2014

    Hey Dobber,

    Would appreciate your thoughts on this trade I've been offered in our 10 team keeper league. FYI my current top dman PPPG is Wisniewski and top forward PPPG is Backstrom. Owner that won our league last season is offering Duncan Keith + Patrick Sharp to me then getting back Ryan Strome + either Cody Ceci or Jonas Brodin plus 10th overall pick in prospect draft this summer. What do you think

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    Default Re: Fantasy Hockey Mailbag - April 24, 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by gerbernomics View Post
    pts-only projections for these guys next year:
    Nicklas Backstrom
    Patrick Marleau
    Blake Wheeler
    Vladimir Tarasenko
    Ryan Kesler
    Brandon Saad
    Brayden Schenn
    Carl Soderberg
    Jussi Jokinen
    I would be roughing it, without analysis, and my numbers for the Guide might be totally different after said analysis. But here goes:

    Nicklas Backstrom - 90
    Patrick Marleau - 67
    Blake Wheeler - 71
    Vladimir Tarasenko - 60
    Ryan Kesler - 57 in 65 games
    Brandon Saad - 58
    Brayden Schenn - 58
    Carl Soderberg - 62
    Jussi Jokinen - 50 if he stays with PIT, 40 otherwise
    The Best Fantasy Hockey Site

    15-Team Keeper, points only, best 12 fwd, 4 dman, 2 G count. Playoffs count.

    F - T. Thompson, Thomas, Nylander, Tarasenko, Arvidsson, Guentzel, Fiala, Quinn, Mittelstadt, Hagel, Zacha, Roslovic, Berggren, Brink, Ostlund
    G - Kahkonen, Vejmelka, L. Thompson, Levi, Comrie
    D - Hronek, Morrissey, Lundkvist, Girard, Brannstrom, Rathbone, Hanifin, Severson, Durzi

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    Default Re: Fantasy Hockey Mailbag - April 24, 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Selanne13 View Post
    Awesome thread. Thx man

    i got a couple of questions

    13th overall pick in our upcoming prospect draft, who do i draft? - goldobin, ho-sang, barbashev, kapanen, a. duclair, petan, poirier, markus granlund.

    i am only looking at long term value


    Will Bogosian ever score 40+ points? Points prediction for Drouin next season? same for Etem please.


    THX again for doing this. It is highly appreciated
    I haven't studied this year's crop yet, so I would pick Poirier

    Bogosian - no.

    Drouin - high 50s because I think they start him slow and on a depth line.

    Etem - high 30s because I think he'll be up and down the first couple months
    The Best Fantasy Hockey Site

    15-Team Keeper, points only, best 12 fwd, 4 dman, 2 G count. Playoffs count.

    F - T. Thompson, Thomas, Nylander, Tarasenko, Arvidsson, Guentzel, Fiala, Quinn, Mittelstadt, Hagel, Zacha, Roslovic, Berggren, Brink, Ostlund
    G - Kahkonen, Vejmelka, L. Thompson, Levi, Comrie
    D - Hronek, Morrissey, Lundkvist, Girard, Brannstrom, Rathbone, Hanifin, Severson, Durzi

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    Default Re: Fantasy Hockey Mailbag - April 24, 2014

    Thanks for doing this.

    What are your rough guess projections for the following players? Also, if you had to keep 3 out of these 5 players, who would they be?

    Scheifele
    Toffoli
    Nichushkin
    Granlund
    Huberdeau
    Dobbernomics.com | Twitter @dobbernomics
    FantasyHockeyGeek.com | Twitter @FantasyHockeyGk

    G(2), A(1), +-(1), PIM(0.25), PPP(2), SHP(3), HITS(0.1), BS(0.1), W(5), L(-2), SV(0.2), GA(-1), SO(5)

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    Default Re: Fantasy Hockey Mailbag - April 24, 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Dobber View Post
    As your number 3, Lehner is a great option. So it would depend on who gives you the most in a trade. If Mason gets you X, but Lehner gets you X+1 in a trade - then trade Lehner. Mason will get 30+ wins for Philly next year so to be honest I'd rather own Mason.
    Thanks a lot Dobber! Lehner was a sneaky freebie snag, so no one will pay up for him.......due to when our league was formed, he wasn't prospect eligible, and was not on any main roster at the end of the season. As a result, I was able to add him off waivers to stash until we declare our keepers in Sept. A couple of managers have inquired about Mason though, so sounds like I'll be pulling the trigger (assuming a worthwhile return) and rolling with Lehner as my #3 with your vote of confidence. All else being equal, I'd prefer Mason next year too, but I'm trying to invest long term with this move. Thanks a lot for the help, love these Q&A's!
    10 team, head-to-head, multi-cat, keep-12 keeper league. CATS: G,A,+/-,PPP,PIM,SOG,HITS BS,SHP, W,SV,SV%,GAA,SO Daily rosters of 6F, 4D, 2 Flex, 2G

    F: Crosby, Hall, Pacioretty, Hartnell, Neal, Nugent-Hopkins, Callahan, Dubinsky, Hossa, Huberdeau, Abdelkader, Bjugstad (IR)
    D: Karlsson, Hedman, Muzzin, Savard, Streit (IR)
    G: Lundqvist, Quick, Condon

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    Default Re: Fantasy Hockey Mailbag - April 24, 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Dobber View Post
    Of the top of my head Nick Holden and Martin Marincin. Sbisa and Ericsson if they can stay healthy a little.
    Daoust's Capped articles are full of great suggestions for bargain D. Well worth a look.

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    Default Re: Fantasy Hockey Mailbag - April 24, 2014

    Throwing one last one in there.

    My Nash & Quick for his Kessel & Bishop. Thoughts? I tend to always value players over goalies in head to head leagues due to the weekly fluctuations and unpredictability of goalie stats. I also have Price as my #1 so I'm good there.

    EDIT: deal fell through. What forward out of my keepers would you be willing to trade for _____ & Quick for Kessel & Bishop?

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    Default Re: Fantasy Hockey Mailbag - April 24, 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by jcairns View Post
    Throwing one last one in there.

    My Nash & Quick for his Kessel & Bishop. Thoughts? I tend to always value players over goalies in head to head leagues due to the weekly fluctuations and unpredictability of goalie stats. I also have Price as my #1 so I'm good there.
    pretty solid in your favor here... take the kessel side
    15-Team keep 6f, 3d, 1g pts-only, wins=2, SO=3, OTL=1
    F: Robertson, Thompson, DeBrincat, McCann, Tomasino, Chytil, Brink, Carlsson, Berggren, Guenther
    D: Morrissey, Montour, Jiricek, Perbix, LaCombe, Perunovich
    G: Talbot, Kuemper, Merzlikins, Kochetkov, Copley

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    Default Re: Fantasy Hockey Mailbag - April 24, 2014

    How much should we be worried about the Trotz effect on offensive players, if/when he finds a new team this summer? Was his style in Nashville due to a lack of great offensive options, or was the lack of offense due to his style?

    If he joins the Leafs for example, do you knock 5 points off your projection for Kessel? 10? 20? What about farther down the lineup? Does everyone take an equal hit, percentage-wise, in points scored, or do some units suffer more than others? Am I massively over-thinking this?

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    Default Re: Fantasy Hockey Mailbag - April 24, 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by gerbernomics View Post
    pretty solid in your favor here... take the kessel side
    Haha, yeah I proposed it and he was interested but unfortunately a few minutes later he backed out. Working on something else now.

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    Default Re: Fantasy Hockey Mailbag - April 24, 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Mookyshoots View Post
    Dobber,

    What are your thoughts for Quick next season? I'm just not comfortable about him anymore, especially if Sutter were to be fired. Who would you target in a points-only league? Our goalies get 2 pts for a win, 1 pt for an OT loss and 7 pts for a shutout. Obviously, those shutouts are key.

    Thanks
    I still consider him a Top 10 goalie, though he's probably not a part of any Big 3 that we thought he was a year ago. If Sutter is fired, the low scoring may stop, yes. Crazy scoring system!

    Quick's contract makes him a Top 10 whether he plays like one or not. He'll get all the starts in the world.
    The Best Fantasy Hockey Site

    15-Team Keeper, points only, best 12 fwd, 4 dman, 2 G count. Playoffs count.

    F - T. Thompson, Thomas, Nylander, Tarasenko, Arvidsson, Guentzel, Fiala, Quinn, Mittelstadt, Hagel, Zacha, Roslovic, Berggren, Brink, Ostlund
    G - Kahkonen, Vejmelka, L. Thompson, Levi, Comrie
    D - Hronek, Morrissey, Lundkvist, Girard, Brannstrom, Rathbone, Hanifin, Severson, Durzi

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    Default Re: Fantasy Hockey Mailbag - April 24, 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Big E View Post
    Hey Dobber,

    Would appreciate your thoughts on this trade I've been offered in our 10 team keeper league. FYI my current top dman PPPG is Wisniewski and top forward PPPG is Backstrom. Owner that won our league last season is offering Duncan Keith + Patrick Sharp to me then getting back Ryan Strome + either Cody Ceci or Jonas Brodin plus 10th overall pick in prospect draft this summer. What do you think
    If you can do that deal with Brodin, and you keep Ceci, then that's a great deal. If you have to include Ceci, still do it (it's not as good though)
    The Best Fantasy Hockey Site

    15-Team Keeper, points only, best 12 fwd, 4 dman, 2 G count. Playoffs count.

    F - T. Thompson, Thomas, Nylander, Tarasenko, Arvidsson, Guentzel, Fiala, Quinn, Mittelstadt, Hagel, Zacha, Roslovic, Berggren, Brink, Ostlund
    G - Kahkonen, Vejmelka, L. Thompson, Levi, Comrie
    D - Hronek, Morrissey, Lundkvist, Girard, Brannstrom, Rathbone, Hanifin, Severson, Durzi

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    Default Re: Fantasy Hockey Mailbag - April 24, 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by chillyh View Post
    Thanks for doing this.

    What are your rough guess projections for the following players? Also, if you had to keep 3 out of these 5 players, who would they be?

    Scheifele
    Toffoli
    Nichushkin
    Granlund
    Huberdeau
    I would keep the first three, because Granlund gets hurt a lot and Huberdeau had a horrible year. So you keep the better trade assets. I think all five will be fine though. And each one should top 65 points at some time in his career
    The Best Fantasy Hockey Site

    15-Team Keeper, points only, best 12 fwd, 4 dman, 2 G count. Playoffs count.

    F - T. Thompson, Thomas, Nylander, Tarasenko, Arvidsson, Guentzel, Fiala, Quinn, Mittelstadt, Hagel, Zacha, Roslovic, Berggren, Brink, Ostlund
    G - Kahkonen, Vejmelka, L. Thompson, Levi, Comrie
    D - Hronek, Morrissey, Lundkvist, Girard, Brannstrom, Rathbone, Hanifin, Severson, Durzi

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    Default Re: Fantasy Hockey Mailbag - April 24, 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by jcairns View Post
    Throwing one last one in there.

    My Nash & Quick for his Kessel & Bishop. Thoughts? I tend to always value players over goalies in head to head leagues due to the weekly fluctuations and unpredictability of goalie stats. I also have Price as my #1 so I'm good there.

    EDIT: deal fell through. What forward out of my keepers would you be willing to trade for _____ & Quick for Kessel & Bishop?
    Nash, Skinner, St. Louis or Pacioretty
    The Best Fantasy Hockey Site

    15-Team Keeper, points only, best 12 fwd, 4 dman, 2 G count. Playoffs count.

    F - T. Thompson, Thomas, Nylander, Tarasenko, Arvidsson, Guentzel, Fiala, Quinn, Mittelstadt, Hagel, Zacha, Roslovic, Berggren, Brink, Ostlund
    G - Kahkonen, Vejmelka, L. Thompson, Levi, Comrie
    D - Hronek, Morrissey, Lundkvist, Girard, Brannstrom, Rathbone, Hanifin, Severson, Durzi

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