Yup, definitely too early to accurately peg a team until we see what free agents come in & which leave.
The first statistic I look towards when forecasting team success is SOGA: Shots on Goal Against.
How has a team been trending with their current roster?
2nd last in the NHL this year: Ottawa. 34.7 shots against per game. If a goalie doesn't stand on his head... and is just average... it also means they'll give up close to the 2nd most goals in the NHL. And Ottawa... was 4th worst in goal against.
8th last in the NHL last year: Ottawa. 31.3 shots against per game. That year, though, Anderson stood on his head. And instead of being 8th worst in the NHL in goals against... Ottawa... was 2nd BEST in goals against.
2nd last in the NHL in 2011-2012: Ottawa. 32.4 shots against per game.
That's three consecutive seasons of defensive futility.
That's Anderson's impact in that 2012-2013 magical year.
Ottawa SHOULD have been the 8th worst NHL team defensively... but Anderson made them the 2nd best NHL team defensively.
People miss this when they look at the "team".
They see the fact that a team made the playoffs (!!!) without their star (!!!) and say "Oh, they HAVE to be better than they did without their star."
And they keep pointing to this fact.
But what Anderson did for that 2012-2013 team... in a shortened season where good stats are magnified... can't be denied.
In that 2012-2013 season, Anderson single-handedly improved Ottawa by TWENTY-ONE ranks defensively. They should've been 8th worst... they were 2nd best.
That's unparalleled.
But let's not lose track of the key parts here.
Ottawa was 8th worst in the NHL in shots allowed in 2012-2013.
Ottawa was 2nd worst in the NHL in shots allowed in 2013-2014.
This season, 2013-2014... only TWO of the NHL's ten worst teams in SOGA made the playoffs.
Colorado (6th worst) & Montreal (T-8th worst).
In the previous season, 2012-2013... again... only TWO of the NHL's ten worst teams in SOGA made the playoffs.
Washington (3rd worst) & Ottawa (8th worst).
And oh Washington... poor Washington... who had to say goodbye to their cozy "Southeastern Division".
In fact, if you look back to 2012-2013... those two teams that were lucky enough to make the playoffs, Washington & Ottawa, both MISSED the playoffs this year.
[And we also shouldn't lose track of the fact that in 2012-2013, Eastern Conference teams ONLY played Eastern Conference teams... there was no Detroit, there was no Columbus. Making the playoffs was much easier.]
So - when I'm looking at a team, they might simply be "lucky" to make the playoffs when they are so bad defensively.
Looking still at 2012-2013, only two teams from that worst 10 made the playoffs THIS season.
Colorado (6th worst last year), improved under Roy and the kids to make the playoffs.
Dallas (9th worst last year), improved enough to squeak into the playoffs.
So... there's your key numbers.
TWO in TEN.
2/10 of the NHL's ten worst teams in SOGA will make the playoffs in any year.
And of those 10 worst teams, it's likely that only two are going to be in the playoffs next year.
Last year... it was the 6th worst Avs and the 8th worst Stars that improved enough to go playoff-ing this year.
Since Ottawa was 2nd worst this year in SOGA... they'd really, really, really have to make some defensive improvements to make the playoffs next year. My 2 cents.
Shot differential. (& SOGA specifically)
Like it... hate it... whatever you want.
For me... it's my #1 "team evaluator" statistic for rationalizing team success.