Ottawa Senators won't make playoffs next year

[newfcollins]

The thing with the Sens to remember is that a lot of their young guys regressed this year (as sometimes happens). You've got to figure some of them improve again (Cowan, Lehner, Weircoch, etc.). Zibs didn't really regress (kept the same points-per-game pace).

All these threads about who makes the playoffs next year is a little early, no? Why don't we wait to see what teams do in the offseason first?

[Pengwin7]

Yup, definitely too early to accurately peg a team until we see what free agents come in & which leave.

The first statistic I look towards when forecasting team success is SOGA: Shots on Goal Against.
How has a team been trending with their current roster?

2nd last in the NHL this year: Ottawa. 34.7 shots against per game. If a goalie doesn't stand on his head... and is just average... it also means they'll give up close to the 2nd most goals in the NHL. And Ottawa... was 4th worst in goal against.
8th last in the NHL last year: Ottawa. 31.3 shots against per game. That year, though, Anderson stood on his head. And instead of being 8th worst in the NHL in goals against... Ottawa... was 2nd BEST in goals against.
2nd last in the NHL in 2011-2012: Ottawa. 32.4 shots against per game.
That's three consecutive seasons of defensive futility.

That's Anderson's impact in that 2012-2013 magical year.
Ottawa SHOULD have been the 8th worst NHL team defensively... but Anderson made them the 2nd best NHL team defensively.

People miss this when they look at the "team".
They see the fact that a team made the playoffs (!!!) without their star (!!!) and say "Oh, they HAVE to be better than they did without their star."
And they keep pointing to this fact.

But what Anderson did for that 2012-2013 team... in a shortened season where good stats are magnified... can't be denied.
In that 2012-2013 season, Anderson single-handedly improved Ottawa by TWENTY-ONE ranks defensively. They should've been 8th worst... they were 2nd best.
That's unparalleled.

But let's not lose track of the key parts here.
Ottawa was 8th worst in the NHL in shots allowed in 2012-2013.
Ottawa was 2nd worst in the NHL in shots allowed in 2013-2014.

This season, 2013-2014... only TWO of the NHL's ten worst teams in SOGA made the playoffs.
Colorado (6th worst) & Montreal (T-8th worst).

In the previous season, 2012-2013... again... only TWO of the NHL's ten worst teams in SOGA made the playoffs.
Washington (3rd worst) & Ottawa (8th worst).
And oh Washington... poor Washington... who had to say goodbye to their cozy "Southeastern Division".

In fact, if you look back to 2012-2013... those two teams that were lucky enough to make the playoffs, Washington & Ottawa, both MISSED the playoffs this year.
[And we also shouldn't lose track of the fact that in 2012-2013, Eastern Conference teams ONLY played Eastern Conference teams... there was no Detroit, there was no Columbus. Making the playoffs was much easier.]
So - when I'm looking at a team, they might simply be "lucky" to make the playoffs when they are so bad defensively.

Looking still at 2012-2013, only two teams from that worst 10 made the playoffs THIS season.
Colorado (6th worst last year), improved under Roy and the kids to make the playoffs.
Dallas (9th worst last year), improved enough to squeak into the playoffs.


So... there's your key numbers.
TWO in TEN.

2/10 of the NHL's ten worst teams in SOGA will make the playoffs in any year.
And of those 10 worst teams, it's likely that only two are going to be in the playoffs next year.

Last year... it was the 6th worst Avs and the 8th worst Stars that improved enough to go playoff-ing this year.
Since Ottawa was 2nd worst this year in SOGA... they'd really, really, really have to make some defensive improvements to make the playoffs next year. My 2 cents.

Shot differential. (& SOGA specifically)
Like it... hate it... whatever you want.
For me... it's my #1 "team evaluator" statistic for rationalizing team success.

[Big Ev]

It wasn't just Anderson, it was all three of Anderson, Bishop, Lehner. That team played much better team D than this year's, mostly because their stars were out. This year, with Spezza gone, and with the coach admitting they will be tweaking their system, they should improve defensively.

In the SOGA stats, you have New Jersey at #1 (missed), Vancouver (missed) and Calgary (missed) are in the Top 10, and the best team in the league is sitting in 12th. Scoring chances against would be better.

And Pengwin, you said that we shouldn't analyze Tampa Bay's last 3+ years because it was a completely different team, well Ottawa is also a different team losing Alfredsson and Gonchar along with other role players.

[Pengwin7]

...well Ottawa is also a different team losing Alfredsson and Gonchar along with other role players.

Q: How many years of Ottawa hockey did I reference?
A: Three.

Q: How long has MacLean been the coach of Ottawa?
A: _____.

As for Alfie & Gonchar... deleting those guys should have improved their SOGA... but it got worse.

As for TB, Cooper has been there two years.
TB's SOG for has improved from last year (27.6) to this year (29.8). pre-Cooper, 2011-2012 there SOG was 27.2.
TB's SOGA has improved from last year (30.2) to this year (29.3). pre-Cooper, 2011-2012 there SOGA was 30.5
See the trend?

TB has put two extra shots on net per game, and taken a half shot off per game.
That's improvement. And we know they're young.
And that SOG vs. SOGA doesn't even include the bonus that a solid goalie (Bishop) can provide.

OTT SOG worsened from last year (33.1) to this year (32.8).
OTT's SOGA also got worse from last year (31.3) to this year (34.7).
See the trend?

So yes... Ottawa's defense WAS better in 2012-2013. And yes... so was their team goaltending.
What's the point of pointing to that?
That was a season when they played only Eastern Conference opponents... and no DET, no CBJ.

THIS past season teams were back to playing full slate of opponents.
Putting too much stock into a team's 2012-2013 performance can be a big mistake.

[Big Ev]

As for Alfie & Gonchar... deleting those guys should have improved their SOGA... but it got worse.

Losing arguably your best two-way forward and a Top 4 D should improve your SOGA? I stopped reading after this.

[Pengwin7]

^I'll retract on Alfie.
Bad comment by me on Alfie.

Gonchar, however, wasn't doing them any favours in the shots for vs. shots against department. He was merely average in his last Sens season.
And his replacement (whoever that was) doesn't present any significant change - so he's not even a player I think is worth commenting about.

Doesn't change the SOG vs. SOGA numbers.
Trend is still there.

Now you've alluded to it yourself... they are much worse without Alfredsson, who they had in 2012-2013... yet you will still argue they've got a good shot at playoffs next year.

[Big Ev]

^I'll retract on Alfie.
Bad comment by me on Alfie.

Gonchar, however, wasn't doing them any favours in the shots for vs. shots against department. He was merely average in his last Sens season.
And his replacement (whoever that was) doesn't present any significant change - so he's not even a player I think is worth commenting about.

Doesn't change the SOG vs. SOGA numbers.
Trend is still there.

Now you've alluded to it yourself... they are much worse without Alfredsson, who they had in 2012-2013... yet you will still argue they've got a good shot at playoffs next year.

If anyone says they don't have a good shot at the playoffs, they are kidding themselves. They should be a playoff team, like everyone thought they would be this season. They are a better team without Spezza.

This board - and fans in general - are so damn biased by the "now". The fact that the poll for Tampa was 25-8 and this poll is 4-13 all but confirms that. There's really no point even debating this as people would just pick the same damn teams who made the playoffs this season.

Regardless of trends, which won't be relevant once you see next year's roster, the pieces are all there, and more are coming, for this team to be a playoff team every year.

[JagrBomb]

If anyone says they don't have a good shot at the playoffs, they are kidding themselves. They should be a playoff team, like everyone thought they would be this season. They are a better team without Spezza.

This board - and fans in general - are so damn biased by the "now". The fact that the poll for Tampa was 25-8 and this poll is 4-13 all but confirms that. There's really no point even debating this as people would just pick the same damn teams who made the playoffs this season.

Regardless of trends, which won't be relevant once you see next year's roster, the pieces are all there, and more are coming, for this team to be a playoff team every year.

not everyone thought the sens were a playoff team this year. and is there really any need to call people on this board biased? we all have our opinions, just as you do. i'm sure if the board had a poll you would be nominated at least top 5 for most biased members.

stop hating because people don't think the sens are a good team. if you want to create a thread to bring light to a possible tampa regression next season, that is perfectly fine. just don't start calling everyone else biased when they do the same thing to your precious sens.

fact is, apart from the few established playoff teams in the east, the rest are all questionable as to whether they will make it. teams like tampa, washington, ottawa, etc are all bubble teams. the offseason will play a huge part in determining which of these teams make the playoffs, so it's pointless to try to guess right now which teams will make it or not. maybe tampa doesn't replace st.louis/callahan and becomes a lottery team. maybe the sens get a monster return for spezza because of his great contract. maybe leafs find some dumbass to take clarkson and phaneuf. ANYTHING can happen.

[Big Ev]

not everyone thought the sens were a playoff team this year. and is there really any need to call people on this board biased? we all have our opinions, just as you do. i'm sure if the board had a poll you would be nominated at least top 5 for most biased members.

stop hating because people don't think the sens are a good team. if you want to create a thread to bring light to a possible tampa regression next season, that is perfectly fine. just don't start calling everyone else biased when they do the same thing to your precious sens.

fact is, apart from the few established playoff teams in the east, the rest are all questionable as to whether they will make it. teams like tampa, washington, ottawa, etc are all bubble teams. the offseason will play a huge part in determining which of these teams make the playoffs, so it's pointless to try to guess right now which teams will make it or not. maybe tampa doesn't replace st.louis/callahan and becomes a lottery team. maybe the sens get a monster return for spezza because of his great contract. maybe leafs find some dumbass to take clarkson and phaneuf. ANYTHING can happen.

Not calling anyone out pal. I'm saying people are biased, and this is proven, when asked about who would make the playoffs, they just pick the teams that previously made it. Happens every year. And we get to see lots of stats and such that try to show why a team won't make it, when the stat that's supposed to show success is led by a team who didn't make it.

It's basically - Tampa did well so they will make it and continue to be good. Sens missed the playoffs so they must be declining.

I agree with your third paragraph and that's all I've been saying.

[Magicstew]

Sens have a shot at the playoffs next year. They will be a bubble team like about 8 others. They were only a couple hot goalie starts and a couple shootout goals from making playoffs. It will all depend on whatever free agent moves they and others make. Maybe they get a favorable schedule to start the season. Its not all doom and gloom in Ottawa.

[JagrBomb]

Not calling anyone out pal. I'm saying people are biased, and this is proven, when asked about who would make the playoffs, they just pick the teams that previously made it. Happens every year. And we get to see lots of stats and such that try to show why a team won't make it, when the stat that's supposed to show success is led by a team who didn't make it.

It's basically - Tampa did well so they will make it and continue to be good. Sens missed the playoffs so they must be declining.

I agree with your third paragraph and that's all I've been saying.

my point is, the biased fans you are calling out now remind me of you during last year's offseason. as you said now, the sens were just like tampa this year...overachieved, lost top player due to injury, youngsters stepped up etc. you were telling everyone they would only improve with a healthy spezza and karlsson, that they were definitely a playoff team, that they would easily finish higher than detroit in the playoffs. by your logic, that means you were clearly just picking teams that previously made the playoffs too. the very thing you are trying to point out is exactly how you acted last year, yet you call people biased when they do it?

at least one paragraph was agreed upon lol

[Big Ev]

my point is, the biased fans you are calling out now remind me of you during last year's offseason. as you said now, the sens were just like tampa this year...overachieved, lost top player due to injury, youngsters stepped up etc. you were telling everyone they would only improve with a healthy spezza and karlsson, that they were definitely a playoff team, that they would easily finish higher than detroit in the playoffs. by your logic, that means you were clearly just picking teams that previously made the playoffs too. the very thing you are trying to point out is exactly how you acted last year, yet you call people biased when they do it?

at least one paragraph was agreed upon lol

Biased isn't the right word. Lazy is a better word.

[fulcrum]

The sens will for the foreseeable future be a playoff contender. But until I see Lehner take over, moving Anderson for a piece required.....Spezza gone for a piece required.....and all these young guys that are supposed to be good step up....

the sens will toil on the verge of playoffs...

[Call of Doughty]

Last June I think I wrote what a stupid idea it would be to give Spezza the captaincy. He is not a leader, period. I certainly wouldn't follow that guy into battle. A lot of radio fodder in the area discusses the Senator's lack of identity this year and what it will/should be going into next year. More truculent perhaps?
Bring up Richardson to coach, move Spezza to LA for Kopitar, trade Anderson and Greening to Edmonton for Eberle 5 and ride Lehner like Zorro next season. I lost any interest in this team after the Olympics. Oh and MacArthur for captain....kid's got balls

[mister_mcgoo]

Last June I think I wrote what a stupid idea it would be to give Spezza the captaincy. He is not a leader, period. I certainly wouldn't follow that guy into battle. A lot of radio fodder in the area discusses the Senator's lack of identity this year and what it will/should be going into next year. More truculent perhaps?
Bring up Richardson to coach, move Spezza to LA for Kopitar, trade Anderson and Greening to Edmonton for Eberle 5 and ride Lehner like Zorro next season. I lost any interest in this team after the Olympics. Oh and MacArthur for captain....kid's got balls

Well those would all be good moves actually, but I'm not sure there's any hope there. Can you really see the kings giving up Kopitar for Spezza? I can't. And I think Eberle is on the Oilers 'Do Not Trade' list. They do need a goalie though so who knows, I can see that having some potential, more so than the Spezza deal