Results 1 to 10 of 10

Thread: Goalie Volatility: A good article from Five Thirty Eight

  1. #1
    Location
    Prairies
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Demi-God

    Default Goalie Volatility: A good article from Five Thirty Eight

    Most people know that I love statistics.
    I'm also a harsh critic with regard to fantasy hockey articles.

    I've long backed investing in skaters in fantasy hockey - as their stats are a bit more dependable than goalies.

    This article, here, is a good one.
    I'll be doing more reading over there - hopefully they can issue more regular hockey articles as they grow.

    Smart guys.

  2. #2
    jcairns's Avatar
    jcairns is offline
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    2,920
    Location
    Vancouver, BC
    Rep Power
    44

    Dobber Sports Veteran

    Default Re: Goalie Volatility: A good article from Five Thirty Eight

    Good article. I tend to follow your advice as well about goalies. It is why I didn't think twice early this year about trading my goalies.

    I started at Rask - Niemi (keepers from last year), and through a series of trades it went to Lundqvist - Howard and finally Price - Quick.

    All along the way I got big player upgrades that helped my team dominate every skater category and win the regular season of our league. And here I am still with two top goalies in Price and Quick. I will always trade down goalies (to some degree) to get bigger upgrades in skaters.

    Thanks pengwin.

  3. #3
    jcairns's Avatar
    jcairns is offline
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    2,920
    Location
    Vancouver, BC
    Rep Power
    44

    Dobber Sports Veteran

    Default Re: Goalie Volatility: A good article from Five Thirty Eight

    It is even eye-opening for a fantasy GM in a head to head league to simply look at the season stats at season's end. Here's an awesome visual way to present it to some people.

    Here are the final matchup totals in my league for goalie categories:

    Screen Shot 2014-04-23 at 12.47.40 PM.png (click for full-size)

    Notice anything interesting? On average, all the teams huddle near the .500 mark. No one did very well, and no one did very poorly. One GM (fifth down) did rather well but that was the result of lucky matchups - he wasn't top in the league in goalie wins, save %, or gaa stats. Rather, he just tended to get lucky with favourable matchups more often than the rest of us. It should be noted too that even though most teams huddle around the .500 mark, the goalie "quality" was no where near even. The final matchups are always some close to this year-over-year. Massive cluster around a .500 mark for matchups.

  4. #4
    kovalchuk17's Avatar
    kovalchuk17 is offline
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Posts
    3,915
    Rep Power
    37

    Dobber Sports Star

    Default Re: Goalie Volatility: A good article from Five Thirty Eight

    In H2H, i completely agree as there are huge fluctuations week-to-week. with enough starters you just play the best matchups and you can save your top picks for skaters

    For roto, i completely disagree as youll need the studs to keep your ratios low. although there are ways to artifically keep your ratios like like hoarding elite team backups (johnson, stalock, jones, andersen, etc.), it is only applicable for daily leagues.
    One day I will quit fantasy hockey, today is not that day.

  5. #5
    Magicstew's Avatar
    Magicstew is offline
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Posts
    5,131
    Location
    Stonewall, Mb.
    Rep Power
    50

    Dobber Sports Superstar

    Default Re: Goalie Volatility: A good article from Five Thirty Eight

    Yes it seemed in my H2H league there were week I had good and bad goalie matchups. Most of it was related to having goalies play on different nights, either my team or the opponents. M Jones saved me for about a month, especially when I had Howard injured and playing crappy. I like that idea of moving goalies in deals to upgrade other positions and keep a lesser starter.
    Piranha Hockey League est 1990 - Oakley Doakley's - 16 teams
    Pts only W=2 OL=1 SO=3 Auction Draft

    WHL - est 2016 Expansion - Glasgow Kiss - 24 teams
    25 pro players / 10 minor league players
    G,A,+/-,PPP,SOG,Hits,Blk,PIM,FOW, W,Sv,GA,SHO


  6. #6
    Rep Power
    13

    Dobber Sports Blue-Chipper

    Default Re: Goalie Volatility: A good article from Five Thirty Eight

    Read this the other day. Really had me reconsidering how much value to put on that second tier of tenders each year. Outside of the elite guys maybe we put too much of a focus on trying to predict "skill" when in the end it's relatively unpredictable
    I once traded Henrik Lundqvist and Ilya Kovalchuk in return for Peter Budaj and Henrik Zetterberg… have lived in shame ever since.

    Fantasy hockey contributor for Dobber Hockey, founder of www.darrenfantasyhockey.com. Admitted Valeri Nichushkin fanboy (of course who isn't?)

    You can find me on twitter @FantasyHockeyDK

  7. #7
    Location
    Flames!
    Rep Power
    38

    Dobber Sports Pro

    Default Re: Goalie Volatility: A good article from Five Thirty Eight

    Excellent article. 538 is a great site if you're a stats dork. They even have a great statistical analysis of the probability of various items appearing in Bob Ross paintings.

  8. #8
    Location
    Nova Scotia
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Deity

    Default Re: Goalie Volatility: A good article from Five Thirty Eight

    Interesting article.

    I wont lie, I had to read it a couple times to grasp it (doesn't help that the wife just got home from work and is trying to talk to me as I am reading) as there's a lot of info in there.
    10 Team, Points Only, Cash League

    25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
    Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
    Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt

    Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel, Mercer, JRobertson, RThomas, Kucherov, Nugent-Hopkins, Tuch, KConnor, Necas, Point, Konecny, SJarvis, Cozenz, Morrissey, Bouchard, Josi, Novak, Tolvanen, Peterka, Brink

    G- Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger


    "Cleavage is like the sun. You can look, but dont stare.. Unless you're wearing sunglasses."

  9. #9
    Top_Shelf's Avatar
    Top_Shelf is offline
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    357
    Rep Power
    16

    Dobber Sports Blue-Chipper

    Default Re: Goalie Volatility: A good article from Five Thirty Eight

    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    Interesting article.

    I wont lie, I had to read it a couple times to grasp it (doesn't help that the wife just got home from work and is trying to talk to me as I am reading) as there's a lot of info in there.
    I LOL'd


  10. #10
    Rep Power
    31

    Dobber Sports Veteran

    Default Re: Goalie Volatility: A good article from Five Thirty Eight

    I very much agree in the randomness and volatility of goalie stats. That said, I still still strongly believe in investing in top goaltending studs as they are often the exception to the rule. 2nd and 3rd tier goalies can be a total crapshoot, but having a Rask/Lundy/Quick etc provides a team with needed stability year over year.....Lundy has been a mainstay on my team for many years, and this was the first year in 6 or 7 that you couldn't set your watch by his numbers. Same with Rask, you know exactly what you are going to get from him every year, extremely low risk.

    I like to invest in at least one legit top stud G in most leagues, and then heavily invest in skaters........I usually leave my 2nd and 2rd goalie picks till quite late knowing that there are always G's that come out of nowhere and provide great value. For me, it was Steve Mason this year. I grabbed him off of waiver a couple of weeks into the season, and he ended up being a top-12 goalie play in my league.

    I agree with the volatility of goalies and that it's often wise to devalue them or move them for skaters, but I also feel this fact makes for an even stronger case to invest in that top stud goalie that you can hang your hat on.
    10 team, head-to-head, multi-cat, keep-12 keeper league. CATS: G,A,+/-,PPP,PIM,SOG,HITS BS,SHP, W,SV,SV%,GAA,SO Daily rosters of 6F, 4D, 2 Flex, 2G

    F: Crosby, Hall, Pacioretty, Hartnell, Neal, Nugent-Hopkins, Callahan, Dubinsky, Hossa, Huberdeau, Abdelkader, Bjugstad (IR)
    D: Karlsson, Hedman, Muzzin, Savard, Streit (IR)
    G: Lundqvist, Quick, Condon

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •