Let's rationally discuss Mackinnon's potential

[Kofax]

I'm surprised how many people are disagreeing with pengwin's point here, especially when he has offered up proof to back it up.

Playing Centre there are more defensive responsibilities that take away from your opportunities to contribute offensively.

Playing Wing there are less defensive responsibilities allowing you to focus more on contributing offensively.

Seems pretty straight forward and is logical.

The argument that the leagues top scorers play centre doesn't really hold water, and you guys seem to be missing the point. They play centre because they are the best players in the league and capable of putting up excellent numbers offensively while being responsible defensively. BUT, if they shifted to the wing, it is likely they could put up even higher offensive numbers (assuming they could still play with a strong centre). I haven't seen anyone provide proof of a player who has scored more at centre then at wing (although I am sure there are a few who exist, there are always outliers), while pengwin has provided multiple examples of players scoring more at wing then at centre.

Applying this to MacKinnon, there's nothing to say he isn't good enough to put up elite numbers at centre as one of the leagues best, and there's a strong chance he does. But he could likely put up even better numbers on the wing with less defensive responsibility.

[Fast Tony DeNiro]

Pengwin's argument makes sense in theory. Less defensive responsibility = more scoring chances.

But much like forwards do not stick to their lanes in the offensive zone, the same can be said in the defensive zone. If forwards get caught up ice and are chasing the puck back into their zone....if a winger gets to his zone first, he's not going to peel off and guard the point leaving the slot undefended until the center gets back. That wing is going to take over the center's responsibility and the center will pick up the wall and point once he gets back. And as the puck possessing team cycles, the three defending forwards are all going to end up moving around. Center, right/left wing.....these are simply rough guidelines on where these player's play. In reality, they are just three forwards.

So while yes, theoretically you want a center responsible enough to generally be the first forward back on defense in order to do his job, it does not always happen this way. Another note.....ever heard of the Left Wing Lock? The o-zone system that's been around forever but really got known when the Red Wings used it in the 90's? Notice it's not called the Center Lock. The wing would stay high in the o-zone in order to avoid odd-man rushes going the other way. The winger was the main defensive forward in the system, because he would be the first one back and end up patrolling the slot in the d-zone while the center attempted to create offense and then getting back to cover the half-wall. This system is pretty much the basis that all teams use in the offensive zone, with variations of course but almost always one forward will hang back a little higher in the slot, and it is almost never the center who is in the corner or below the goal line cycling to create offense.

Like I said, I do understand what Pengwin is saying. And in theory yes it makes absolute sense. I just don't know if I believe it in practice. Now zone starts, qual comp.....that sort of stuff can play into a player scoring more or less. Patrice Bergeron faces tough competition and only had 46% of his shifts start in the o-zone this season. Obviously if he starts in the offensive end 65% of the time he'd see a bump in scoring. Same with his wingers.

[jcairns]

For all those chiming in, it would be great for the discussion if you could give your guess on what Mackinnon might actually hit. This has diverged a bit from the topic, but it's still a great discussion to carry on.

[mister_mcgoo]

If you do feel like nitpicking each other's analysis, I'd love to expand on this one:
...positionally they're often in the slot so they have could scoring lanes and angles, and they're often in front of the net and perfectly positioned for tips off point shots or rebounds.

This is going to sound mean...
...and condescending...
...but did you play any organized hockey growing up?

In the offensive zone, there's no "your side", "my side", "center stays in the center", "right wing stays on the right wing"....
Players simply cycle.
They go after the puck.
Or... if their team has the puck... they go to open ice.
You understand this, I hope.

You think Crosby goes and stays in the middle of the offensive zone ice?
Gretzky?
Lemieux?
What NHL have you been watching?

God you're just determined to be a complete arsehole today aren't you?

Where did I even suggest anything remotely like that? Honestly man, I've had a lot of respect for your opinion on these boards but if you're going to continue to twist words around and be a condescending little prick just because you're losing the argument then how can you expect anyone else to have any respect for what you say? How about instead of being a jackass you just try backing up all your specious claims with some actual facts in lieu of your idle speculation?

Of course the forwards aren't locked in place, that's absurd. But to suggest that centerman don't often find themselves in the center of the ice is equally ridiculous. Offensively and defensively the center spends more time in the slot than any other player...but it doesn't follow from that that they stand there like a statue either, on the contrary they are constantly moving, and adapting to the play, especially on defense and the PK where they fill in the gaps anywhere they are needed. They also tend to spend a lot of time behind the net, setting up the play (check out a rink sometime, behind the net is actually in the center too!). Also, on average, centers tend to be bigger so they thrive parking themselves in front of the goalie (again, the net is also in the center of the ice). These are all areas of the ice that lend themselves to being point-friendly that's all I'm arguing here dickhead, if you want any more supporting evidence just let me know, I'm happy to provide

[rataylor22]

Also as has been previously stated centers often produce more as they are often in possession of the puck. There are very few examples of players who are pure snipers playing center and being successful. Stamkos and who else? Generally the center has full distribution and vision of the ice and therefore possess the puck more than his wingers.

In terms of Mackinnons projections, I think it's fair to assume anywhere from 75-95 points, and anyone who thinks they can narrow it down more after one season is lying to themselves. Honestly a 100 is possible, but there was 1 singular 90 point player and 1 100 point player this season and they were the same guy. Sorry but Mackinnon is not Crosby, so to say after his rookie season he can do something that only Crosby did this year is a little silly and outlandish. Totally possible, but he's gotta prove himself more than that. People have been calling Tavares a 90-point player for the last 3 years and he's never come all that close. Sorry, it's just really hard to do in the current NHL landscape. Until the league embraces that they have a scoring issue, you aren't going to see many 90-100 point players.

In terms of players who have been more successful at Center than at wing, names I can think of include:

Tyler Seguin
Claude Giroux
Matt Duchene
Ryan Kesler

All of these guys played wing at some point and do better at center than wing. Now you can argue it's due to player progression more than position, but there is really no way to prove what caused it. Granted, it's four names, but it's not like Peng threw up a massive list either.

[mister_mcgoo]

I can't remember entirely and I'm too lazy to look it up for sure, but weren't Perry, Kariya, Benn and Shanahan centermen prior to the pros?

Many good wingers (most?) were centers in junior/college. But to remain a center in the NHL one has to be truly elite - either an elite scorer/producer or an elite checker. Otherwise expect to play wing

uhhhh, did you miss the part where I said?:

Are they more versatile? Sure. Is it harder to be good at C? Yeah, usually it is because you have to learn to be good at lots of things, that's why you see lots of wingers who used to be centers but not the opposite. But raw talent? Nope sorry, that's a flawed chicken & egg argument.

I'm not sure if we are agreeing or disagreeing (or both?) but put it this way, a simple wording clarification and we are in complete agreement:

But to remain a center in the NHL one has to be truly elite at playing center- either an elite scorer/producer or an elite checker

i.e. playing center is a special skillset that not all players possess...but it does not follow from that that if you happen to lack that skillset that you are immediately not elite (except at C )

[SergeP]

God you're just determined to be a complete arsehole today aren't you?

Where did I even suggest anything remotely like that? Honestly man, I've had a lot of respect for your opinion on these boards but if you're going to continue to twist words around and be a condescending little prick just because you're losing the argument then how can you expect anyone else to have any respect for what you say? How about instead of being a jackass you just try backing up all your specious claims with some actual facts in lieu of your idle speculation?

Of course the forwards aren't locked in place, that's absurd. But to suggest that centerman don't often find themselves in the center of the ice is equally ridiculous. Offensively and defensively the center spends more time in the slot than any other player...but it doesn't follow from that that they stand there like a statue either, on the contrary they are constantly moving, and adapting to the play, especially on defense and the PK where they fill in the gaps anywhere they are needed. They also tend to spend a lot of time behind the net, setting up the play (check out a rink sometime, behind the net is actually in the center too!). Also, on average, centers tend to be bigger so they thrive parking themselves in front of the goalie (again, the net is also in the center of the ice). These are all areas of the ice that lend themselves to being point-friendly that's all I'm arguing here dickhead, if you want any more supporting evidence just let me know, I'm happy to provide

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[Dobber]

We need a C vs. W thread, because this thread has been highjacked.

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[Dobber]

Getting back to MacKinnon's potential - I put his upside/potential in between Tavares and Stamkos, which is above Kane and Getzlaf.

[ericdaoust]

We need a C vs. W thread, because this thread has been highjacked.

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Once you read the thread title you have to know that's not how it's going to go down.

[Spec7ral]

He's the next Eberle.