Let's rationally discuss Mackinnon's potential

[27Blue]

Imagine if Gretzky played the wing!!!!!

[kovalchuk17]

One tier above Crosby.
160-180 point range.
Pretty much guaranteed...

i laughed out loud hahaha. well-timed humour

[mister_mcgoo]

You are evaluating production at center vs. wing (for one player) incorrectly.
Centers typically lead the league in scoring because the most talented hockey players... play center.

But, here's what I'm considering:
Landeskog - Stastny (C) - Mackinnon
vs.
Landeskog - Mackinnon (C) - Stastny

Which line is likely to score more?

Oh I see, I'm doing it 'incorrectly' am I? lol
Gimme a break dude, you sound like that arrogant ass MT we used to have on here with that kind of condescending tone...you gonna lecture me on skating mechanics next?

He played C in junior and he's clearly an incredibly talented player who's only 18, you really think he can't make the jump to C in the pros? What exactly are you basing that off other than thin air?

And your comparison is nonsensical. If they keep Stastny why in the world would they shift him to wing (where he's never played afaik) and Mac at C? Especially as Mac played so well at RW all year? They wouldn't. The only scenario where that happens is if they deal Stastny and don't bring in a replacement C. And even then, who's to say he doesn't produce just as well from there? Even if it takes him an extra year or two, I'm not counting him out for it

[SergeP]

I think Mackinon will be good for 80-90 points in a typical season once he hits his prime, assuming health and the right team and philosophy. Perhaps he'll even have a few outlier seasons of 95ish points but I would gladly bet that he won't ever hit 100 in today's NHL.

[Pengwin7]

Oh I see, I'm doing it 'incorrectly' am I? lol
Gimme a break dude, you sound like that arrogant ass MT we used to have on here with that kind of condescending tone...you gonna lecture me on skating mechanics next?

He played C in junior and he's clearly an incredibly talented player who's only 18, you really think he can't make the jump to C in the pros? What exactly are you basing that off other than thin air?

And your comparison is nonsensical. If they keep Stastny why in the world would they shift him to wing (where he's never played afaik) and Mac at C? Especially as Mac played so well at RW all year? They wouldn't. The only scenario where that happens is if they deal Stastny and don't bring in a replacement C. And even then, who's to say he doesn't produce just as well from there? Even if it takes him an extra year or two, I'm not counting him out for it

You are going to give me a lecture in "condescending tone".
I love that.

Yes - agreed it makes no sense to pretend Stastny to a wing.
Let's try it again with somebody that actually could play center or wing.

Landeskog - O'Reilly (C) - Mackinnon
vs.
Landeskog - Mackinnon (C) - O'Reilly

On which line do you see Mackinnon scoring more points?

Patrick Kane has been there... wing, to center, back to wing.
There is evidence with Patrick Kane of not being successful (point-wise) at center.
And I commented & forecasted on that transition here on the forums - correctly.

I apologize for seeming condescending, but you are looking at it incorrectly when you simply look towards the NHL's leading scorers as reason that somebody in a center position will score more.
Put the player in "a vacuum" as they say.

Can he score more points on wing (where he doesn't need to focus so much on marking up defensively)?
or
Can he score more points at center (where he does need to focus on marking up defensively)?

Everything else equal... just different positions... same linemates, same TOI, same competition, etc.
At which position, center vs. wing, is a player more likely to be able to score more points?

[Fast Tony DeNiro]

Patrick Kane also never really played center throughout his career. I'm sure he played when he was younger, but he played wing in London and played wing in the NHL. Of course moving a winger to center is going to cause a drop in production.....I'm really surprised you're trying to hammer home this comparison Pengwin, it's obviously flawed.

As mentioned above, the majority of the top scorers play center. All while covering their defensive responsibilities. The best players will produce, it doesn't matter what position they're playing. Yes Toews could probably score 85+ points if the Blackhawks let him go offensively a bit more. But they don't so he doesn't. The Stars let Seguin go this year, and he went off. The Pens let Crosby and Malkin go, and they put up NES numbers. The Lightning let Stamkos go and he scores 60 goals. All centers.

[Gentle Yeti]

The real question is if the Avs brass are still regretting picking him instead of Seth Jones...

[Pengwin7]

Patrick Kane also never really played center throughout his career. I'm sure he played when he was younger, but he played wing in London and played wing in the NHL. Of course moving a winger to center is going to cause a drop in production.....I'm really surprised you're trying to hammer home this comparison Pengwin, it's obviously flawed.

As mentioned above, the majority of the top scorers play center. All while covering their defensive responsibilities. The best players will produce, it doesn't matter what position they're playing. Yes Toews could probably score 85+ points if the Blackhawks let him go offensively a bit more. But they don't so he doesn't. The Stars let Seguin go this year, and he went off. The Pens let Crosby and Malkin go, and they put up NES numbers. The Lightning let Stamkos go and he scores 60 goals. All centers.

It's not flawed.
Mackinnon has yet to play a long-stretch of center in the NHL.
He has played wing for the majority of this season... and I'm simply trying to explain that there is more potential for him to score larger quantities on the wing (proof, proof now... he's been doing it) than score those same quantities at center.
At some point, Colorado may transition him to center - and there may be hiccups there.

Again - you (& McGoo) are simply listing a list of players that play center. And saying "They play center, they score high points."
Not enough thought.
Those players score well because they are the most-talented players in the league.
It has little to do with the "position"... center, wing... skilled players will score.
If you put them on the wing, they'd still score... perhaps more.

The Lightning have been experimenting with Stamkos on the wing lately. Oh no... is that going to hurt his production?
I'd love to hear anybody say that Stamkos is going start producing less because he's playing on the wing.
If anything - I believe it frees him up a little more.

And Stamkos - as a sniper, is a better fit on the wing in the NHL... my opinion.
Same with Jeff Carter, to me... he's a better NHL scorer on the wing.

Obviously, a team is going to put their best two-way player at center.
But that same two-way player would do much better scoring points on wing... vs. center.

I'm really suprised that so many people (with all the years we have of watching skilled centers in different positions - such as at the Olympics) would disagree with this.

Forget Gretzky, forget Lemieux... forget all the great ONLY centers.
Let's talk about some players that played some center, some wing.

Where did they score more points, per game?

What about Joe Pavelski this year?
Did anybody take note of his primary position this year?

And where was Jamie Benn playing primarily this year?
Anybody want to reply on that one?
Perhaps our Jamie Benn/Tyler Seguin experts can come in to let us know who the wing is and who the center is.
I want to hear those folk on record.

We were all very impressed by Ryan O'Reilly's 55pt season a few years ago... as a center.
This year... 64pts... on wing.

There's a bunch more.
A. bunch.
More scoring is available when you don't have to be a dedicated two-way center.

[mister_mcgoo]

You are going to give me a lecture in "condescending tone".
I love that.

Yes - agreed it makes no sense to pretend Stastny to a wing.
Let's try it again with somebody that actually could play center or wing.

Landeskog - O'Reilly (C) - Mackinnon
vs.
Landeskog - Mackinnon (C) - O'Reilly

On which line do you see Mackinnon scoring more points?

Patrick Kane has been there... wing, to center, back to wing.
There is evidence with Patrick Kane of not being successful (point-wise) at center.
And I commented & forecasted on that transition here on the forums - correctly.

I apologize for seeming condescending, but you are looking at it incorrectly when you simply look towards the NHL's leading scorers as reason that somebody in a center position will score more.
Put the player in "a vacuum" as they say.

Can he score more points on wing (where he doesn't need to focus so much on marking up defensively)?
or
Can he score more points at center (where he does need to focus on marking up defensively)?

Everything else equal... just different positions... same linemates, same TOI, same competition, etc.
At which position, center vs. wing, is a player more likely to be able to score more points?

You're making even less and less sense as this goes on.
Patrick Kane played wing all throughout junior so of course he struggled when they tried him in the middle. How does that have any bearing on MacKinnon, a natural center? I'll save you the trouble of making something up...it doesn't.

More baffling is that you're making that argument now after having stated:

Centers typically lead the league in scoring because the most talented hockey players... play center.

So what, Patrick Kane isn't talented? What about Ovechkin, St Louis, Sedin, Perry, Benn, etc? No talent ass-clowns all huh? What about Gordie ****ing Howe? Shanahan, Robitaille, Lafluer, Richard, Gartner, Kariya, Bossy...the list is endless. That's an ignorant statement.

The reality is that players excel at center because they have an affinity for the position, and they have been developed at that position from an early age so they understand all the roles and responsibilities entailed. It's not because they are inately more talented than their winger counterparts...Are they more versatile? Sure. Is it harder to be good at C? Yeah, usually it is because you have to learn to be good at lots of things, that's why you see lots of wingers who used to be centers but not the opposite. But raw talent? Nope sorry, that's a flawed chicken & egg argument.

So if a player has the talent and affinity to be a top 6 C (as MacKinnon does) then they will excel at that position and they will usually score more than they would at wing. Centers handle the puck more, positionally they're often in the slot so they have could scoring lanes and angles, and they're often in front of the net and perfectly positioned for tips off point shots or rebounds.


As far as this goes:

Landeskog - O'Reilly (C) - Mackinnon
vs.
Landeskog - Mackinnon (C) - O'Reilly

I reiterate, if he goes to C it likely hurts him some in the short-term (simply because playing well at C in the pros is hard), but long-term it may well be the best choice for him and his work ethic and drive are enviable so there's no reason to believe he can't do it.

The bottom line is that trying to argue that there is this hard and fast rule where you can evaluate players 'in a vaccuum' and say that a move from one position to another is going to result in a net positive or negative is really short-sighted. It totally depends on the player, his linemates, the team, the PP makeup, etc.

[Fast Tony DeNiro]

It's not flawed.
Mackinnon has yet to play a long-stretch of center in the NHL.
He has played wing for the majority of this season... and I'm simply trying to explain that there is more potential for him to score larger quantities on the wing (proof, proof now... he's been doing it) than score those same quantities at center.
At some point, Colorado may transition him to center - and there may be hiccups there.

Again - you (& McGoo) are simply listing a list of players that play center. And saying "They play center, they score high points."
Not enough thought.
Those players score well because they are the most-talented players in the league.
It has little to do with the "position"... center, wing... skilled players will score.
If you put them on the wing, they'd still score... perhaps more.

The Lightning have been experimenting with Stamkos on the wing lately. Oh no... is that going to hurt his production?
I'd love to hear anybody say that Stamkos is going start producing less because he's playing on the wing.
If anything - I believe it frees him up a little more.

And Stamkos - as a sniper, is a better fit on the wing in the NHL... my opinion.
Same with Jeff Carter, to me... he's a better NHL scorer on the wing.

Obviously, a team is going to put their best two-way player at center.
But that same two-way player would do much better scoring points on wing... vs. center.

I'm really suprised that so many people (with all the years we have of watching skilled centers in different positions - such as at the Olympics) would disagree with this.

Forget Gretzky, forget Lemieux... forget all the great ONLY centers.
Let's talk about some players that played some center, some wing.

Where did they score more points, per game?

What about Joe Pavelski this year?
Did anybody take note of his primary position this year?

And where was Jamie Benn playing primarily this year?
Anybody want to reply on that one?
Perhaps our Jamie Benn/Tyler Seguin experts can come in to let us know who the wing is and who the center is.
I want to hear those folk on record.

We were all very impressed by Ryan O'Reilly's 55pt season a few years ago... as a center.
This year... 64pts... on wing.

There's a bunch more.
A. bunch.
More scoring is available when you don't have to be a dedicated two-way center.

I don't know man, I just see a blanket statement here in a place where a blanket statement is not needed. The most skilled players in the league play center.....so it makes sense that they lead the league in scoring, right? I do understand what you're trying to get at, I just don't know that I agree at all. If the potential for more scoring comes from the wing, then why aren't wingers consistently dominating the list of scoring leaders? If playing center is so grueling (which it is), why are centers always at the top of the league?

Seguin and Benn may have switched back and forth a bit this season, but this year was the first time you could really look at Seguin and say "he's a center". And oddly enough this is the year he busted out. Malkin, Duchene, Seguin, Zetterberg, countless others....they've all split time between wing and center at different points in their careers. And I don't think there's been any discernible uptick in scoring from their time at wing. In fact, I'd go so far as to say the exact opposite. If a player is capable of playing both positions competently, I think there tends to be a boost in scoring when they play the position with more responsibility. The center tends to be the puck-carrier, and playmaker. Being in on more offensive plays leads to more points.

As for your bolded player statement at the bottom. Pavelski's scoring boost may have had something to do with playing almost exclusively with Thornton this season, compared to Havlat or Wingels or whoever he normally plays with when he's centering the 3rd line. Of course playing wing on the 1st line with one of the best playmakers in the league is going to boost numbers. Now if Pavelski is playing wing on the 3rd line compared to center on the 3rd line, does he score more? No way to tell, but I would really guess no. And O'Reilly....scoring 55 points as a 20 year old at center is impressive as shit. Scoring 64 points as a 22 year old at wing is also impressive. Now was that 9 point jump in scoring due to being 2 years older, or playing wing in the top 6? Probably a mix of both, but I don't think you can point to his position and definitively say he scored more because he was on the wing.

[Dobber]

I can't remember entirely and I'm too lazy to look it up for sure, but weren't Perry, Kariya, Benn and Shanahan centermen prior to the pros?

Many good wingers (most?) were centers in junior/college. But to remain a center in the NHL one has to be truly elite - either an elite scorer/producer or an elite checker. Otherwise expect to play wing

[jcairns]

I can't remember entirely and I'm too lazy to look it up for sure, but weren't Perry, Kariya, Benn and Shanahan centermen prior to the pros?

Many good wingers (most?) were centers in junior/college. But to remain a center in the NHL one has to be truly elite - either an elite scorer/producer or an elite checker. Otherwise expect to play wing

I believe they were. And that said, I do have to lean a bit toward pengwin in that if you play wing your game is a bit more open. If I were a fantasy GM, I'd prefer mack on the wing with a bit less defensive responsibility. Long-term it might not be too different, but I can't help but imagine the difference between wing and C might be at least a few points per season.

[rataylor22]

This argument has clearly gotten out of hand. I only have a few inputs. If you watched Dallas this year, Seguin was clearly the center and Benn was clearly the winger. Benn stepped in to take faceoffs often because he is better at them, but in terms of what position they played after the draw, it was clearly defined. Taking the draw doesn't define your position except the odd time in the defensive zone when you have to follow your guy. Hell, Jarome Iginla has taken faceoffs his whole life. He did it in Calgary all the time and he did it for Krejci in Boston sometimes this year. Would you ever call Iggy the center on that line? I play defence on my rec team and I take draws sometimes because I'm better at them, I'm still clearly a defenceman.

Fact is, some players are more comfortable in their "natural position". Seguin is on record saying he's much more comfortable at center than the wing. Benn on the other hand is on record saying he's much more comfortable on the wing. These scenarios exist all through the NHL, the Seguin/Benn one is just an easy scenario to analyze. I don't think playing center or wing hurts or helps your production, and I don't necessarily thing the most skilled players always play center. What determines it much more is chemistry with your linemates, individual talent, and playing where you feel most comfortable.

[Luffy D Monkey]

I'd look at Tavares's point totals and progressions through his NHL career and base my projections off of that.

Considering Mackinnon is already one of the best skaters in the NHL, so he's faster than Tavares, has just as crazy of a shot, he's more physical than Tavares. Tavares probably has better passing, playmaking vision and hand-eye, and experience, but I don't see where else he's better.

Obviously we can't tell the future. Point totals could fluctate for a variety of reasons. Linemates, coaching, injuries, personal issues, injuries we never hear about and never know about which IMO is a huge contributing factory for fantasy and real life hockey that gets consistently overlooked, you name it.

[Pengwin7]

The reality is that players excel at center because they have an affinity for the position, and they have been developed at that position from an early age so they understand all the roles and responsibilities entailed. It's not because they are inately more talented than their winger counterparts...Are they more versatile? Sure. Is it harder to be good at C? Yeah, usually it is because you have to learn to be good at lots of things, that's why you see lots of wingers who used to be centers but not the opposite. But raw talent? Nope sorry, that's a flawed chicken & egg argument.

So if a player has the talent and affinity to be a top 6 C (as MacKinnon does) then they will excel at that position and they will usually score more than they would at wing. Centers handle the puck more, positionally they're often in the slot so they have could scoring lanes and angles, and they're often in front of the net and perfectly positioned for tips off point shots or rebounds.

Well - we should both be careful about nitpicking each other's comments when there is intent there.

I do not intend to say that ALL centers are more skilled than ALL wingers.
But generically, if you look at a thousand youth hockey teams, the best skill will be found at center.
And that "best skill" doesn't develop BECAUSE it's at center, the "best skill" is placed at center - and then, develops there.

So, yes... there is some chicken & egg there.
Coach sees the talent, player is slotted at center.

(Same in baseball, where almost all good pitchers come through their junior careers as Starting Pitchers and then 95% of Relief Pitchers are converted Starters.)

With Mackinnon (& many other centers), he's not going to excel better at center just because he came up as a center.
That's just wrong-thinking.

It's like telling Lebron James that if you place him... right now... on a grade school team... that Lebron would excel better at guard or forward... because Lebron, well Lebron... Lebron's not a center.
But if Lebron is playing in a league where the average player is 5' tall, a coach should damn well put Lebron 3' from the basket and feed him the ball.
That position... is center.


If you do feel like nitpicking each other's analysis, I'd love to expand on this one:
...positionally they're often in the slot so they have could scoring lanes and angles, and they're often in front of the net and perfectly positioned for tips off point shots or rebounds.

This is going to sound mean...
...and condescending...
...but did you play any organized hockey growing up?

In the offensive zone, there's no "your side", "my side", "center stays in the center", "right wing stays on the right wing"....
Players simply cycle.
They go after the puck.
Or... if their team has the puck... they go to open ice.
You understand this, I hope.

You think Crosby goes and stays in the middle of the offensive zone ice?
Gretzky?
Lemieux?
What NHL have you been watching?

Once a team enters the offensive zone, there is no "sides" or "areas".
Offensive players buzz all around, and the most creative passers - can be found anywhere around the perimeter... or as Gretzky used to be... behind the net.

This ain't Chex bubble hockey... the right winger ain't glued on a stick to a path only up the right side of the ice.
Delightful to imagine, sure.

But... in real hockey... the right winger sometimes ends up on the left side of the offensive zone.
And the center... gosh, I've seen him on the right boards and the left boards.
I saw Mackinnon on both sides on the same shift once.
I swear, once, when he was a center in junior, I even saw him in the corner battling for the puck.
In the corner!!!
I was yelling at him "Get out of the corner... get into the middle of the ice... where you belong... you are playing center... now go there... you are supposed to be there to tip a point shot!!!"

That Mackinnon...