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Thread: Buy Low or Avoid?

  1. #1
    Yonald's Avatar
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    Default Buy Low or Avoid?

    Hey guys, after every season i usually make a list of players to target who may be buy lows. Are the following guys buy lows or should I just avoid them?


    Rick Nash
    Jeff Carter
    Loui Eriksson
    Tyler Ennis
    Mike Ribiero
    Brad Richards
    Ryan Kesler
    Mike Richards
    Bobby Ryan

    Dan Boyle


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    Default Re: Buy Low or Avoid?

    I would be looking to buy:
    Kesler... on a new team... he'll be out to prove everybody he's an NHL C1.
    Ennis... too much heart to fail.
    Carter... he has "prove it" too... especially if LA gets eliminated and people start chirping his dedication like in PHI.

    I would not be looking to buy:
    Brad Richards - meh.
    Mike Richards - meh.
    Bobby Ryan - meh.

    Wildcards:
    Loui Eriksson... I still think he has it... but he's a chemistry guy and this may have been a learning year.
    Rick Nash... he has all the tools, but he didn't seem to jive this year with his centers.
    Mike Ribeiro... an incredible player with the right linemates - but I don't see them in Phoenix.
    Dan Boyle - I don't think he'll be back in San Jose unless they win the cup. But I could see a few teams going after him as a RH stick for their PP on a 1 or 2-year contract: Detroit (Kronwall LH), Dallas Goligoski (LH), back to TB (Hedman - LH).

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    Default Re: Buy Low or Avoid?

    Buy lows:

    Kesler: I don't see any problems with him bouncing back next year, even in Vancouver

    Nash: Still managed to score 26 goals in 65 games this year. Only downside is that his assists total was lower than usual this year, but I think it should be back up if keeps playing with Stepan and St.Louis next year. Plus, he's still getting a tonne of shots on goal.

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    Default Re: Buy Low or Avoid?

    Avoid
    Kesler: I'll come from the other side here. As much as I agree with the statements made above that he is going to want to prove himself and will do his absolute best with a new team, I just feel there's too many miles on that horse to make it happen over a full season.
    M. Richards/B.Richards/B.Ryan: I'm on board with with thses guys being a meh. Especially Ryan who had his chance to bounce back in a new situation and missed the boat.
    Ennis: As much as I like the guy, Buffalo looks like it's going to be a tough place to bounce back.

    Buy
    Nash: I feel a lot of last year had to do with the concussion and injuries. There's definitely some risk, but there's a decent floor and it's likely all that you'll have to pay right now.
    Boyle: He'll likely remain a top guy for another season or two.

    In Between
    Carter: I feel like he is what he is right now and that this season was representative.
    Ribeiro/Eriksson: See P7's analysis. Perfect.

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    Default Re: Buy Low or Avoid?

    Quote Originally Posted by Yonald View Post
    Hey guys, after every season i usually make a list of players to target who may be buy lows. Are the following guys buy lows or should I just avoid them?

    Rick Nash
    Jeff Carter
    Loui Eriksson
    Tyler Ennis
    Mike Ribiero
    Brad Richards
    Ryan Kesler

    Mike Richards
    Bobby Ryan
    Dan Boyle
    Ugh. I don't know what to think on some of these guys. All I know is that I had all of the bolded ones on my Dynasty team at some point this year....Brutal.

    I don't see a lot of buy-low here because I think anyone owning them knows that they are capable of bounce-backs and will look for relatively decent value.
    I also think a bunch of them will have summers that might dramatically change their values: Kesler and Richards could be in new places. Eriksson could move up the depth chart if Iggy moves on. Ennis could get some new linemates (either positively) or competition (negatively).
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    Default Re: Buy Low or Avoid?

    I'm not buying a huge bounceback for any of your list, especially with your league settings. Added negative in a keeper is that all these guys are getting old or quite old. If I had to choose and they were all still on the draft table, I think Bobby Ryan and Rick Nash hold the most keeper value for sure.

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    Default Re: Buy Low or Avoid?

    The only one I would buy low on is Nash. Since Ryan played awesome until an injury a few months back, I don't think you can buy low on him (and truthfully, probably not Nash either).

    I'd avoid the rest.

    Kesler is what, four seasons since his last good year?

    Eriksson has struggled the last couple of seasons.

    Ennis plays on bad team that won't be getting better anytime soon.

    Ribiero isn't in a great situation in Phoenix.

    B. Richards and Boyle has too many miles on them.

    M. Richards and Carter play too much in a defence-first system.

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    Default Re: Buy Low or Avoid?

    Bobby Ryan was a PPG through the first couple months before he got injured and tried playing through a hernia for the next 40 games. If you can get him for cheaper than usual, I would definitely do so. He's the only one on the list I would actively pursue.

    Nash is possible....still scored at a mid 30 goal pace, those assists are just awful and I don't know how much of that was him and how much was janky linemates or whatever. Nash is no Adam Oates but 13 assists is a little ridiculous, especially when Nash averaged like 4 shots per game....someone has to put back at least a few of those rebounds you'd think. Expect that number to trend back up next season.

    Eriksson is now at two straight disappointing seasons. He's still too young to think it's all over but I'm baffled with him, these down years just came out of nowhere. And being stuck in Boston's depth....If you consider 50 points a good buy low then I suppose he fits, but don't expect 65.

    I just stay away from Kesler. Too much injury risk, and really outside of two seasons he's been pretty "eh" scoring-wise in his career. That Vancouver PP doesn't hum like it used to, and without the gimme PP points there just isn't the 70 point upside with Kes.
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    Default Re: Buy Low or Avoid?

    they are all worth buying low on

    the issue is figuring out what exactly you are buying and what that is worth

    as long as you have a realistic idea of what these guys are likely to produce and pay considerably less for it, then as long as they are players worth rostering in your league they are worth going after
     
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    Default Re: Buy Low or Avoid?

    I think the only one you will be able to buy low on that is worth buying at all is Loui Eriksson. Maybe Bobby Ryan but I doubt the owners will sell low on him right now.
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    Default Re: Buy Low or Avoid?

    Carter and Erikkson for me.
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  12. #12
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    Default Re: Buy Low or Avoid?

    Kesler, Ryan, Ericksson would be the one I would target. Depends what you have to pay. Maybe try and get them throw in a deal with a better player for one of your better players.
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