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Thread: 2014 Rookies. Do I Draft One 2nd round?

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    Default 2014 Rookies. Do I Draft One 2nd round?

    In our league we have 6 keepers, so during redraft goalies tend to go 1st round. What round do you think Sam Bennett/Reinhart will be drafted in? MacKinnon was drafted in the 3rd round. I no longer have my 3rd round pick nor my 6th, do I take a stab at one of the Sam’s as a 2nd round pick (23rd overall)? I’d guess Ekblad will go 1st (panthers), then Bennett (Buffalo), and Reinhart could go to NYI to get the bros together. I guess I’m asking, what player is most likely to produce as a rookie next yr. Drouin is on someones team being kept already, I’ve asked the owner.
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    Default Re: 2014 Rookies. Do I Draft One 2nd round?

    in your league i am drafting them like 45 point players, no way i take them in the 2nd round
     
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    Default Re: 2014 Rookies. Do I Draft One 2nd round?

    Quote Originally Posted by 2014olympicgold View Post
    In our league we have 6 keepers, so during redraft goalies tend to go 1st round. What round do you think Sam Bennett/Reinhart will be drafted in? MacKinnon was drafted in the 3rd round. I no longer have my 3rd round pick nor my 6th, do I take a stab at one of the Sam’s as a 2nd round pick (23rd overall)? I’d guess Ekblad will go 1st (panthers), then Bennett (Buffalo), and Reinhart could go to NYI to get the bros together. I guess I’m asking, what player is most likely to produce as a rookie next yr. Drouin is on someones team being kept already, I’ve asked the owner.
    Honestly, I'd say let the rookies go until the later rounds.
    My reasoning is that you are in a limited keeper league (keep 6) -- so there is TONS of good, and more importantly: established players waiting for you in the 2nd round. Looks like you are dropping E Kane, Kronwall, Bernier etc... -- I think I'd focus on picking up any/all of those guys before going after the rookies.
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    Default Re: 2014 Rookies. Do I Draft One 2nd round?

    Quote Originally Posted by Beareo View Post
    Honestly, I'd say let the rookies go until the later rounds.
    My reasoning is that you are in a limited keeper league (keep 6) -- so there is TONS of good, and more importantly: established players waiting for you in the 2nd round. Looks like you are dropping E Kane, Kronwall, Bernier etc... -- I think I'd focus on picking up any/all of those guys before going after the rookies.
    Agree with the above, I would be looking to add another top starting goalie with your new stats. This draft class may take a couple years to develop, so let the other guys draft potential. Almost 50% of your stats will be for goalies so you need another workhorse. Limited keeper so should be some good players available early.
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    Default Re: 2014 Rookies. Do I Draft One 2nd round?

    Agree with the others, there aren't any rookies worth drafting that early in your draft.
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    Default Re: 2014 Rookies. Do I Draft One 2nd round?

    Goalie stats will only be 1/3rd of our categories moving forward. W, SA, S%, GAA = 4. G, A, Pts, PPP, +/-, FW, PIM, TOI =8. Rookies would kill TOI stat. 1 player at 10minutes would destroy a team’s average. I was just seeing all these rookies this yr go HAM, but the draft class last yr to this yr is completely different.

    As for goalies, I was planning on drafting 1st round a goalie, then snag Ramo late (4th round). He will hopefully fall due to splitting his job with 2 other people last yr, which deflated his stats. When he was the clear cut starter, he was a solid goalie. Any goalie 4th round and later are either huge assets, or complete busts. Reimer = bust, Bernier = Asset, Lethonen = Asset, Nabokov = Bust, Bishop = Asset, Dubnyk = Bust. Anderson may even fall enough to take the chance. His stats show every other yr he goes lights out, plus a contract yr might motivate him. Rask, *Stud First Round*, Ramo could be a great trio. Or Even Rask, *Stud First Round*, Anderson, Lehner (last round pick), would be a solid 4some. However, if any team has Rask, then drafts a Stud can’t have bad goaltending.
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    Default Re: 2014 Rookies. Do I Draft One 2nd round?

    Based on how shallow your league is, I likely wouldn't draft any of the rookies from this years draft class in your league. Maybe as a flier in one of the last few rounds, but I'd be looking for someone who would have a better chance of contributing there. I can't see any of the rookies being keepers this year or next (top 70 in the league).

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    Default Re: 2014 Rookies. Do I Draft One 2nd round?

    Thanks, I wasn't really thinking of drafting a rookie so early, but I saw how Mac has done, and the guy in our league keeping Drouin. I've also heard people saying they're going to draft Kuzy early. So I was thinking if I should have joined this arms race that seems to be happening. But our league has only 5 yrs left in it, so players just getting to their prime will still be keepers in 5 yrs (one would hope).
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    Default Re: 2014 Rookies. Do I Draft One 2nd round?

    in a 12 team keep 6 keeping Drouin is pretty moronic imo as is going for Kuzy early

    unless you expect a young guy to displace one of your keepers or at least be a fringe keeper where you could trade him for a valuable piece to take a run at the deadline you draft them exactly where you expect them to produce just like you would a 35 year old player

    also i would give serious thought to Kronwall over JVR as a keeper
     
    6 Team Yahoo H2H Daily Today League
    G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, GWG
    W, GAA, SV, SV%
    3 C, 3 LW, 3 RW, 3 F, 6 D, 2 G, 5 Bench
    Keep 10 - 6 F, 3 D, 1 G


    14 Team Yahoo H2H Daily Tomorrow League
    G, A, -/+, PIM, PPP, SHP, SOG, FW
    W, GAA, SV, SV%, SHO
    3 C, 3 LW, 3 RW, 5 D, 1 U, 2 G, 5 Bench
    Keep 14 - 2 G Max

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    Default Re: 2014 Rookies. Do I Draft One 2nd round?

    The guy who has Drouin has a verrryyyy young team. We had 2 people drop out half way through this yr, so our commish (owner of Drouin) dismantled his team to make the other 2 more appealing to people who would take over the teams. He’s a bit of a fan boy of Drouin’s too; he owns a draft puck signed by him, and a jersey signed by him. I’m hesitant to join this arms race, but if I keep St Louis, I may need to get someone who would replace him next yr. As a safety net.

    As for keeping Kronwall over JVR, I will have to do some serious thought over the off-season. The coach situation could kill JvR’s offensive stats if Trotz is hired. Also, Kronwall had a bit of a career yr, and at his age I’m a bit hesitant. E.kane could be traded to an offensive team, boosting his value. And St Louis has done decently in the playoffs. I am seriously trying to flip Kane, St Louis, and Voracek for a better keeper. I’m not afraid to overpay a lot either because I only can keep 6.
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    Default Re: 2014 Rookies. Do I Draft One 2nd round?

    in a keep 6, keep 4 forwards considering most teams likely keep 1 and 1 of D and G, there is really no reason to have young teams and look that far into the future imo

    as for replacement for MSL sure i have no problem with having that in the back of your mind but keeper replacements are not just rookie players or players under 25 so you should be drafting the best player not the youngest player

    as for Kronwall he put up a similar PPG last season as well, it isn't as much about a career year as it is that he is the number 1 defenseman on that team with Lidstrom out of the picture, and he is only 33 years old so i am not sure what the issue with his age is exactly

    people need to get past this young is automatically the best mentality
     
    6 Team Yahoo H2H Daily Today League
    G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, GWG
    W, GAA, SV, SV%
    3 C, 3 LW, 3 RW, 3 F, 6 D, 2 G, 5 Bench
    Keep 10 - 6 F, 3 D, 1 G


    14 Team Yahoo H2H Daily Tomorrow League
    G, A, -/+, PIM, PPP, SHP, SOG, FW
    W, GAA, SV, SV%, SHO
    3 C, 3 LW, 3 RW, 5 D, 1 U, 2 G, 5 Bench
    Keep 14 - 2 G Max

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    Default Re: 2014 Rookies. Do I Draft One 2nd round?

    I did forget that last yr was a half yr when looking at kronwall’s stats sorry. I do tend to draft in the first few rounds “best player available” regardless of age. Other people in my league don’t do that, they go with “best young player available”. So I think I could snag Kronwall over JvR next yr. When looking at D-man’s stats, I do this little trick of added 10-15 points to compare them to forwards. It’s a very crude way of doing it, but helps a bit. So Kronwall’s 49 pts as a D-man, I would see that as a 59-64 point forward. So would I rather have a 61 point forward in JvR, or a 49 point D-man in Kronwall. It’s a very close situation.
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    Default Re: 2014 Rookies. Do I Draft One 2nd round?

    don't forget you are adding time on ice next season which tilts Kronwall over JVR imo

    not to mention the PPP bump
     
    6 Team Yahoo H2H Daily Today League
    G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, GWG
    W, GAA, SV, SV%
    3 C, 3 LW, 3 RW, 3 F, 6 D, 2 G, 5 Bench
    Keep 10 - 6 F, 3 D, 1 G


    14 Team Yahoo H2H Daily Tomorrow League
    G, A, -/+, PIM, PPP, SHP, SOG, FW
    W, GAA, SV, SV%, SHO
    3 C, 3 LW, 3 RW, 5 D, 1 U, 2 G, 5 Bench
    Keep 14 - 2 G Max

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    Default Re: 2014 Rookies. Do I Draft One 2nd round?

    you know your league though if you think you have a better chance of getting Kronwall back instead of JVR that's probably the way to go

    i am just looking at it from a straight value perspective as that is all i can do without knowing the exact drafting habits of your league's GMs
     
    6 Team Yahoo H2H Daily Today League
    G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, GWG
    W, GAA, SV, SV%
    3 C, 3 LW, 3 RW, 3 F, 6 D, 2 G, 5 Bench
    Keep 10 - 6 F, 3 D, 1 G


    14 Team Yahoo H2H Daily Tomorrow League
    G, A, -/+, PIM, PPP, SHP, SOG, FW
    W, GAA, SV, SV%, SHO
    3 C, 3 LW, 3 RW, 5 D, 1 U, 2 G, 5 Bench
    Keep 14 - 2 G Max

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    Default Re: 2014 Rookies. Do I Draft One 2nd round?

    Quote Originally Posted by 2014olympicgold View Post
    When looking at D-man’s stats, I do this little trick of added 10-15 points to compare them to forwards. It’s a very crude way of doing it, but helps a bit. So Kronwall’s 49 pts as a D-man, I would see that as a 59-64 point forward. So would I rather have a 61 point forward in JvR, or a 49 point D-man in Kronwall. It’s a very close situation.
    In a start 6 F and 4 D, you really have to add more than 10-15 points to D to get the equivalent. Of course, you can do it the very analytical way like Pengwin does on these boards, but if you want a crude measure I'd be adding 20-25 points to D to get the equivalent. The fact you don't count any "D" focused stats like hits or blocks make it absolutely critical in a start 6F and 4D that you have point-producing D men.

    Add on 25 points. A guy like Subban (55-60 points) is equal to an 80 pt forward.

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