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Thread: Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

  1. #16
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    Default Re: Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

    Quote Originally Posted by Feadur View Post
    I dont think that's how PDO works. PDO is shooting%+save%, so if varlamov is putting up a really high save%, but the forwards only have a normal (or even lower) shooting%, then their production will stay the same or improve next year, even if their PDO drops because varly starts letting in goals. if you want to really check how their luck-adusted values are, i've cooked up something.

    Fenwick is all shots on goal and missed shots. a certain number of these will go in. if a player is on the ice and his team scores, theres a chance he'll get a point. so a good shooting percentage is (on-ice goals-for)/(on-ice fenwick-for). the average for a top-100 forward for this is around 7.2%. For defencemen its closer to 6.3%
    the colorado players shot at
    barrie 8.5903%
    duchene 8.2560%
    landeskog 8.4004%
    o'reilly 7.8217%
    stastny 8.1136%
    parenteau 6.7183%
    johnson 7.1595%
    mackinnon 8.7687%

    If they play all 82 games next year and put up the same number of fenwick shots and their shooting % drops to the average, you can expect the following point totals

    Barrie, 38
    Duchene, 73
    Landeskog, 59
    O'Reilly, 63
    Stastny, 65
    Parenteau, 56
    Johnson, 37
    Mackinnon, 54

    realistically you should expect a little more for the younger guys as they improve, but THOSE are your luck-adjusted stats.
    If healthy, there is ZERO chance that MacKinnon and Landeskog only score 54 and 59 points respectively next year. NONE. I don't give two craps about what "Fenwick" suggests lol.
    8-GM / WK-H2H
    Forwards: G=2, A=1, PP/SH= +1, GWG= +2, Shootout G=1, HT= +1
    D-Men/Captain: G=3/A=2
    Goalies: W=3, OTL=1, SO= +2, SV= .10


    Start = 13F, 6D, 2G / Keep 44 (3G)
    Captain: Matthews
    (F): MacKinnon, Pasta, Marner, Rantanen, Malkin, Barkov, M.Tkachuk, W.Nylander, Pettersson, Gaudreau, Laine, Keller, Miller, B.Tkachuk, Stutzle, DeBrincat, L.Raymond, K.Johnson, Cozens, Quinn, Guenther, Kulich, Cooley
    (D): Makar, Dahlin, Q.Hughes, Ekblad, Rielly, Werenski, Letang, Jones, Chychrun,
    Seider, Edvinsson, Jiricek, Korchinski, Mintyukov, Ceulemans, Hutson
    (G): Shesterkin, Demko, Vejmelka

  2. #17
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    Default Re: Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

    Quote Originally Posted by fungchen3 View Post
    If healthy, there is ZERO chance that MacKinnon and Landeskog only score 54 and 59 points respectively next year. NONE. I don't give two craps about what "Fenwick" suggests lol.
    Obviously, yes, true.
    Feadur was just giving us a statistical taste of where their numbers should have been THIS season, with SH% luck removed.
    (I had a long post about Mackinnon actually being about a 55pt player this year in a previous thread. Nice to have some statistical backing for making a good prediction of 55pts this season!!!)

  3. #18
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    Default Re: Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Obviously, yes, true.
    Feadur was just giving us a statistical taste of where their numbers should have been THIS season, with SH% luck removed.
    (I had a long post about Mackinnon actually being about a 55pt player this year in a previous post. Nice to have some statistical backing!!!)
    I loathe algorithms and complex statistics when trying to predict the future success of players. Gimme knowledge of the game, intuition, and a good set of eyes any day of the week instead. There are so many intangibles, changes, emotional curves and nuances that factor into a player's current and future success it's not even funny. Historical statistics and fancy algorithms can't predict any of that IMO.
    8-GM / WK-H2H
    Forwards: G=2, A=1, PP/SH= +1, GWG= +2, Shootout G=1, HT= +1
    D-Men/Captain: G=3/A=2
    Goalies: W=3, OTL=1, SO= +2, SV= .10


    Start = 13F, 6D, 2G / Keep 44 (3G)
    Captain: Matthews
    (F): MacKinnon, Pasta, Marner, Rantanen, Malkin, Barkov, M.Tkachuk, W.Nylander, Pettersson, Gaudreau, Laine, Keller, Miller, B.Tkachuk, Stutzle, DeBrincat, L.Raymond, K.Johnson, Cozens, Quinn, Guenther, Kulich, Cooley
    (D): Makar, Dahlin, Q.Hughes, Ekblad, Rielly, Werenski, Letang, Jones, Chychrun,
    Seider, Edvinsson, Jiricek, Korchinski, Mintyukov, Ceulemans, Hutson
    (G): Shesterkin, Demko, Vejmelka

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    Default Re: Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

    Quote Originally Posted by fungchen3 View Post
    I loathe algorithms and complex statistics when trying to predict the future success of players. Gimme knowledge of the game, intuition, and a good set of eyes any day of the week instead. There are so many intangibles, changes, emotional curves and nuances that factor into a player's current and future success it's not even funny. Historical statistics and fancy algorithms can't predict any of that IMO.
    Hockey scouts, coaches, GMs, analysts & prognosticators have done well using either/or.
    I think that one needs BOTH to excel to the top of the pack in the modern world of analytics.
    This is no longer just an eye-scout's NHL.

    I aspire for my evaluations to lead to projections that can be as accurate as this guy.

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    Default Re: Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

    I like the eyball test too, until I "believed" in Jordan Eberle and Joffrey Lupul in their "breakout years". Their regression bit me HARD, and was easily predictable by their shooting percentage. Obviously some players will defy the statistical average consistently (stamkos and sid, lookin at you), but for the most part, this is a GREAT indicator of their production. However, i DID also say that you should expect a bit more, considering they are growing and getting better. I wouldnt say there's a ZERO chance for them to hit 54 points and 59 points, because who know? they might get UNlucky (RNH put up 0.84 PPG in his rookie year, dropped to 0.60 because of a drop in shooting%, he was snakebitten, same with getzlaf in 2011-12). I wouldnt predict that any of those players will go above or below 10 points of my estimate though.
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    D: Letang Green Klingberg Rielly Faulk Bowey Phaneuf Campbell Schultz

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    Default Re: Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

    back to your original reply, yes i believe on-ice s% is more accurate than PDO for point production. star players do have a higher on-ice percentage than normal though and career years tend to have that number somewhere between 9-10%. Any higher is unsustainable.

    the regression monster vs growth in a young players/team is the real unknown as we dont know which will be greater. i suppose we dont really know whatll happen next year but based on this years information colorado was on the 'lucky' side. maybe their corsi/fenwick plays out like an elite team next year with the underlying numbers of a dominant possession team
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    Default Re: Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

    Colorado is going to be a fantasy goldmine in the near future. They just have too many good players to regress very much. Everyone predicts Mackinnon to be a stud, so there are going to be guys riding on his coattails. I predict Colorado will have 5 guys with 60+ points next year.
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    Default Re: Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

    Quote Originally Posted by Magicstew View Post
    Colorado is going to be a fantasy goldmine in the near future. They just have too many good players to regress very much. Everyone predicts Mackinnon to be a stud, so there are going to be guys riding on his coattails. I predict Colorado will have 5 guys with 60+ points next year.
    I hope so! I acquired ROR and Barrie this off season
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    F's-Marner, Rantanen, Crosby, Panarin, Guentzel, Caufield, Kaprizov, Lundell, Tomasino, Holtz, Pavelski, Zuccarello, Hagel, Dach

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    Default Re: Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

    Quote Originally Posted by kovalchuk17 View Post
    back to your original reply, yes i believe on-ice s% is more accurate than PDO for point production. star players do have a higher on-ice percentage than normal though and career years tend to have that number somewhere between 9-10%. Any higher is unsustainable.

    the regression monster vs growth in a young players/team is the real unknown as we dont know which will be greater. i suppose we dont really know whatll happen next year but based on this years information colorado was on the 'lucky' side. maybe their corsi/fenwick plays out like an elite team next year with the underlying numbers of a dominant possession team
    to all your points, i half-agree. star players DO have a higher on-ice shooting %, but my stats (and therefore the average) WAS from top-100 forwards. and I think your "shooting%" is from goals-for/SOG, not fenwick. it changes it dramatically. that would also mean your average of 9-10% for a career year is a bit too high. you're right, for SOG, the average shooting percentage is around 8.5-9, but for fenwick (for a top-100 forward) data, the highest was stamkos at 9%, then mackinnon at 8.7 and then Sid at 8.65. I can safely say that crosby likely won't regress and stamkos wont regress too much, but is mackinnon on their level? i would contend no (not unreasonably), at least not yet.

    i 100% agree (and thats not likely due to regess ) to your point about regression monster vs growth. I for one hope that colorado actually IS a shot-quality team that can sustain that (i have barrie in my league) but i just want to shed some light on the best way to use statistical models for regression.
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    F: Crosby Kane McDavid Hall Draisaitl MacKinnon Duchene Backstrom Hornqvist Sprong Perron

    D: Letang Green Klingberg Rielly Faulk Bowey Phaneuf Campbell Schultz

    G: Holtby

    Farm: RNH E.Lindholm Vrbata Fabbri Morrissey Pouliot Murray Vasilevskiy Fleury


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    Default Re: Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

    yeah, i was strictly using on-ice s% to get a better understanding of a player's luck. anything higher than 9% usually means a good year, anything above 10% is ridic. on-ice s%/on-ice fenwick is very interesting and makes sense.

    have a list handy of all fantasy relevant players for this statistic? haha
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    Default Re: Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

    Quote Originally Posted by kovalchuk17 View Post
    yeah, i was strictly using on-ice s% to get a better understanding of a player's luck. anything higher than 9% usually means a good year, anything above 10% is ridic. on-ice s%/on-ice fenwick is very interesting and makes sense.

    have a list handy of all fantasy relevant players for this statistic? haha

    haha i'll do you like, 15 better

    here's an excel file I made for my league. i adjusted it last night so that the "adjusted points" column changes their on-ice fenwick shooting percentage, not to the average, but to THEIR average over the last 3 years. for rookies and sophomores, used the average for that year. so while Sid was above almost everyone last year, he was actually BELOW his career average. I've also got scoring data for the last 5 years. ignore most of the other pages, they're just for my league. You can see the relevant Fenwick data in the columns all the way on the right (you can tell theyre new because they arent formatted for colour). this database is pretty versatile, so if you need to use it for your league, i can show you how.

    shoot me a pm for the link
    DobberHockey Injury Report Columnist

    Points only keeper league. 9F 6D 1G + 5 Bench & 9 Farm. $109M cap.
    Drop 5 at the end of the year from Main team only.
    10 Teams.

    F: Crosby Kane McDavid Hall Draisaitl MacKinnon Duchene Backstrom Hornqvist Sprong Perron

    D: Letang Green Klingberg Rielly Faulk Bowey Phaneuf Campbell Schultz

    G: Holtby

    Farm: RNH E.Lindholm Vrbata Fabbri Morrissey Pouliot Murray Vasilevskiy Fleury


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