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Thread: Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

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    Default Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

    Here's the production of the main scoring line forwards for the Avs.

    *PDO and Corsi numbers taken from Extraskater

    Duchene - 71 GP, 70 points, 100.1 PDO
    Landeskog - 81 GP, 65 points, 103.8 PDO
    O'Reilly - 80 GP, 64 points, 100.3 PDO
    Mackinnon - 82 GP, 63 points, 103.3 PDO
    Stastny - 71 GP, 60 points, 101.7 PDO

    Other
    Parenteau - 55 GP, 33 points (Im assuming hes going to be traded to be honest)

    Needless to say, an incredible year by the Avalanche. However, their team PDO (102) and S% (10.1) are both 2nd in the league but theyre also 25th in the league (47.4%) in corsi so theres a reasonable chance theyre in for a significant drop in production due to being slightly less lucky. This would mean lower totals for everyone and theres a big difference if a player puts up 55 points rather than 65.

    Now with the assumption that their team production will go down, who do you think will be most affected? It would require being a top 7-10 scoring team in the league to have 4 forwards (let alone 5) score 60+ points each.

    Duchene and O'Reilly have a neutral PDO so their production should be stable.
    Landeskog seems like a sell-high candidate as his shot rate and on-ice s% are both high.
    Mackinnon would also appear to be a sell-high candidate but given he's a rookie due for growth and his improved 2-way play in the second half he may be able to keep it up and possibly improve
    Stastny's PDO is slightly high and if treated like a 55-60 point center he should be fine (instead of his 69 pt pace this season).

    Thoughts?
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    Default Re: Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

    Duchene, O'Reilly, and MacKinnon are probably safe to hope for a repeat next year. Stastny is probably in that 55-60 range, but 69 would be hoping for too much.

    Lando is the one I worry about, I just don't know with him. He's not a "sniper" by any means, his goal totals are inflated by being a big volume shooter. This year he was able to get his SH% up to 11.7 after two years of 8.1 and 8.3.....coming out of junior his offensive upside was questioned, and that along with some "eh" SH% his first two years make me think he just might not have a great offensive game. Some puck luck between him and his linemates helped to offset his lower shot total this year.

    I don't know, just something about Lando makes me think he's a sell-high, or if it's a multi-cat league he's a definite hold but I wouldn't be expecting a ton of progression past where he's at right now.
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    Default Re: Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

    One of oreilly or stastny has to be gone this summer.

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    Default Re: Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

    Quote Originally Posted by Big Ev View Post
    One of oreilly or stastny has to be gone this summer.
    what makes you say that? i think pa parenteau is the one that leaves.

    Tanguay should be healthy and ready to go when hes back too. clogged team.
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    Default Re: Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

    Quote Originally Posted by kovalchuk17 View Post
    what makes you say that? i think pa parenteau is the one that leaves.

    Tanguay should be healthy and ready to go when hes back too. clogged team.
    mackinnon needs a big raise in a couple of years, they are already paying duchene and landeskog and varlamov a ton of cash...I don't think they can afford to keep both oreilly and stastny on top of that. They still need to improve their d in the long run

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    Default Re: Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

    The cap will prolly be going up, and because the main pieces are tied up for an extended time, and fairly cheap, they could hope to have enough cap to extended ROR and Statsny.
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    Default Re: Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

    Their forwards will still be very productive but a lot of things went well on that team at the same time. Almost too well, if you know what I mean.
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    Default Re: Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

    Quote Originally Posted by ericdaoust View Post
    Their forwards will still be very productive but a lot of things went well on that team at the same time. Almost too well, if you know what I mean.
    Yes! Most preseason guides had them at the bottom of the pack.

    At times, I had to check and make sure Roy and Sakic weren't gearing up because they were quite the surprise this year!
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    Default Re: Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

    There will be bumps but this team has the makings of an exciting, young, special team. And Landeskog has been underrated since day 1 in fantasy circles. I said it from the beginning, and I'll say it again, he will be a 35+ goal scorer and will hit (or break) 40 a couple of times. He will also flirt with 75-80 points. He plays well in all situations, has great leadership qualities, better hands than he receives credit for, and he has no problem getting in the dirty areas to score. A lot to like there.
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    Default Re: Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

    Quote Originally Posted by fungchen3 View Post
    There will be bumps but this team has the makings of an exciting, young, special team. And Landeskog has been underrated since day 1 in fantasy circles. I said it from the beginning, and I'll say it again, he will be a 35+ goal scorer and will hit (or break) 40 a couple of times. He will also flirt with 75-80 points. He plays well in all situations, has great leadership qualities, better hands than he receives credit for, and he has no problem getting in the dirty areas to score. A lot to like there.
    He should be an Oiler right now

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    Default Re: Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

    My forecasts for the Avs next season:

    74pts: Mackinnon
    72pts: Duchene
    70pts: Landeskog
    66pts: O'Reilly
    61pts: Parenteau

    I still believe the Avs want to see a C1/C2 of Duchene/Mackinnon in the mold of Forsberg/Sakic.
    The top Stanley Cup teams of past years have been very, very strong at center - and COL has to see that... especially Sakic.
    So - they have to try to transition MacK to center.

    For that reason, even with an incredible post-season (possibly), I don't see them re-signing Stastny.
    Besides... it's a young team now... and Stastny is a veteran center - and come their UFA dates... they often want to play on a more-veteran team.
    I'll forecast Stastny to sign to be C2 with the Chicago Blackhawks, who'll spend every last penny they can on their one big-signing once an increased cap is declared.

    A very interesting sleeper next year could be the 34-year old Alex Tanguay... still under contract with Colorado.
    With all their speed & passing, Tanguay becomes a nice little tape-to-tape player to gobble up some token points if he gets top six minutes.

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    Default Re: Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

    Quote Originally Posted by Big Ev View Post
    He should be an Oiler right now
    So should Ryan Murray. That team would be completely different (in a good way) with Landeskog and Murray instead of RNH and Yakupov.
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    Default Re: Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

    Quote Originally Posted by fungchen3 View Post
    So should Ryan Murray. That team would be completely different (in a good way) with Landeskog and Murray instead of RNH and Yakupov.
    Ya, they'd still have Sam Gagner as their #1 center.....ouch.
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    Default Re: Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

    good question!

    I think we saw a pretty amazing turnaround for COL this year, Patrick Roy has to be considered one of the best options for the Jack Adams trophy this year...I think he's just one of those guys that brings incredible passion to whatever he does and players (especially young players) love to play for a coach like that, the intensity is contagious and the players feed off it....that and he won 4 cups, he knows a thing or two about winning So I think that raw emotion may have inflated the numbers a bit for them so take that with a grain of salt. But that said, you've got all those youngsters with one more season under their belt, plus the offseason to continue improving...plus they're looking good in the playoffs. Ultimately I think all you'll see change from this year to next is the pts will shift around some...Stastny will very likely be gone, so expect the kids to soak up some of his pts and improve on their totals from this year. Mackinnon looks like one of those players who'll go up by 10 pts a season until he tops out, I see no reason why he and Duchene shouldn't be 70-75 pts apiece

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    Default Re: Colorado Forwards - fantasy goldmine or due for regression?

    Quote Originally Posted by kovalchuk17 View Post
    Duchene - 71 GP, 70 points, 100.1 PDO
    Landeskog - 81 GP, 65 points, 103.8 PDO
    O'Reilly - 80 GP, 64 points, 100.3 PDO
    Mackinnon - 82 GP, 63 points, 103.3 PDO
    Stastny - 71 GP, 60 points, 101.7 PDO

    Other
    Parenteau - 55 GP, 33 points (Im assuming hes going to be traded to be honest)

    Needless to say, an incredible year by the Avalanche. However, their team PDO (102) and S% (10.1) are both 2nd in the league but theyre also 25th in the league (47.4%) in corsi so theres a reasonable chance theyre in for a significant drop in production due to being slightly less lucky. This would mean lower totals for everyone and theres a big difference if a player puts up 55 points rather than 65.
    I dont think that's how PDO works. PDO is shooting%+save%, so if varlamov is putting up a really high save%, but the forwards only have a normal (or even lower) shooting%, then their production will stay the same or improve next year, even if their PDO drops because varly starts letting in goals. if you want to really check how their luck-adusted values are, i've cooked up something.

    Fenwick is all shots on goal and missed shots. a certain number of these will go in. if a player is on the ice and his team scores, theres a chance he'll get a point. so a good shooting percentage is (on-ice goals-for)/(on-ice fenwick-for). the average for a top-100 forward for this is around 7.2%. For defencemen its closer to 6.3%
    the colorado players shot at
    barrie 8.5903%
    duchene 8.2560%
    landeskog 8.4004%
    o'reilly 7.8217%
    stastny 8.1136%
    parenteau 6.7183%
    johnson 7.1595%
    mackinnon 8.7687%

    If they play all 82 games next year and put up the same number of fenwick shots and their shooting % drops to the average, you can expect the following point totals

    Barrie, 38
    Duchene, 73
    Landeskog, 59
    O'Reilly, 63
    Stastny, 65
    Parenteau, 56
    Johnson, 37
    Mackinnon, 54

    realistically you should expect a little more for the younger guys as they improve, but THOSE are your luck-adjusted stats.
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