The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

[metaldude26]

Guess we should be selling Backstrom too...

I personally wouldn't be selling either but it's worth mentioning Backstrom's ESP/game:

2013-14 = 0.427
0.625
0.595
0.545
0.78
0.561
2007-08 = 0.537

Only one elite year in there. Definitely suggests you should not overrate.

I'd suggest that last season was such a deviation for Ovechkin and Backstrom that there is some bounce-back coming on the even strength side but that the overarching theme here is decline for Ovechkin and business as usual for Backstrom. The real question is what happens to the power play if Oates is canned?

[ericdaoust]

I personally wouldn't be selling either but it's worth mentioning Backstrom's ESP/game:

2013-14 = 0.427
0.625
0.595
0.545
0.78
0.561
2007-08 = 0.537

Only one elite year in there. Definitely suggests you should not overrate.

Yeah Backstrom is not a 100 point guy although that's tough to hold against anyone considering only one guy cleared 87 points this year...

[metaldude26]

Yeah Backstrom is not a 100 point guy although that's tough to hold against anyone considering only one guy cleared 87 points this year...

For sure. Definitely feels like he's entered the Eric Staal zone. Simultaneously overrated for what he once did and underrated for never getting back to that level.

[doulos]

Good discussion. There are a lot of factors in play that would be neat to flesh out.

- Even strength time per game over the last several years
- Quality of linemates (I know at one point his linemates had something like the league's lowest combined shooting % in several years)
- Zone starts (this will probably damn Ovechkin even more as I'm pretty sure he played some awfully protected minutes this year - but I'd have to check)

What's crazy to me is that he takes up almost 15% of the team cap and for what he brings that's outrageous.

I really loved the old Ovechkin. The one who seemed to be able to score at will and had an infectious love for the game that seemed to draw people to him. This new Ovechkin where he gets paired up with crap linemates, his team is unbalanced (in part due to his own albatross contract), he seems pouty, and that drive just doesn't seem to be there any more - this Ovechkin is not so much fun.

As a fan I'd love to see him be back to his old self somehow, but I'm not sure what would make that happen outside of some sort of trade (yeah right!).

[27Blue]

I personally wouldn't be selling either but it's worth mentioning Backstrom's ESP/game:

2013-14 = 0.427
0.625
0.595
0.545
0.78
0.561
2007-08 = 0.537

Only one elite year in there. Definitely suggests you should not overrate.

I'd suggest that last season was such a deviation for Ovechkin and Backstrom that there is some bounce-back coming on the even strength side but that the overarching theme here is decline for Ovechkin and business as usual for Backstrom. The real question is what happens to the power play if Oates is canned?

I wouldn't be selling low either (relatively speaking)... though, the Caps have always been a PP driven machine. Even in the BB days they were piling up the points on the PP.

[Spec7ral]

Backstrom doesn't rely on speed to get his points, so the ESP argument differs from him to Ovie IMO. Bure vs Datsyuk. Awesome read as always peng. Insightful and we'll presented (as usual).

[metaldude26]

I wouldn't be selling low either (relatively speaking)... though, the Caps have always been a PP driven machine. Even in the BB days they were piling up the points on the PP.

There were a couple of lean years there (coinciding with Ovechkin's worst years, not surprisingly) where they were around league average on the PP. These were the Dale Hunter years, which were not pretty. We could probably attribute the lack of PP success all to Hunter and say that it doesn't much matter who the coach is in Washington, as long as it isn't him. And we could defend that theory by pointing to BB's miserable power play in Anaheim this year. I'd just as soon give Oates some credit for running a good power play and worry about slippage if he leaves.

[jcairns]

Ovechkin would score 40 points on the PP if I was running it...

Same here. "Ok guys, just pass it to Ovechkin at the top of the circle. If he's not free, Carlson on the point is your other option. None of you other 3 better try and score."

[metaldude26]

Ovechkin would score 40 points on the PP if I was running it...

So you subscribe to the anyone but Hunter theory then because 2010-11 Ovechkin and 2011-12 Ovechkin scored "just" 23 and 24 PPP respectively. What a bum!

[Pengwin7]

Ovechkin is still up around the 80pt mark because he produced 39 PPP this year.
But even that has potential to decrease. In past seasons, he's had PPP totals in the 20s.

He has become more of the focal point on the PP... I've never seen him bomb so many shots.
When considering how WAS tries to score, the % of time they simply go to OV for the bomb is increasing - THAT is the one bit of good news for Ovechkin owners..

In 2011-2012, behindthenet.ca lists OV to have 13ppg & 66sv in his 78games of PP time.
Note those numbers.

In 2013-2014, behindthenet.ca doesn't seem to have a full season registered for him... showing only 69games... not sure why the limited data (?!?).
But look at the numbers:
The year, he had 21g & 91sv from his PP shooting.
That's a HUGE increase in BOTH goals and shots in less games!!!

What's truly concerning, in my eyes... is that a new coach could come in.
And - one of the things he could say is that he wants to see the powerplay run differently.
(This would be dumb... Washington led the league in power-play goals & pp%... but stranger things have happened and new coaches... they do new things).

I don't see any coach implementing a system where Ovechkin's even-strength production increases by strategy.
OV's +/- is testament enough that Oates said "Go score... your linemates need to look after the defensive parts of your line."
I don't like Ovechkin... but he's not as bad a player as his +/- suggests.
For a veteran like Ovechkin... that kind of bad +/- suggests that your coach has let you off-the-hook from being defensively responsible.


Anyways - getting back to the main point.
If OV's ESP continues... he should only put up 40 ESP next year.
And if the WAS PP changes or normalizes to his 3 or 4 or 5-year average, he should get something closer to 30-35 PPP next year.

This makes Ovechkin a 70-75pt player.

And there ARE a lot of leagues where the GMs are just moderate-fantasy hockey fans.
So... if you own Ovechkin... and you can get a return of Jamie Benn AND Patrick Sharp for him... do you really hang onto Ovechkin?

I'm moving him in a heartbeat for that package.
And I'd bet most people on DobberHockey would too.

But now might be the last time to sell Ovechkin as an 80pt player.
This is my big point of this thread.

[metaldude26]

That also assumes he won't see some pull-back on his career-worst even strength numbers. I'm all for getting out a year too early than a year too late but I don't think this is the last chance to sell Ovechkin as an 80-point guy.

[kovalchuk17]

Hmm, all in all an interesting read from everyone.

in my league we're likely changing one of our categories to SOGs (removing SHP which I finally convinced to everyone was a stupid stat) and its a keeper with a 3-year restriction so Ovechkin has to be moved pretty soon. As I have 6 keepers in a keep 5, I had actually offered Taylor Hall and Nicklas Backstrom for Ovechkin at the trade deadline and more or less got laughed at, likely due to the name brand thing. I originally thought I was making a fair offer as I'm offering 2 top-10/15 players for a top 4 skater but now it would appear I"m overpaying (in an absolute sense, but still worth it in a marginal sense if Im losing a keeper for nothing).

One point that is valid and is unsually understated, the peak for most scoring forwards is 24-28 somewhere and goal scoring also tends not to age as well as assists. the 2003 draft class are all turning 29 this year, it might be more prudent for those with elite players to trade down to their younger counterparts

[Pengwin7]

That also assumes he won't see some pull-back on his career-worst even strength numbers. I'm all for getting out a year too early than a year too late but I don't think this is the last chance to sell Ovechkin as an 80-point guy.

Well.. just curious... not-attacking... but what reasons can you see that his even-strength numbers might improve???

He's still pretty much playing mostly with Backstrom... though a coach could tinker with that...
His SH% hasn't dipped, it's been 12+% in recent years... though it could dip if his linemates passes aren't Backstrom-ish...
His ice-time hasn't dipped, it's been 20+ min/game.... though it could dip if a new coach decides he's an ESP liability...

The last three years, one of the most eye-popping numbers (other than his ESP declining) is his decreased assists.
That's typically just from lack of supporting talent (which was Semin & ol' Green).

I suppose Washington could (could!) sign a free agent to play on that team.
But I don't even think most UFAs see Washington as an attractive team to join.
Last two years, what have they inked... Grabovski! Erat!?

And in the lock-out season, which I'm not focusing on too much... they at least had Mike Ribeiro.
And that Caps PP was VERY good in that season as well, with Ovechkin AND Ribeiro being tied for league lead in PPP.

Ribeiro... he went to Phoenix for 4 years/$22m.
Did the Caps not really offer him that?
or
Did Ribeiro just not want to re-sign with the Caps?
(Sometimes this is the case. I've long blogged/written about how players didn't enjoy playing with Kovalchuk, that puck-hog prima-donna... Ovechkin has a similar rub.)

So... if the Caps can't sign a dynamic player... and keep losing them...
How do they get Ovechkin some more assists... some more ESP?


Again - I'm not finger-pointing (I know I sound this way sometimes)... but seriously... how is Ovechkin's ESP production going to "pull-back"?
I just don't see any reasonable statistical corrections that might occur - but I am listening.

[Fast Tony DeNiro]

Awesome thread Peng....really makes you think. Even though Ovi's ESP's have been trending down, I can't help but think this year was just a little wacky. His linemates shot something like 4% when he was on the ice, that's gonna hurt your production. So yes I definitely think you're on to something here but I don't know if I'm buying another drop in scoring next year. I'm gonna call a 90 point season from Ovi next year, after that who knows? He'll be pushing 30 at that point. God that makes me feel old, it doesn't seem that long ago he was a 19 year old kid scoring a goal from his back haha.

[JagrBomb]

since there is so much ovy hate:

players who scored more points that ovy this year:

crosby
getzlaf
giroux
seguin
perry
hall
kessel
benn
pavelski


Which would you take straight up for ovy? forget about stuff like hits, blocks whatever. standard league (g,a,p, +/-, ppp, sog, whatever else i missed etc)