The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

[fungchen3]

Great read Pengwin.

You provide a solid case for your position, backed up by statistics. And I mostly agree with your findings - the only thing is, I consider Ovechkin a weird bird. I think his biggest problem is between his ears. Seems to me that Ovie was at his best when he was playing happy and full of gusto. He is the type of passionate player that thrives on raw emotion and positive emotion nets positive results. Once the "pressure" was on him, Boudreau and the rest of the Caps to win, he started to regress. The system changed, the style of team changed and Ovechkin was visibly having less fun. The same thing happened under Hunter and early on with Oates. I think this season, Ovechkin was so inspired and excited for the Olympics in Sochi that he played happy and was tearing up the league. Maybe I'm wrong, but he wasn't AS great post Olympics? Moving forward, Ovie is a complete wild card IMO. If the situation worsens in Washington, I could definitely see Ovie limited to 70-75 points per. But if a new GM/Coach/System or the likes of Kuznetsov, Orlov and Burakovsky add some excitement to the team, and Ovie is rejuvenated, I could see him hit the 85-95 numbers again. Yes, I think Ovechkin is THAT unpredictable.

[Pengwin7]

I'm gonna call a 90 point season from Ovi next year

Well... the big guy pegged Ovechkin for 90pts this year too.
I told him he was wacky... but he wasn't hearing it.

[havanablast21]

since there is so much ovy hate:

players who scored more points that ovy this year:

crosby
getzlaf
giroux
seguin
perry
hall
kessel
benn
pavelski


Which would you take straight up for ovy? forget about stuff like hits, blocks whatever. standard league (g,a,p, +/-, ppp, sog, whatever else i missed etc)

The ones in Bold I would take straight up for Ovie at this point in each of their Career's and team situations.

[fungchen3]

since there is so much ovy hate:

players who scored more points that ovy this year:

crosby
getzlaf
giroux
seguin
perry
hall
kessel
benn
pavelski


Which would you take straight up for ovy? forget about stuff like hits, blocks whatever. standard league (g,a,p, +/-, ppp, sog, whatever else i missed etc)

Me, personally...

Crosby, Giroux, Seguin, Benn and possibly Getzlaf.

Perry, like Ovie, fluctuates too much for my liking. Hall plays too reckless for me and the Oilers are a mess. Kessel's future is still unknown, although he's emerged into a great fantasy option and Pavelski is hitting 30 and just had his amazing blow-up year.

But, yes, I would definitely take those 4 others over Ovechkin in a points-only format (unless Goals were bonused).

[Axeman33]

I've been an Ovechkin hater on these boards for some time now, and he hasn't let me down in a long long time.

[havanablast21]

How does the inclusion of Kuznetsov at the start of next year look to:

a) Help Washington as a whole?
b) Perhaps serve to motivatee his countryman Ovie?
c) projections for Ovie and Kuznetsov next year and 3 years down?

Is Kuznetsov Ovie's alternate winger? Will they eventually land on the same line?

[Pengwin7]

since there is so much ovy hate:

players who scored more points that ovy this year:

crosby
getzlaf
giroux
seguin
perry
hall
kessel
benn
pavelski


Which would you take straight up for ovy? forget about stuff like hits, blocks whatever. standard league (g,a,p, +/-, ppp, sog, whatever else i missed etc)

1. I don't think "standard leagues" include points. Most do not.

2. It's not "hate". It's an analysis of a player that is tabbed frequently as "ELITE".
In most fantasy hockey pools, if you ask the casual fantasy hockey GM: "Who is elite?"... I'll bet you that 4/5 casual fantasy hockey GMs list Ovechkin!!!

3. Take that term ELITE. Now pause.
There's no point making the list you made.
Here is the ELITE list: Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin... arguably Stamkos.

4. Now... stop. You own Ovechkin.
If you can get Benn & Sharp... or Hall & Pavelski... for Ovechkin...
Do you make the trade?
Standard partial keeper? (So, let's say 12-team. Keep 8. 3/3/3/5/2G)

What's your answer?
Are you really keeping Ovechkin?


It's not about hate.
The thread is "biggest reason to sell".

Stock market standard motto:
Buy Low, Sell High.
Once the sell high period has closed... you aren't the top manager in the league.
Top fantasy hockey GMs are consistently flipping declining 80pt talent for rising 75pt talent.

That's the point of the thread.

[suvojitde]

Great read Pengwin.

You provide a solid case for your position, backed up by statistics. And I mostly agree with your findings - the only thing is, I consider Ovechkin a weird bird. I think his biggest problem is between his ears. Seems to me that Ovie was at his best when he was playing happy and full of gusto. He is the type of passionate player that thrives on raw emotion and positive emotion nets positive results. Once the "pressure" was on him, Boudreau and the rest of the Caps to win, he started to regress. The system changed, the style of team changed and Ovechkin was visibly having less fun. The same thing happened under Hunter and early on with Oates. I think this season, Ovechkin was so inspired and excited for the Olympics in Sochi that he played happy and was tearing up the league. Maybe I'm wrong, but he wasn't AS great post Olympics? Moving forward, Ovie is a complete wild card IMO. If the situation worsens in Washington, I could definitely see Ovie limited to 70-75 points per. But if a new GM/Coach/System or the likes of Kuznetsov, Orlov and Burakovsky add some excitement to the team, and Ovie is rejuvenated, I could see him hit the 85-95 numbers again. Yes, I think Ovechkin is THAT unpredictable.

Much as I too have been touting in this thread, that he is not in the ELITE points getting category anymore (even if you add SOGs and Hits OR are a Goal Heavy League), I do agree somewhat with this. If there is 1 player that is so moody and passion focused that those characteristics and suitable surroundings (system, linemates, motivation) can elevate him to another season of awesomeness (read 90 points, 100 is not happening), its probably Ovi. That is why he is so mercurial.

By the same token, another season of 80 points with bad +/-, the window to sell high will certainly be gone, which is why I think, it makes sense for me (in my pools) to let it to be someone else's issue, not mine.

Bottom line, great debate!

[Fast Tony DeNiro]

Well... the big guy pegged Ovechkin for 90pts this year too.
I told him he was wacky... but he wasn't hearing it.

I just don't see Ovi having as horrible a year at even strength next season. Like I mentioned in my OP, his linemates shot like 4% this season. That has to be a huge reason for the decline, he still scored 27 ES goals, but only had 13 assists. If you double that number, which isn't asking a lot, that puts him at 92 points this year.

Overall, I agree with your assesment. Ovechkin is on the downslide and his days of being a true ELITE are over. We won't see another Art Ross in his future, or even 100 points. But 90? Ya I think he can still do that once or twice more.

[Axeman33]

For me it's all about the hate.

[metaldude26]

Well.. just curious... not-attacking... but what reasons can you see that his even-strength numbers might improve???

He's still pretty much playing mostly with Backstrom... though a coach could tinker with that...
His SH% hasn't dipped, it's been 12+% in recent years... though it could dip if his linemates passes aren't Backstrom-ish...
His ice-time hasn't dipped, it's been 20+ min/game.... though it could dip if a new coach decides he's an ESP liability...

The last three years, one of the most eye-popping numbers (other than his ESP declining) is his decreased assists.
That's typically just from lack of supporting talent (which was Semin & ol' Green).

I suppose Washington could (could!) sign a free agent to play on that team.
But I don't even think most UFAs see Washington as an attractive team to join.
Last two years, what have they inked... Grabovski! Erat!?

And in the lock-out season, which I'm not focusing on too much... they at least had Mike Ribeiro.
And that Caps PP was VERY good in that season as well, with Ovechkin AND Ribeiro being tied for league lead in PPP.

Ribeiro... he went to Phoenix for 4 years/$22m.
Did the Caps not really offer him that?
or
Did Ribeiro just not want to re-sign with the Caps?
(Sometimes this is the case. I've long blogged/written about how players didn't enjoy playing with Kovalchuk, that puck-hog prima-donna... Ovechkin has a similar rub.)

So... if the Caps can't sign a dynamic player... and keep losing them...
How do they get Ovechkin some more assists... some more ESP?


Again - I'm not finger-pointing (I know I sound this way sometimes)... but seriously... how is Ovechkin's ESP production going to "pull-back"?
I just don't see any reasonable statistical corrections that might occur - but I am listening.

Dumb luck basically. A guy sets a career low rate in scoring he's either on his way down, had horrible luck, or both. I'd lean towards both but with a HEAVY dose of the latter. As mentioned earlier, his linemates shot 4%. How on earth does an elite shooter like him come out with just a 5.84% on-ice shooting percentage (at even strength)? He's down there with guys like Scott Gomez!

Some of that stuff is controllable. I think that to some degree players really can control the scoring rate of players on the ice with them but an outlier like that? Naaaw, something's up. Ovechkin's on-ice shooting percentage the previous two years was 10.36% and 8.62%, both much closer to league average than this season. You see that stat regress and he's getting a few more even strength points. Hell, it might even over-correct if Kuznetsov proves to be amazing or Carlson takes a big leap or pure dumb luck swings the complete opposite way. Or maybe they fire the GM, a guy who reportedly alienates free agents. That could be another source of help.

I see the trend and I agree with the trend. The days of Ovechkin going off for 100+ look like they are over barring the addition of a superstar into his life. But just because the trend is downward doesn't mean that it's going to be a perfect slope. There can be peaks and valleys just like there are for PP scoring.

[metaldude26]

This is definitely going to turn into a front-page article. I just hate to have to be an Ovechkin apologist. It's way more fun to make fun of him joining the exclusive 50-goals/minus-30 club.

[Pengwin7]

Dumb luck basically. A guy sets a career low rate in scoring he's either on his way down, had horrible luck, or both. I'd lean towards both but with a HEAVY dose of the latter. As mentioned earlier, his linemates shot 4%. How on earth does an elite shooter like him come out with just a 5.84% on-ice shooting percentage (at even strength)? He's down there with guys like Scott Gomez!

Some of that stuff is controllable. I think that to some degree players really can control the scoring rate of players on the ice with them but an outlier like that? Naaaw, something's up. Ovechkin's on-ice shooting percentage the previous two years was 10.36% and 8.62%, both much closer to league average than this season. You see that stat regress and he's getting a few more even strength points. Hell, it might even over-correct if Kuznetsov proves to be amazing or Carlson takes a big leap or pure dumb luck swings the complete opposite way. Or maybe they fire the GM, a guy who reportedly alienates free agents. That could be another source of help.

I see the trend and I agree with the trend. The days of Ovechkin going off for 100+ look like they are over barring the addition of a superstar into his life. But just because the trend is downward doesn't mean that it's going to be a perfect slope. There can be peaks and valleys just like there are for PP scoring.

Good post... and I sent you some rep.
If his overall shooting percentage is about average (12%) and you researched that his ES SH% is low (6%)... then I suppose his PP SH% may have been higher than normal too? (20+%??? This is just a guess.)

Another note here is that there are two minds of thought:
1. Points-Only Pool Ovechkin.
2. Multi-Cat Pool Ovechkin.

Good discussion though... and some very good comments by many users, for both cases towards Ovechkin.

[metaldude26]

Good post... and I sent you some rep.
If his overall shooting percentage is about average (12%) and you researched that his ES SH% is low (6%)... then I suppose his PP SH% may have been higher than normal too? (20+%??? This is just a guess.)

Another note here is that there are two minds of thought:
1. Points-Only Pool Ovechkin.
2. Multi-Cat Pool Ovechkin.

Good discussion though... and some very good comments by many users, for both cases towards Ovechkin.

Oh yeah, the difference between points-only and multi-cat is huge. I think in multi-cat you ride with Ovechkin even if he withers to a 30-point guy as long as he can sustain even two-thirds of his shot/hit rates.

[ericdaoust]

Oh yeah, the difference between points-only and multi-cat is huge. I think in multi-cat you ride with Ovechkin even if he withers to a 30-point guy as long as he can sustain even two-thirds of his shot/hit rates.

To add a bit of context, in our UHL league Ovy ranked #2 this year despite low assists and +/-. Back in 2012 when he had his 65-point season he dropped to #31 overall.