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Thread: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

  1. #46
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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    And when I started the thread... I was focused on "points-only".
    My mistake for not clarifying.
    Ovechkin is still pumping out SOG & PPP in huge quantity.

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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    And when I started the thread... I was focused on "points-only".
    My mistake for not clarifying.
    Ovechkin is still pumping out SOG & PPP in huge quantity.
    No need to clarify.
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  3. #48
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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    Points only league keeper league someone offered me Ovechkin for (my) Perry. Should I do this?
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  4. #49
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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    [QUOTE=curtisn16;1272427]Points only league keeper league someone offered me Ovechkin for (my) Perry. Should I do this?[/QUOTE

    Points only, I would not if I were you. I would retain Perry.
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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    [QUOTE=suvojitde;1272587]
    Quote Originally Posted by curtisn16 View Post
    Points only league keeper league someone offered me Ovechkin for (my) Perry. Should I do this?[/QUOTE

    Points only, I would not if I were you. I would retain Perry.
    I would keep Perry. I got cold feet with OV after I read this and shopped him around. I ended up doing this:

    To me: Little, E. Johnson, RNH, Byfuglien and a 1st (2015) will be a lottery
    To Him: OV, Thornton, Kronwall and Pouliot.

    Mix bag of responses from my league. Most think I hosed the other manager in pawning off the Russian. What is even more ironic is that we made the trade on Fri night. We know what happened to OV on Saturday.
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  6. #51
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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    The owner in my league was trying to move him. He likes Mack, drouin, hall, Subban, stammer from me. Is there any deal there I could entertain that i can improve my team with? He also has Schneieder and F. Andersen he'd trade too (I could use a goalie just not sure how to rate them) thanks for any insight.
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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    Quote Originally Posted by Thejem View Post
    The owner in my league was trying to move him. He likes Mack, drouin, hall, Subban, stammer from me. Is there any deal there I could entertain that i can improve my team with? He also has Schneieder and F. Andersen he'd trade too (I could use a goalie just not sure how to rate them) thanks for any insight.
    You need a goalie not AO.

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    He's still coming off of a 50 goal season. And I don't see Perry as any better off then he is.
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  8. #53
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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    I've actually been offered ovi and 3rd overall pick for perry and my 2015 1st rounder. Im thinking of doing it but just afraid of ovi bolting for KHL.
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  9. #54
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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    I wonder what happens to AO numbers when trotz gets hired to be the Washington head coach..........
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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    For me it boils down to a quality v quantity when it comes to Ovechkin

    If my team has enough talent to qualify as a cup candidate than I am in the market for quality slots on my roster then Ovi is a top ranked player

    If I am building a team and can flesh out the roster with promise and upside then Ovi is not really the best choice and I would trade him

    To a certain degree I think this is on the coach, so I would wait to see who are coming to Washington to steer the ship
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  11. #56
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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    Ovi's ES goal production has been pretty consistent the past few years:

    2013-14: 0.35
    2012-13: 0.33
    2011-12: 0.32
    2010-11: 0.32

    So wouldn't expect a decline there, as it actually went up over the past two years. So assuming he puts up about 0.33 ES goals per game over his average 79 games a year, that's 26 ES points right there.

    His ES assist production over the past 6 year time span, and his corresponding 5v5 on-ice shooting%:

    2013-14: 0.15 @ 5.8%
    2012-13: 0.27 @ 10.36%
    2011-12: 0.22 @ 8.62%
    2010-11: 0.46 @ 8.05%
    2009-10: 0.50 @ 11.76%
    2008-09: 0.34 @ 9.09%

    Hmm, notice a trend there, and a matching outlier in both? The 0.15 ES assists per game and the 6.3% 5v5 shooting% don't really jive with his career numbers.

    We already know Ovi will get around 26 ES points out of goals. So what seems more likely?

    1) That he posts another career-low ESA/GP season, or
    2) His 5v5 on-ice shooting % comes closer to his 9.03% which corresponds to a return to his ~0.27 ESA/GP he has averaged over the past few years?

    If you're on board with #2, like I am, that means his ES points are going to be closer to 50 than 40.

    I wrote a very, very long piece that I may have to post in it's entirety at some point, but essentially if you ignore the "noise" and average Ovi's ES/PP goal/assist production since his "decline" (ie: not including his 100+ point years) you're looking at this:

    43 goals (26 ES), 40 assists (25 ES), 83 points (51 ES), 350 shots on goal

    So unless his goal-scoring drops off a cliff and/or he has some of the worst luck in the NHL, two seasons straight, I think calling Ovi a 70-75 point player is selling him just a bit low. Even looking at 2011-12 where his per game number were pretty abysmal, that's 0.32 goals per game and 0.22 assists per game at ES, or 0.54 ES points per game. That's 43 ES points right there, and that's with him regressing in ES goal production and with him experience well-below career average ESA/GP and 5v5 on-ice shooting %.

  12. #57
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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    ^^^What. the. hell.
    Dyz is back!!!

    It's been since March 12th... can I ban this fool?!
    j/k.

    Welcome b-izz-ack!!!

  13. #58
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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    Ovy will be back. A new coach of his liking (and approval) will be brought in and he will be given free reign once again. I wouldn't say buy low but I'd hang on to him before selling as an 75-80 point guy. I'd also take him over Perry in a points only league, but that's just me. Let's see what kind of overhaul the caps do once all is said and done, when the new sheriff is in town.

  14. #59
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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    ^^^What. the. hell.
    Dyz is back!!!

    It's been since March 12th... can I ban this fool?!
    j/k.

    Welcome b-izz-ack!!!
    Not so sure I'm back but I recently acquired Ovechkin in a league, and needless to say I did some due diligence on his underlying numbers before I did. Happened to do a search here and stumbled upon this thread and thought I'd toss some of what I'd found in this thread.

    His 100+ points are probably gone, and at 29, that shouldn't exactly be surprising. But I see no reason to expect less than point per game which still makes him a top ~5 own in points only and he's still probably a top 3 guy in multicat, though cap leagues make that equation a little more complicated. Either way - whether you want to use the elite tag or not - I'm still taking him near the top of the draft in any format.

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