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Thread: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

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    Exclamation The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    The one statistic I look first to when evaluating a player as a keeper: Even-Strength Points.
    If a player's ESP is good... I know he can tack on extra PPP because he'll get that time if he is offensively gifted.

    But when an ESP total starts dipping that's bad news.

    Here's a trend of numbers:

    73 (+36)... 61 (+24)... 42 (+23)... 39 (+39).
    The first number is the key number.
    That's Ovechkin's even-strength points in each of his last four full NHL seasons (lockout not included).
    39 even-strength points this year.
    To put that in context... that was good for 60th in the NHL... tied with Michael Frolik. Yes, Michael Frolik.
    And on his own team were Joel Ward (37) and Jason Chimera (36).
    Jason... Chimera.

    A dynamic focal PPP weapon like Ovechkin is going to have that PPP total (brackets) vary, year-in, year-out.
    Age doesn't factor a lot into PPP.
    For anybody that gets out there and plays hockey... the PPP is mostly hockey-smarts... not endurance... you find a place on the ice, do some gentle cycling... and those with sharp accuracy, benefit most.
    So Ovechkin's PPP is going to range between 20 (low) and 40 (high) for the next several years... regardless of his age. Count on that fluctuation, PPP.

    What you might also, unfortunately, count on... is even-strength production... which is still heading down the toilet.
    And we all thought his 65pt season in 2011-2012 was bad... wouldn't happen again, right?
    Well - the "even-strength part" was EVEN WORSE this year!!! Oh no.
    Just 39 ESP.

    And it's not surprising.
    Historically, from the years I've spent watching hockey, it seems to be something I notice.
    Scorers... snipers... they go down-hill in the ESP department as they age.
    It becomes a lot harder to get up & down the ice at the speed needed to be a weapon.
    They are a bit like biathalon athletes. Go-go-go-go-go, stop/snipe. It's tough.

    And Ovechkin... even-strength Ovechkin... is aging.
    PPP Ovechkin, will still be around.

    Two-Faced.

    So... look at the math... if Ovechkin doesn't put up 39 PPP again next year... where does he finish?

    Food. for. thought.

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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    Nice post, Pengwin. Precisely the reason I won't trade a ransom for him unless the owner is treating him as a 75-80 pt player (which they never are). And this all makes sense too, given the loss of Semin to help bury some ES goals, and the fact ovechkin is now 29. Not old, but for a player of his style they typically don't last forever.

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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    And here I thought it was because he is lazy.
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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    Quote Originally Posted by gainerama View Post
    And here I thought it was because he is lazy.
    No no no, he's only lazy when the opposing team has puck possession.


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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    Good post, Peng. I agree - if he does not improve his ESP or a way to redefine his game (again), then I sense his upside going forward in the mid to late 70s, early 80s max. I sense that even though he is still an elite sniper (and shot taker) his days of 90s and 100s is gone. Aside from him aging, I also sense another couple of factors in him losing his mojo are -
    1) The constant system switch (playing more responsibly, defensively under Hunter; changing his wing under Oates)
    2) Ds figuring him out 5 on 5
    3) Washington losing depth over the years - with Ovi and Backs the only 2 players (Kuz - too early) that scare opposing teams.

    Which is why I don't think he features in the super elite 4 / 5 conversation anymore. Multi-cat stud, yes, super-elite no more, unfortunately.

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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    hmmm ok, interesting. i was gonna inquiring about him but what im willing to pay has definitely lowered
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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    Quote Originally Posted by gainerama View Post
    And here I thought it was because he is lazy.
    Ha! REP.
    Because "lazy" or whatever word somebody picks for "slowing down"... is essentially correct, in shorter terms!
    (though I feel, these days, like I need statistical backing to make many of my points to my "non-believers"... who are out there in groves! )

    I'm 37 now... but around the point when I found "the girl" and started settling down... a lot of guys get... complacent (?!).
    That was between 27-30, met the girl, had the job... got married. Then kids.
    I used to be one of the fastest skaters in my men's leagues - and played upper division.
    Now I'm in the middling divisions... as a middling speed skater.
    Oh... no! Slow Pengwin!

    Ovechkin was always a player that added an extra 10-20pts through hustle and 10-20pts through team linemate chemistry (Semin, Knuble, ol' Mike Green).
    He had success.
    He got the contract.
    He got himself a girl.

    When you start getting birthday cards like this:
    BUWpcXDCcAEGnn4.jpg
    ...it's all over...

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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    I'm curious about how much of this falls squarely on the shoulders of AO? Arguably, even strength points are attributable to a team game. I wonder if the team, teammates, or the system, is not conducive to him get ESP.
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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    Quote Originally Posted by HockeyProphet View Post
    I'm curious about how much of this falls squarely on the shoulders of AO? Arguably, even strength points are attributable to a team game. I wonder if the team, teammates, or the system, is not conducive to him get ESP.
    A decent amount falls on the teammates. He used to have guys like Semin finishing on his line. It's mainly his even-strength assists that are down. Unfortunately, given his age and the team, I don't see "immediate" help coming in to boost those numbers back up. I'll eat my shirt if he cracks 90 points again.

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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    Even Strength points per game for Ovechkin every year of his career:

    2013-14 = 0.5
    0.604
    0.538
    0.772
    1.014
    0.797
    0.915
    0.671
    2005-06 = 0.622
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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    Great post...Rep!

    A little worried being a AO owner seeing these stats, might shop him around

    Thanks!
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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    Quote Originally Posted by Yonald View Post
    Great post...Rep!

    A little worried being a AO owner seeing these stats, might shop him around

    Thanks!
    ....and if you are planning on shopping him, while being realistic of what he can fetch especially if your fellow GMs are also Dobberites, do not undersell!!! He is still elite in leagues that has SOGs and Hits as categories. He is still the only 75 - 80 pt getter that is capable of more than 375 shots, 200 hits!
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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    Guess we should be selling Backstrom too...

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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    Wow, those stats definitely are an eye opener. Luckily, I have him a points league where his large amount of hits and still managing to score 50+ total goals regularly keeps him top in the league for overall points!
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    Default Re: The biggest reason to sell Alexander Ovechkin

    Quote Originally Posted by suvojitde View Post
    ....and if you are planning on shopping him, while being realistic of what he can fetch especially if your fellow GMs are also Dobberites, do not undersell!!! He is still elite in leagues that has SOGs and Hits as categories. He is still the only 75 - 80 pt getter that is capable of more than 375 shots, 200 hits!
    Yep. Treat him as a 75-85 pt guy, but one that will absolutely destroy shots and hits. It's for that reason that I know the GM in my league wouldn't trade him straight up for Stamkos.

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