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Thread: My bold "buy low" candidate for next year

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    Default My bold "buy low" candidate for next year

    Seguin.

    I know, it doesn't seem like a buy-low, and it isn't really. But I think you can still get him for cheaper than what he is worth, and this is the final window. Here's why:

    1) He's only had 1 season with elite numbers now. We all know there are plenty more to come, but that 1 season means he doesn't have the name value of other players of similar production. I'd happily try to flip guys like Kessel and Perry for Seguin.
    2) 294 shots. That's a lot, and I expect he reaches 330+ next year. When he was getting settled with Benn early in the season, his shot totals were low. For perspective, he averaged 3.07 shots per game for the first 40 games. Over the next 40 games, his shots per game jumped to 4.27, a pace of 350 shots. Over the season, his time on ice didn't really vary.
    3) Nichushkin. As he develops you can expect better things from Seguin.

    In sum, Seguin doesn't hold the name value of other top players, his per game shot totals seem to indicate he is a 330+ shot taker from here on out, and he has 90+ point potential. I imagine in some leagues a consistent ppg player like Kessel could net him, and even better would be someone like Perry.

    Just a random thought.

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    Default Re: My bold "buy low" candidate for next year

    Good logic but I think it depends on the league. Seguin and Benn were pure magic and if he continues to blow up in the playoffs, his value will stay extremely high IMO. I don't know how many poolies will be sleeping on Seguin. That said, I too would deal Kessel for him if I could, even though Kessel is more proven.
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    Default Re: My bold "buy low" candidate for next year

    Next season, Seguin would be projected at 80-85 by every major publication. He does have 90+ upside, but unless you are suggesting he will meet that next season, he is far from a buy low.
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    Default Re: My bold "buy low" candidate for next year

    Quote Originally Posted by fungchen3 View Post
    Good logic but I think it depends on the league. Seguin and Benn were pure magic and if he continues to blow up in the playoffs, his value will stay extremely high IMO. I don't know how many poolies will be sleeping on Seguin. That said, I too would deal Kessel for him if I could, even though Kessel is more proven.
    Very true. Most leagues I have been in tend to value proven over potential, and it's for that very reason I think many leagues would prefer the proven 82 pt producer.

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    Default Re: My bold "buy low" candidate for next year

    If you can find a league where someone will "sell low" on Seguin, point me in that direction.

    Even when he was buried on the 3rd line in Boston, and you should have been able to buy low on him, I was unable to, and I am in 4 keepers.
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    Default Re: My bold "buy low" candidate for next year

    Quote Originally Posted by Seeds of Grapes View Post
    Next season, Seguin would be projected at 80-85 by every major publication. He does have 90+ upside, but unless you are suggesting he will meet that next season, he is far from a buy low.
    By "buy low" I meant he could still be acquired for what he isn't worth. It was more so getting at the point that I think a reliable 80 pt producer with name value could still land him in some leagues this offseason, and is worth pursuing.

    Also, I would project him at 87-91 next season, barring injury. But that's just my take.

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    Default Re: My bold "buy low" candidate for next year

    I'm thinking more along the lines of Seguin being over-valued just like all of the other young talents out there. That's how it is in fantasy hockey. I doubt Seguin is being sold low in any league. If anything, most of his owners see him as an 80-point star for the next decade.


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    Default Re: My bold "buy low" candidate for next year

    Quote Originally Posted by ericdaoust View Post
    I'm thinking more along the lines of Seguin being over-valued just like all of the other young talents out there. That's how it is in fantasy hockey. I doubt Seguin is being sold low in any league. If anything, most of his owners see him as an 80-point star for the next decade.
    I agree with this.

    If aything, Seguin would be more of a sell-high than a buy low. Everyone and their mother has him pegged as a future 90 point - upside guy. If I owned Seguin I'd be knocking on the doors of guys who own the likes of Tavares, Rask, Stamkos, Malkin, Giroux to see if I could swap Seguin and all his "untapped potential" and a little something else for one of those guys.
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    Default Re: My bold "buy low" candidate for next year

    Quote Originally Posted by SergeP View Post
    I agree with this.

    If aything, Seguin would be more of a sell-high than a buy low. Everyone and their mother has him pegged as a future 90 point - upside guy. If I owned Seguin I'd be knocking on the doors of guys who own the likes of Tavares, Rask, Stamkos, Malkin, Giroux to see if I could swap Seguin and all his "untapped potential" and a little something else for one of those guys.
    Fair enough. But there are many that still overemphasize his days with boston.

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    Default Re: My bold "buy low" candidate for next year

    Seguin's age makes him very valuable (rightly or wrongly) in most keeper leagues.

    People think that young players still haven't reached their fullest potential and I think many would rather have Seguin over an "older" player like Getzlaf or Perry.

    Honestly, I can't really blame them either. After Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos, and Tavares are gone, I'd seriously consider Seguin part of the next category of forwards along with players like Kane, Backstrom, Giroux, etc.

    If you really want to see how young players are overvalued, try to acquire Mackinnon right now. I bet many wouldn't give up Mackinnon for Kessel or Perry, let alone Seguin.
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    Default Re: My bold "buy low" candidate for next year

    Quote Originally Posted by jcairns View Post
    Fair enough. But there are many that still overemphasize his days with boston.
    Even if he regressed to say 70 points next year it doesn't hurt his trade value. He would still be in the top 20 of the league with a ton of upside for future years.


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    Default Re: My bold "buy low" candidate for next year

    Quote Originally Posted by SeaDawg View Post

    If you really want to see how young players are overvalued, try to acquire Mackinnon right now. I bet many wouldn't give up Mackinnon for Kessel or Perry, let alone Seguin.
    Yeah but Mackinnon has 150+ point upside.

    At least, that's the impression I have gotten on the forums.

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    Default Re: My bold "buy low" candidate for next year

    Quote Originally Posted by jcairns View Post
    Yeah but Mackinnon has 150+ point upside.

    At least, that's the impression I have gotten on the forums.
    Exactly!

    That's what I'm talking about. Young players get too much hype, even someone like Seguin whose been in the league for a few years now. People still think the potential is there to explode, whereas "old" players have already maxed out.
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    Default Re: My bold "buy low" candidate for next year

    I think we should expect a player to score at LEAST fifteen (15) more points next year... than he did this year... to consider him "Buy Low".
    I like Tyler Seguin... but he ain't scoring 99pts next year.

    More of a buy-low candidate is somebody like Logan Couture who put up 54pts in 65games - because websites may not adjust for those games missed and peg him low down the draft board.
    Zach Parise has a similar 56pts in 67games.
    Semin & E.Kane had about 40+pts in 60+games... good buy-low candidates.

    Other good "buy-low" candidates are players that had abnormally low SH% or low PPP... things that tend to naturally correct.

    As low PPP goes:
    Gabe Landeskog had just 10 PPP... you know he could elevate that number... and thus his 65pts.
    Patrice Bergeron had only 11 PPP... he finished on fire... and could spike further above his 62pts.
    And of course Eric Staal who had just 12 PPP... which hurts his 61pt total... is a very good candidate to get back to 70pts.

    As shooting percentage goes:
    Radim Vrbata shot just 7.6% with 20G on 263 SOG for 51pts. If he shoots his avg 9%-10%, there's another 5-6 goals.
    Evander Kane shot just7.6% with 19G on 250 SOG for 41pts. Same thing.
    Daniel Sedin shot just 7.1% with 16G on 224 SOG for 47pts. He's a 12% career shooter... and will easily (IMO) bounce back to 60+pts.

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    Default Re: My bold "buy low" candidate for next year

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    I like Tyler Seguin... but he ain't scoring 99pts next year.

    More of a buy-low candidate is somebody like Logan Couture who put up 54pts in 65games - because websites may not adjust for those games missed and peg him low down the draft board.
    Semin & E.Kane had about 40+pts in 60+games... good buy-low candidates.
    What would you expect of Seguin & Kane next year over a full 82 games?

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