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Thread: Goalie GP this year

  1. #1
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    Default Goalie GP this year

    One thing I found interesting is goalie GP this year. We often talk about 70+ game workhorse types but this year Kari Lehtonen led the league with 65 appearances and tied for the lead with 64 starts. Only eight goalies reached the 60-game mark. Compare that to seven goalies starting 41+ games last year (on pace for 70) and three goalies hitting 70 back in 2011-12 (nine goalies started more than 65 games that year).

    We can say it's due to the Olympic year but I'm thinking it has more to do with the strong play of so many backups this year. Plus the trade activity along with changing roles surely contributed as well.

    The reason I am posting this is fantasy implications. If it's going to be a continuing trend then this will have an effect on everyone going forward. Just wondering if anyone has thoughts on this. I'm not even sure if there was an article written about this or if it's already on the forum somewhere.


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    Default Re: Goalie GP this year

    I think it's:

    a) the Olympics taking about 2 starts away from each workhorse
    b) better backups
    c) Injuries or weird slumps - Rinne, Quick and Lundqvist would have all had around 70 starts were it not for that. Maybe Mike Smith as well.

    Great topic, thanks for bringing it up
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    Default Re: Goalie GP this year

    I've tracked goalie GP in the past.

    Here's something to try:
    Go back and count all the 70+ GP goalies from the last 6-7 years.
    Then, go see how many of them made it out of the first round of the playoffs.
    It's very few, like 1/10.

    I, personally, don't think it has anything to do with better back-ups.
    If the starter is better, that's your best option to win a game.
    I believe GMs have identified the same statistics that I've noted (and yes, I'm thumping my chest here) and decided to ensure their starters get more rest.

    The 70 GP season is gone... unless a team is really fighting for a playoff spot... and then you'll see that goalie (say... Dallas!) a lot during the year.

    Bobrovsky will lead the league in GP next year, as CBJ in the East will be the definition of a fringe-playoff-team.
    Book it.

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    Default Re: Goalie GP this year

    To me, better backups is the key. We are seeing more and more technically sound talent come along at this position, which makes the drop off from starter that much less. Tired starter vs. fired up backup? Seems like you're getting a better effort from the backup these days.
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    Default Re: Goalie GP this year

    I agree that it's a smarter approach but the difference can be seen league-wide and it all happened in just one year. It's more than just GM/coach strategy.


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    Default Re: Goalie GP this year

    So... all of a sudden... in 2013-2014... back-up goalies... just... got better?
    I completely disagree. (even though I understand that the statistics... for this year... will support that claim.)

    There are going to be years of statistical anomalies where back-up goalie statistics appear to be better.
    There are going to also be years where Maple Leaf shooting percentages are higher.
    And... there are going to be years when Patric Hornqvist has an excellent January scoring rate.
    That doesn't mean these things will continue going forward.

    Starter games are down because of a smarter ratio of rest for the starter vs. playing time for back-up, and that ideal number is 60/22.
    This IS a coach/GM decision.

    Back-ups are not magically closer in skill to starters than they have been in the past.

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    Default Re: Goalie GP this year

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    So... all of a sudden... in 2013-2014... back-up goalies... just... got better?
    I completely disagree. (even though I understand that the statistics... for this year... will support that claim.)

    There are going to be years of statistical anomalies where back-up goalie statistics appear to be better.
    There are going to also be years where Maple Leaf shooting percentages are higher.
    And... there are going to be years when Patric Hornqvist has an excellent January scoring rate.
    That doesn't mean these things will continue going forward.

    Starter games are down because of a smarter ratio of rest for the starter vs. playing time for back-up, and that ideal number is 60/22.

    Back-ups are not magically closer in skill to starters than they have been in the past.
    If you believe that is a trend going forward, you are going to fail in a lot of fantasy hockey pools.
    Why didn't it happen last year or the year before? Do you have a leaked copy of the GM meetings where they all agreed to change direction for this year?


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    Default Re: Goalie GP this year

    Quote Originally Posted by ericdaoust View Post
    Why didn't it happen last year or the year before? Do you have a leaked copy of the GM meetings where they all agreed to change direction for this year?
    It's been trending down for a while.

    In 2009-2010: 6 goalies topped 70 games, with another four over 65 games.
    In 2010-2011: 3 goalies topped 70 games, with another four over 65 games.
    In 2011-2012: 2 goalies topped 70 games, with another seven over 65 games.
    6... 3... 2...
    This is three seasons of information... enough to suggest a "trend" of decreasing in full seasons prior to the lockout.
    Then you've got a lock-out shortened 2012-2013 season... where goalies only played a maximum of 44 regular season games.

    Now... let's talk about "lock-outs".
    It's like a period where you are not getting as much exercise.
    A jogger could run 5K every day.
    Then... perhaps he sit on the couch for 6 months...
    It'll take you a while to get back to running 5K every day.

    Let's zoom back to the 2004-2005 lockout.
    Season after that: 2005-2006... where only three workhorse goalies played over 70 games and only another two played over 65 games.
    And then the season after that... 2006-2007, as goalies increasing their stamina again... now you've got four goalies playing over 70 games and another 6 over 65 games.
    And then the season after that... 2007-2008 where there were six goalies playing over 70 games.
    3... 4... 6...
    Another trend.
    Low after the lockout.
    Then increasing.


    Two sources of goalie trending evidence:
    1. The rate of starting goalie games per year has been decreasing in full years based on statistical evidence that workhorse goalies (& their teams) aren't exceling in Stanley Cup playoffs.
    2. Following a lock-out, goalie long-term stamina is down and they play less games in a full season.

    Combine those two statistical pieces of evidence/trending...
    Result: Lowest starting goalie GP in recent history.

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    Default Re: Goalie GP this year

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    It's been trending down for a while.

    In 2009-2010: 6 goalies topped 70 games, with another four over 65 games.
    In 2010-2011: 3 goalies topped 70 games, with another four over 65 games.
    In 2011-2012: 2 goalies topped 70 games, with another seven over 65 games.
    6... 3... 2...
    This is three seasons of information... enough to suggest a "trend" of decreasing in full seasons prior to the lockout.
    Then you've got a lock-out shortened 2012-2013 season... where goalies only played a maximum of 44 regular season games.

    Now... let's talk about "lock-outs".
    It's like a period where you are not getting as much exercise.
    A jogger could run 5K every day.
    Then... perhaps he sit on the couch for 6 months...
    It'll take you a while to get back to running 5K every day.

    Let's zoom back to the 2004-2005 lockout.
    Season after that: 2005-2006... where only three workhorse goalies played over 70 games and only another two played over 65 games.
    And then the season after that... 2006-2007, as goalies increasing their stamina again... now you've got four goalies playing over 70 games and another 6 over 65 games.
    And then the season after that... 2007-2008 where there were six goalies playing over 70 games.
    3... 4... 6...
    Another trend.
    Low after the lockout.
    Then increasing.


    Two sources of goalie trending evidence:
    1. The rate of starting goalie games per year has been decreasing in full years based on statistical evidence that workhorse goalies (& their teams) aren't exceling in Stanley Cup playoffs.
    2. Following a lock-out, goalie long-term stamina is down and they play less games in a full season.

    Combine those two statistical pieces of evidence/trending...
    Result: Lowest starting goalie GP in recent history.

    Before editing your post you wrote:

    Your flaw is that you are only noticing it now because you've rigidly pegged the "workhorse" label to a magical 70-game mark.
    ...while using the rigidly-pegged 70-game mark to try to prove your point.

    Also, didn't you say the 70-game season is gone? But later claim that it's going to go up in the years after the lockout? So which one is it? lol

    You're just trying to win a debate. I'm looking for answers. Yours is fine and is part of the puzzle.


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  10. #10
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    Default Re: Goalie GP this year

    1. I removed the sentence because I realized the 70GP mark is important to note (and because it wasn't exactly "forum-friendly").
    That's something people who do research do.
    They start with a hypothesis.

    Yup - it's wrong.
    It's not in my finalized formal post.

    My posts are long - and I try to back-them with a lot of link/statistics.
    Unfortunately, I can only view about 12 lines on my "posting screen"... so I often "Save", then "Read", then "Edit" again.

    2. I'm not trying to "win a debate".
    I'm actually digging into this because I've researched it before and noticed the trends.
    If the forums had full "search" functioning - I could easily find past posts to support this.
    Myself and a few others discussed back-up games prior to the lock-out shortened season.
    And I 100% guarantee that in my past post count there is one or two that tracks the playoff success of goalie's playing 70+ GP.
    [I even give Dobber permission to search all my posts for "goalie 70 GP" and "playoff"... it's there.]

    3. The 70-game season IS gone. (at least... we won't see multiple goalies hitting that mark consistently.)
    And... the GP will rise after the lock-out season.
    Those can both be true statements/postulations.
    The upper range was 60-65 this year... and I can fully see that rising back to 65-70 for teams fighting for playoffs.

    After the 04/05 lockout, there was just three guys over 70 GP. It started at 3... it rose (with workload stamina) to 6... then it decreased to 2 (by playoff failures, IMO).
    After the 12/13 lockout, there were zero guys over 65 GP. I would expect similar trending numbers... than there will be a rise... but that it will not reach 70s... because it isn't starting as high as 04/05 and because statistics don't back team success where a goalie plays 70+ regular season games.

    I'm saying it will rise... because of stamina-strengthening... but you won't see 70 GP commonly.


    You are being stubborn about your "debate"... because you don't like it when I prove you wrong with backed statistics.
    You need to get over that.
    If you want to have an opinion fine - that's what discussion are for.
    But don't get all sour when somebody can post some backed evidence to explain why GP was the lowest in recent history.

    My argument is well-backed... with statistics.

    I'm not trying to "win this debate".
    But I do know when I can form an argument that is more soundly backed than somebody else's.

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