Olympic year playoff impact

[newfcollins]

For those doing playoff pools, keep this in mind: In an Olympic year, there’s always one conference that has lots of upsets.

2010: The top three seeds in the Eastern conference all lose in the first round. Seventh seed Philadelphia made it to the finals, beating out eighth seed Montreal in the third round.

2006: The top four seeds in the west all lose in the first round. Eighth seed Edmonton makes it to the finals.

2002: The top two Eastern teams lose in the first round. Carolina makes it to the finals, and while they were the third seed, that was simply because they won the Southeast. Out of 16 playoff teams, Carolina had the second lowest points.

1998: The top three teams in the east all lose. Fourth seeded Washington wins the East finals over sixth seeded Buffalo.

I have no idea if this is just coincidence, or how it compares to non-Olympic years, but I thought the info was worth sharing.

[metaldude26]

So what you're saying is, all hell is about to break loose! I like it!

[suvojitde]

Interesting info, newf.

Personally, I think it is the injuries that will play a huge role in these playoffs, maybe they have something to do with the Olympics, maybe they don't but the amount of teams that are entering the 2nd season nervous due to players missing is mind boggling.

My other thought is that at least a couple of series out West are almost too close to call (SJ/LAK, CHI/STL) so not sure if they can be called upsets in the true sense, even if the higher seed lost.

[Pengwin7]

Good post, newf.
Though I'll say this... there is ALWAYS an obscure trend to be found if you look hard enough.

Some people will show up and say that a certain player is going to have a huge January... because he's done it the last three years.
Or... that a guy will have a big year... because he's had a good year every-other-year for the last six seasons.

Well... when you have a big pool of data to collect from, you can always find one of these.
They are interesting.

But as a betting man (& mathematician), I'd still put all my money on the upper seeds if you give me an even-money offer in any match-up.

BOS over DET, in 5. BOS over TB, in 4. BOS over PIT, in 7. BOS over STL, in 6.
TB over MON, in 7.

PIT over CBJ, in 5. PIT over NYR, in 6.
NYR over PHI, in 7.

COL over MIN, in 5.
STL over CHI, in 7. STL over COL, in 6. STL over SJ, in 7.

ANA over PHX, in 5.
SJ over LA, in 6. SJ over ANA, in 7.

[suvojitde]

Pengwin, not often that one can comment on a typo on your posts - PHX did not make it, you obviously meant Dallas.

Also, with all the injuries and Miller looking shaky, you still think that STL beats CHI?

[Pengwin7]

LOL... but Phoenix won last night!
D'oh!

[Dutch]

That is very interesting indeed.

The big difference this year though is the bracket style rather than the matchup style.

So I don't see this being an issue this year myself.

[suvojitde]

Yes, the absence of reseeding allows for better projection / forecast, somewhat.

[newfcollins]

Want to bring this back up now that we're almost in the third round.

In the East, the top three seeds, including the two potential Cup favourites are out. Fourth round features a fourth vs fifth seed if you sorted out the conference by points.

In the West, the second, third and fourth seeds, including the top potential Cup favourite, are out. If the Ducks lose this series, we're looking at a fifth vs sixth seed. If the Ducks win, it's a first vs fifth.

I understand divisional matchups instead of conference matchups now, but still a fun trend. It's why I predicted a Habs-Hawks final.

Well have to bring this up again in 2018 if the NHL sends players to the Olympics.

[The Comish]

I wonder if Chara was exhausted in part because of the Olympics, a combination of age and playing like 45 minutes a game for Slovakia.