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Thread: Defenseman scoring is the most random thing...

  1. #1
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    Default Defenseman scoring is the most random thing...

    Just doing a bit of season-end review and looking at the D-men scoring charts this year.

    It's so random. (Points-only pools in particular.)

    Are you really telling me that I need to go hard after guys like Sekera, Wisniewski, Seabrook, Niskanen...

    Last year Beachemin was amazing. This year a bunch of scrubs are lighting it up.

    Whats more random, defenseman scoring or goalie scoring?
    10 Team Limited Keeper (Keep 8) Points Only
    SALARY CAP (Player Salaries) League
    20 Player Teams = 12 Fwd 6 D 2 G

    My team: ???

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    Default Re: Defenseman scoring is the most random thing...

    Totally agree that D-man scoring is super random. That's why in my 1-year league I leave D-man until last. I grab some quality looking guys and usually end up with maximum 1 of the 4 guys I drafted.

    This year along I picked up along the way: Fowler, Wideman, Sekera, Goligoski (dropped + added repeatedly) Zidlicky. The only guy I have had since day 1 of the draft is Gudas and I keep him for his consistent contributions in PIMs and HITs (which are far more consistent categories than points for D-men).

    The only 2 guys top-10 in points both this year and last are Subban and Kronwall, adding in Karlsson as a stud with a freak injury shows how inconsistent D-man scoring can be.
    12 team H-2-H 1 year league, daily roster changes, 3 goalie start minimum/week
    2xC, 2xRW, 2xLW, 4xD, 3xUtil, 2xG, 5 Bench
    G, A, P, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, Hits, W, SV%, GAA, SVs
    C: C. Keller, C. Mittelstadt, B. Nelson, R. Strome,
    LW: K. Connor, B. Tkachuk, J. Gaudreau, J. Marchessault, E. Rodrigues, A. Lafreniere
    RW: K. Fiala, J. Bratt, T. Jeannot V. Arvidsson
    D: R. Josi, J. Trouba, E. Gustafsson,
    G: L. Thompson, F. Gustavsson, V. Vanecek
    NO IR

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    Default Re: Defenseman scoring is the most random thing...

    I've long commented that you can find a 40pt defenseman that rises up every year.
    Injuries & PP opportunities usually give these guys the chance to hit that magical 40+pt mark.

    This year, Sekera, Niskanen, Zidlicky... totally helpful.
    In past years, I recall Nick Leddy, Jake Muzzin, Beauchemin, Hamhuis, Bieksa, Del Zotto... always somebody emerging from waivers.

    And I've also long said that there are typically only 3-4 guys that maintain a top 10 spot (Karlsson, Subban, Keith, Weber), with another 18-20 that will float in and out of that top 10.
    So, so, so many defensemen rotate in and out of that 40-50pt range every year.

    But... I think that change might stop.
    Pietrangelo should consistently be a top 10 scoring D-man.
    OEL appears to be there.
    And Hedman should continue.

    (Buff is a wildcard if he still qualifies).

    But still... that's 6 now that seem destined to be repeat top 10 guys.
    Perhaps Yandle, and Kronwall too.

    The ever-changing D-man scoring might actually start getting consistent!
    But that said... where you'll get 50pts for Mr.Constitent-Dman... you can still pluck a 40pt D-man out of the ashes each year.
    10pt sacrifice... yeah, that's why I draft them so late.

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    Default Re: Defenseman scoring is the most random thing...

    McDonagh and Josi are two young d-men that will be joining the ranks of consistent over-40 producers.
    I can't promise I'll try but I'll try to try.

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    Default Re: Defenseman scoring is the most random thing...

    I've long argued that in leagues that allow for many moves you should always keep one slot open to rotate the hot defenseman through for a week or two at a time. A 40-point defenseman only scores in half the games at maximum so that's half the games where they are borderline useless. Best to ride the hot streaks as you can.

    That said, Wisniewski and Sekera are both pretty legit. It's possible that Sekera gets bumped if the Hurricanes can find a better option but I doubt it. So he's someone to take seriously. He always had talent, was just buried in Buffalo. I always hoped the Oilers would snag him.

    Wisniewski is even more legit. When he cracks 50 points it'll be the second time he has done so in his career. He's a power play specialist to be sure (over half his points came via PP) but he's a pretty darn good one. His only issue is health. He's a certified Band-Aid Boy so it's tough to rely on him. When healthy he's got potential to crank out season's just like this one.
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    Default Re: Defenseman scoring is the most random thing...

    I would add that this thread also underlines why having and holding onto a top defenseman is key in a keeper league...and that if you can get two or three of them, you have an advantage.

    But if you have five D spots, you may as well roll the dice on finding someone riding a hot streak..or having a random breakout campaign.

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    Default Re: Defenseman scoring is the most random thing...

    40 points is an arbitrary number. Every year you get 20-30 d-men who hit this milestone.

    The same could be said for a 65ish point forward and I am sure you would have a similar number of names in and out of the group each year. Probably a little more variance with d-men but it isn't as random as it is being made out to be.


    A quick look shows that of the top 25 scorers at the forward position last year (65+ points) - only 11 of those same players are in the top 25 in scoring this year.
    The top 25 scorers at the defence position last year (38+ points) - only 14 of those same players are in the top 25 in scoring this year.

    There are surprises, good and bad, at every position every year. Defence is no different. Kyle Okposo scored 4 goals last year... this year he would have scored 30. Surprises happen at all positions.

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    Default Re: Defenseman scoring is the most random thing...

    Quote Originally Posted by VincentVega View Post
    McDonagh and Josi are two young d-men that will be joining the ranks of consistent over-40 producers.
    I agree with this
    H2H 12 team 6 player Keeper League
    Goals/Assists/Points/PlusMinus/PPP/Pims/Hits/SOG
    Wins/GAA/SV%

    C: Seguin, Stamkos, Couturier, Toews, Dzingel
    LW: Panarin, Rakell,Schmaltz, Bertuzzi, Haula
    RW: Tarasenko, Marner,Kucherov
    D: Hamilton, Klingberg, Schultz, Faulk, Ghost, Gustafson.
    G:Murray

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    Default Re: Defenseman scoring is the most random thing...

    Yep, predicting DMen with decent accuracy is a tough task. Outside of a handful of studs there are too many surprises and disappointments any given season. To me, this is why it is extremely important to land 1 or 2 of the D sure-fires in any format. I've seen D be the difference-maker in many a league.
    8-GM / WK-H2H
    Forwards: G=2, A=1, PP/SH= +1, GWG= +2, Shootout G=1, HT= +1
    D-Men/Captain: G=3/A=2
    Goalies: W=3, OTL=1, SO= +2, SV= .10


    Start = 13F, 6D, 2G / Keep 44 (3G)
    Captain: Matthews
    (F): MacKinnon, Pasta, Marner, Rantanen, Malkin, Barkov, M.Tkachuk, W.Nylander, Pettersson, Gaudreau, Laine, Keller, Miller, B.Tkachuk, Stutzle, DeBrincat, L.Raymond, K.Johnson, Cozens, Quinn, Guenther, Kulich, Cooley
    (D): Makar, Dahlin, Q.Hughes, Ekblad, Rielly, Werenski, Letang, Jones, Chychrun,
    Seider, Edvinsson, Jiricek, Korchinski, Mintyukov, Ceulemans, Hutson
    (G): Shesterkin, Demko, Vejmelka

  10. #10
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    Default Re: Defenseman scoring is the most random thing...

    These are problems for those that do not own Erik Karlsson... There's no randomness there, 70+ points a year, BOOM!
    10 team, head-to-head, multi-cat, keep-12 keeper league. CATS: G,A,+/-,PPP,PIM,SOG,HITS BS,SHP, W,SV,SV%,GAA,SO Daily rosters of 6F, 4D, 2 Flex, 2G

    F: Crosby, Hall, Pacioretty, Hartnell, Neal, Nugent-Hopkins, Callahan, Dubinsky, Hossa, Huberdeau, Abdelkader, Bjugstad (IR)
    D: Karlsson, Hedman, Muzzin, Savard, Streit (IR)
    G: Lundqvist, Quick, Condon

  11. #11
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    Default Re: Defenseman scoring is the most random thing...

    These are problems for those that do not own Erik Karlsson... There's no randomness there, 70+ points a year like clockwork, BOOM!

    What's that? That's what your best forward puts up? Sorry to hear that......
    10 team, head-to-head, multi-cat, keep-12 keeper league. CATS: G,A,+/-,PPP,PIM,SOG,HITS BS,SHP, W,SV,SV%,GAA,SO Daily rosters of 6F, 4D, 2 Flex, 2G

    F: Crosby, Hall, Pacioretty, Hartnell, Neal, Nugent-Hopkins, Callahan, Dubinsky, Hossa, Huberdeau, Abdelkader, Bjugstad (IR)
    D: Karlsson, Hedman, Muzzin, Savard, Streit (IR)
    G: Lundqvist, Quick, Condon

  12. #12
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    Default Re: Defenseman scoring is the most random thing...

    Quote Originally Posted by Shiva Blaster View Post
    These are problems for those that do not own Erik Karlsson... There's no randomness there, 70+ points a year, BOOM!
    Just like last year, right?

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    Default Re: Defenseman scoring is the most random thing...

    I agree 100%, and Beauchemin is a great example. I've invested in Ekman-larsson, and plan to keep him for years, but otherwise i'm never gonna use a high or even mid draft pick on a defenceman. Why waste a draft pick on the next Beauchemin when you could pick up the next Eric Johnson for free off waivers in november or december?
    10 team pts-only keeper league - keep 10 plus 10 from past/present farm. No bench: entire active roster counts. Goalies: 2 pts/win + 3/shutout. 82 adds / year. NHL playoffs count for separate prize.

    F: J Eichel, M Tkachuk, J Guentzel, E Pettersson, P Laine, R Thomas, C Kreider, M Boldy, J Kyrou, M Backlund, F Vatrano, N Niederreiter, R Rakell, M Marchment, M Domi
    D: A Fox, S Theodore, R Andersson, B Montour, S Durzi, D Keith
    G: F Andersen, S Knight, J Swayman
    IR: J Hughes, M Stone, M Grzelcyk, S Perunovich
    Farm: L Raymond, O Wahlstrom, S Skinner, C Addison, Y Chinakhov, J Perreault

  14. #14
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    Default Re: Defenseman scoring is the most random thing...

    Quote Originally Posted by 27Blue View Post
    Just like last year, right?
    All players are prone to injuries (freak accidents) which cannot be predicted. All we can do is project what players are capable of in a full or near-full season. In a healthy season, there is zero chance Karlsson puts up less than 60 points for the foreseeable future.
    10 team, head-to-head, multi-cat, keep-12 keeper league. CATS: G,A,+/-,PPP,PIM,SOG,HITS BS,SHP, W,SV,SV%,GAA,SO Daily rosters of 6F, 4D, 2 Flex, 2G

    F: Crosby, Hall, Pacioretty, Hartnell, Neal, Nugent-Hopkins, Callahan, Dubinsky, Hossa, Huberdeau, Abdelkader, Bjugstad (IR)
    D: Karlsson, Hedman, Muzzin, Savard, Streit (IR)
    G: Lundqvist, Quick, Condon

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    Default Re: Defenseman scoring is the most random thing...

    However, owning Karlsson you have to either draft a player with fantastic +/- to counter Erik’s, or completely throw that category out the window. Just like me when I decided to own Backstrom and Karlsson (and at one point, Skinner).

    My sure fire D list in no order:
    -Karlsson
    -Subban
    -Keith
    -Weber

    Outside of those guys, I’d be cautious of keeping any D on a limited keeper league (6 or less). OEL, Pietrangelo, Yandle, and Hedman would be my on the cusp of continuous production
    12 Team, H2H, Keep 6 (in Bold)
    G, A, Pts, PPP, FW, SOG, Hits, Blocks
    W, Saves, S%, GAA, Game Started
    2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 1Util, 2G, 5BN, 2IR, 1IR+, 1NA

    C: Horvat, Trocheck
    LW: J. Robertson, Byfield (C), Guenther
    RW: Pavelski (C), Giroux (C), Svechnikov (LW)
    D: Fox, Makar, Bouchard, Morrissey, Gudas
    Util: Meier (LW, RW)
    G: Oettinger, Georgiev, Samsonov, Woll


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