Keeper Help (REP)

[Instant Karma]

Well, it's time for my semi-annual "Who Should I Keep?" thread.

Team and league in signature. Keep 6 (5 F/D) + (1 G/D)

Getz, Vanek, and Flower are in. And this is the year that I say "Thanks for the memories" to Gaborik.

So, it's looking like three of Drouin, Barkov, Tarasenko, Yandle, McDonagh, and possibly Turris. However, thinking outside the box is welcome.

Thanks in advance, and as always, I'm good for rep.

-Karma

[Dobber]

Yandle and Drouin for sure. Then I guess you can't keep McDonagh. So Barkov

[gainerama]

Yup, I'd go with Drouin, Barkov and Yandle as well. Swing for the fences with those young guys.

[jcairns]

Yep, I agree with the others. Also, Yandle must be a beast in your format counting PPP and SOG, but not counting hits. Home run!

[Instant Karma]

Yandle and Drouin for sure. Then I guess you can't keep McDonagh. So Barkov

Thanks, I'm kinda intrigued by McDonagh's potential, too.

FYI, I can keep as many D as I want, it's with G that I'm limited to one.

The intention of the rule is that for the goalie spot, if you don't have a goalie worth keeping, you can keep a D instead but not another forward.

[Pengwin7]

Drouin, Yandle, yes.
I'm torn on Barkov vs. McDonagh.
Without PIM, McDonagh's overall offense + his solid +/- is nice to have.
Barkov's +/- will negate some of his offense.

I'd probably go with McDonagh.
We get excited about young prospects, but +/- is still a category to consider... and likely players on teams like FLA will suffer with it for a long, long time.

[suvojitde]

I am with Pengwin here. McD is too solid in his own zone to have a bad +- (not to mention Barkov plays for an awful team at present and for the foreseeable future) - I would go with Yandle, Drouin and McD.

My other question mark is related to Flower. With 12 teams and 1G each, can you not get a better goalie during the draft - lets assume Lundy, Rask, Price, Miller, Rinne, Varly, Crawford, Niemi, Bishop, Quick, Lehtonen and Flower are gone; you can still get a couple from Bobrovsky, Bernier, Mike Smith, Halak, Hiller, Anderson, Howard, Holtby, Schneider in the draft.

I will explain why - my fear is if he does not show up in these playoffs (has another one of his now famous playoff meltdowns - although I hope he doesn't) then are the Pens going to keep him, and if they don't, what would his value be.

[Instant Karma]

I am with Pengwin here. McD is too solid in his own zone to have a bad +- (not to mention Barkov plays for an awful team at present and for the foreseeable future) - I would go with Yandle, Drouin and McD.

My other question mark is related to Flower. With 12 teams and 1G each, can you not get a better goalie during the draft - lets assume Lundy, Rask, Price, Miller, Rinne, Varly, Crawford, Niemi, Bishop, Quick, Lehtonen and Flower are gone; you can still get a couple from Bobrovsky, Bernier, Mike Smith, Halak, Hiller, Anderson, Howard, Holtby, Schneider in the draft.

I will explain why - my fear is if he does not show up in these playoffs (has another one of his now famous playoff meltdowns - although I hope he doesn't) then are the Pens going to keep him, and if they don't, what would his value be.

Well, I'm going to finish third, so I'm going to be picking tenth in next-year's draft. As you point out, a few of the guys you mentioned won't be kept (eg. Bishop, Miller, Varly, Lehtonen, Smith) because they're on teams where another G will likely be kept. But at tenth I likely won't have a shot at them, except for possibly Lehtonen or Smith, which is okay for a number 2. Obviously the opening round tends to always be a goalie rush.

I kind of have to hold my nose and hold on to Flower, barring some off-season trade. But anyone I try to trade him to will bring up the same objection you have.

[suvojitde]

Well, I'm going to finish third, so I'm going to be picking tenth in next-year's draft. As you point out, a few of the guys you mentioned won't be kept (eg. Bishop, Miller, Varly, Lehtonen, Smith) because they're on teams where another G will likely be kept. But at tenth I likely won't have a shot at them, except for possibly Lehtonen or Smith, which is okay for a number 2. Obviously the opening round tends to always be a goalie rush.

I kind of have to hold my nose and hold on to Flower, barring some off-season trade. But anyone I try to trade him to will bring up the same objection you have.

Ok, then maybe try trading Flower + Duchene for a better Goalie that you wont have second thoughts keeping, especially if one of the other teams has more than 1 elite goalie and has to let them go anyways.

[Instant Karma]

I don't have Duchene, btw.

Usually, if someone has a goalie that they can't keep, you can typically trade them a draft pick (eg. trade them your xth round pick for their yth round pick, with x and y fluctuating based upon how good the goalie is and how high in the order your pick is). But, since my pick is tenth, I'm a bit handicapped in that area.

Because we can only keep a single G, Flower doesn't have a lot of (offseason) trade value, unfortunately.

[als_revenge]

Drouin, Yandle, yes.
I'm torn on Barkov vs. McDonagh.
Without PIM, McDonagh's overall offense + his solid +/- is nice to have.
Barkov's +/- will negate some of his offense.

I'd probably go with McDonagh.
We get excited about young prospects, but +/- is still a category to consider... and likely players on teams like FLA will suffer with it for a long, long time.

Lou might help cut down the +/- bleeding a little bit (he's a significant upgrade over Markstrom or anything else Florida had). And if Florida needs to spend some $ to reach the floor or something, they might get a boost there too.

If there is one category that I hate, and one category I hate incorporating into planning, it's that dreaded +/-.

[Pengwin7]

If there is one category that I hate, and one category I hate incorporating into planning, it's that dreaded +/-.

Yup, it can be hard to put a value on it.
In Yahoo!, I actually did peg a value to it though (and verified with cross-referenced computations).

+1 = 1 point of value.
Other category stats can be weighted off this base.
(Spreadsheet from 2012-2013 shortened season attached, I can't wait to make one when this season ends to see if weighting still match Yahoo! "Rank")

Anyways, in that shortened season, most 100-ish players (which is where McD or Barkov may fall) are around a point value of 100 in a 48-game season... or 180 in a 82-game season.
So a +20 guy like McDonagh is 40pts ahead of a -20 guy like Barkov.

Defensemen contribute much less offensive statistical value than forwards... so getting D-men that are PLUS guys is a solid help to team planning in pools that count +/-.
This makes McDonagh a very solid keeper, because NYR is a "cap spending team" that should have an overall PLUS in goal differential... especially if Lundqvist doesn't shit the bed in the first half of NEXT season.

[Bass56]

Drouin, Barkov and Yandle for me.

[2014olympicgold]

MA Fleury is actually a solid Fantasy goalie. Not elite, but he’s solid. His post season play deflates his value, but that doesn’t technically matter to us. However, when real life playoffs come around and let’s say he stinks the bed again, I can see penguins buying him out. He’s got one year left and a FA in 2015. So the penguins may just buy him out, and suffer the cap hit for a season. He only has fantasy value because of the penguins team in front of him though. I wouldn’t consider him a solid goalie unless he stays on the team. So, in 3 months some off-season moves may answer your question on keeping “Flower”.
I’d be aiming at keeping no goalies, draft Lethonen, and then another starting goalie in the 2^nd round. Then do a hailmary on a third goalie in a late round. Reimer, Elliot, Khudobin/Ward style of goalie.

[gerbernomics]

turris, tarasenko and yandle if you want more right away

drouin, barkov, yandle if you want to keep a long-term view