2014...Which top guys will we wait longest for?

[Ed.]

Any opinions on this? Who are the Larssons, Van Riemsdyks, Wheelers, Turrises and Okposos, who I am better off passing on now, and picking up cheap in 2019 when their original owners have given up on them? Are there particular traits you look for when figuring out who is likely to make an impact early on vs. who is likely to get good the year after everyone quits on them?

With really small guys, generally we expect an 8 year progression towards the final boom or bust, but then you get guys who supposedly have NHL size, like Wheeler, Van Riemsdyk and Kassian, who then take years and years to learn how to use it. You get guys who have played with men in Europe, and thus are ready to be awesome from day one like Victor Hedman, who started to look like he might be awesome somewhere around day 1200, and Larsson who is still hoping he might one day be an NHL regular. If a guy is drafted by Detroit, fine, that skews the development curve for sure. If they'd drafted Hall he'd probably be getting cups of coffee once or twice a month right about now. But then a guy goes to a team where he has no one on the depth chart in front of him and is invisible until he's trade to Ottawa and becomes First Line Centre Kyle Freakin' Turris overnight, so it's not as easy as looking at where a player goes either.

I don't know, just wondering if anyone has any thoughts on the matter.

[Chunkys_Choice]

You mean out of the players going in the 2014 draft? I wouldn't be able to make a prediction until I know who goes to which team.

[Zorro]

Once these guys are selected by NHL teams, there will be tons of threads and predictions for most of the players drafted.. You just have to wait until June!!

[Ed.]

Fair enough. I just think there has to be more to it than where a guy ends up. If Turris had gone somewhere else, would he have developed faster? Okposo? Hedman? Or would they have taken the time that they did, because that's the time they needed to develop into good NHLers?

[Chunkys_Choice]

I think it's a combination of the two, but the team part is a huge factor for sure

[Magicstew]

It all depends where they go. Then you can project who can get pts in NHL or not. I see what you are getting at by trying to see if there are a couple of guys you can look at picking up a couple years after the draft because the other owner soured on them because of slow development.

[dodospice]

Alex Tuch, Kasperi Kapanen are two guys who I think could fit the description you're talking about but I would have to see where everyone is drafted before I could say for sure.

[mounD]

Yeah. Maybe guys like Nylander, Ehlers, Goldobin strike me as players who will need a few years to develop into quality NHLers, for a variety of reasons (size, strength, style of play, etc.). All of these guys, however, should be DYNAMITE fantasy options in several years' time.

[Spec7ral]

I'd say mound has a spot on threesome for a longer wait time. In terms of immediate impact, it would be virtually impossible to pick someone outside of the top 5, especially in this draft, who would just step in and have an immediate impact, without knowing which organisation they are joining. And even then, they should not all be shoe ins for joining the show, as it can have a negative impact on their development for years by burning that first year right away (see turdis, kyle). Realistically you can't project much of anything until they are at camp and preseason since injuries, Lack or glut of confidence, chemistry and need won't manifest themselves until that point.

[ericdaoust]

The problem with the question in this thread is that the story to answer the question hasn't been told yet. I know what you're trying to accomplish though. To me it's not so much about the wait time as it is guys struggling once they do hit the NHL. For example, Ryan Johansen's stock was down prior to this year and he turned 21 last summer. So what you could look for is players being rushed in or guys that are brought in early in lesser roles.

[Fast Tony DeNiro]

Nick Ritchie is a name that comes to mind. Big power forward, they tend to take a awhile.

[mounD]

Nick Ritchie is a name that comes to mind. Big power forward, they tend to take a awhile.

This is another good one. Just look at his older brother, Brett. Similar type of player, both had big offensive breakouts in their draft years, and Brett has yet to make an NHL impact. Big power forwards always take a long time to develop; I'm not as interested in Ritchie as a lot of others for this very reason. It's likely going to be several years before he has fantasy value.

[Ed.]

I know I am thinking about this way too early, but I really appreciate your responses, thanks. Ritchie is one I was thinking of as well, because the power forwards do tend to take a while, or fall flat altogether, like Glennie and Beach.

[Spec7ral]

Organisations that would fit the mold for longer wait times, other than Detroit, would be Chicago or TB IMO. Just because they have a pretty large glut of talent ATM, so they would be rosters that are harder to crack in the next few years I would venture. Plus the teams are currently enjoying a fair bit of success, so they don't need to rush any offensive help.

[Mr. Guru]

Ho Sang....fits this perfectly.