Should I go for it OR play conservative?

[power737]

This is my situation or pretty close.

The stats are more complicated but this is basically the idea in simple terms.

I am 5 points behind the leader.

Winner gets prize worth approx 5k, second gets nothing.

Goals are 1, assists are 1.

I have 20 players, 1 out for the season.

I can pick up any player (Stamkos) but it will cost me 10 points.

Stamkos has 14 games left so he should get between 12-17 which would more than offset the 10 points that it costs me.

But if I pick him up I will be now 15 behind the leader and risk Stamkos getting hurt and not getting those 10 points back from him.

I feel I have the best team in the pool and have gained 20 points in the last 2 weeks and can win without getting Stamkos.

But if I get Stamkos and he gets me 15 points -10 for trade=5 I obviously have a better chance.


Sorry for the long winded post.

Go for it and make trade?

Or stand pat?

[Eyenerd]

That's a mighty fine pot there!!

If Stamkos has another good night, I would say he has righted the ship and I would go for it. Typically he doesnt get injured so I wouldnt worry about that, I think his leg is rehabbed enough otherwise he wouldnt be playing.

I think Stamkos can get you 10 points in 14 games to at least make it a wash for the move. Do it!

[Dutch]

do it without stamkos if you can.

but either way, do what you gotta do for 5K holy **** nice pot!

[power737]

Thanks guys,

Ya it's a national pool, winner gets all inclusive trip for 2 (valued at 4k) and 1k to spend at hockey hall of fame.


I think I win without the trade as I've made more trades all year and sucked up losing 10 points each time to have the best team right now.

But it's still a tough call as I hate leaving potential points on the table.

[Shift Disturber]

Whether or not there is prize money involved, the last time I checked the objective of any pool is to win. So, go for it before 1st place scoops Stamkos to seal the victory.

[LawMan]

Wow, good luck with that.

If I understand you correctly the only way this move hurts you is if Stamkos has less than 10 points down the stretch. I'd expect PPG down the stretch so would take the slight risk and expected reward by adding him.

[Magicstew]

What you have to consider is if you don't take Stamkos, who do you put in that spot. If it is a player who gets 8 pts, then Stammer needs 18. What are your other options?

[Pengwin7]

What you have to consider is if you don't take Stamkos, who do you put in that spot. If it is a player who gets 8 pts, then Stammer needs 18. What are your other options?

This right here ^ is how I'm assuming the situation really shakes out.
I can't imagine you can just add an extra player to your roster and tack on those points.
[If you can just "add a player" without subtracting one, than YES you absolutely go with Stamkos and assume he can put up point-per-game production.]

In the stretch run of any playoffs, you definitely have to assume the following:
1. Your players will not get injured.
2. Invest in the player that gives you the best "production per game".

Safe teams rarely win pools - because somebody is rolling the dice on the high-return players... and somebody is having that risk fly without injury.
Anybody that passed on Crosby or Karlsson this year because they were "injury risks" is doing nothing but palm-face at this point in the season!!!

[power737]

I picked up Stamkos, just need 10 points from him to cancel out the 10 point trade fee.

Any more than 10 is gravy.

Option B would have been having only 19 players on my team instead of 20.

It's a salary cap pool, I lost Tarasenko to injury.

It seems like an easy decision but I feel I win the pool without paying that 10 point trade fee, hence the tough decision to pay it and risk a Stamkos injury.

I will let you know how it plays out, thanks for the help.

[Eyenerd]

I picked up Stamkos, just need 10 points from him to cancel out the 10 point trade fee.

Any more than 10 is gravy.

Option B would have been having only 19 players on my team instead of 20.

It's a salary cap pool, I lost Tarasenko to injury.

It seems like an easy decision but I feel I win the pool without paying that 10 point trade fee, hence the tough decision to pay it and risk a Stamkos injury.

I will let you know how it plays out, thanks for the help.

You should have asked us the other day ... the longer and longer you wait, then the higher chance it doesnt at least cancel out .. Stamkos put up a few points already which would have been on the way to 10 pts to cancel out! and now put up two goals already tonight

you are good my man ... well worth the 10 pts to 'buy' Stamkos!!

[power737]

Thanks,

After Tarasenko got hurt I was deciding between Ovie and Seguin.

Then Stammer had a good night and looked like he was heating up so I chose him.

I nearly left the spot empty but decided Stamkos gives me the best chance to get the most points.

Here is my team, Big buf is out tonight.

Any more injuries and I'm not trading though.


Here is my team.



YOUR SCORE $ 91 750 000
Goalie Corey Crawford $ 2 666 667
Goalie Antti Niemi $ 3 800 000

Defenceman Torey Krug $ 1 704 167
Defenceman Cody Franson $ 2 000 000
Defenceman P.K. Subban $ 2 875 000
Defenceman Dustin Byfuglien $ 5 200 000
Defenceman Brent Burns $ 5 760 000
Defenceman Erik Karlsson $ 6 500 000

Forward Cody Eakin $ 637 778
Forward Brendan Gallagher $ 870 000
Forward Brandon Saad $ 894 167
Forward Mason Raymond $ 1 000 000
Forward Cameron Atkinson $ 1 150 000
Forward Matt Duchene $ 3 500 000
Forward Chris Kunitz $ 3 725 000
Forward Claude Giroux $ 3 750 000
Forward Phil Kessel $ 5 400 000
Forward Patrick Kane $ 6 300 000
Forward Steven Stamkos $ 7 500 000
Forward Sidney Crosby $ 8 700 000

[Shift Disturber]

3G tonight - well done.

[Eyenerd]

3G tonight - well done.

1/3 of the way to breaking even after the first night .. not bad at all!

[suvojitde]

Not bad - hat trick the first day you pick him! You did lose Kane though, not sure how that impacts things.

[Shiva Blaster]

Wow, huge pot! Serious decision to be sure.

IMHO, fortune favours the bold. Play to win rather than playing not to lose.....the math and percentages work out in your favour, and although subtracting points this time of year would be scary, I think grabbing Stammer in the correct play here. I've been watching all the Tampa games, and even in the games he wasn't producing, he was hitting posts and getting piles of chances. Grab Stammer and ride him to victory!

Good luck!!! (you can PM me my 10% cut)