Super Bowl: Seahawks vs. Broncos

[Pengwin7]

Incorrect.
Vegas absolutely cares who wins any sporting event.

The line isn't just set based on the actual outcome.
Vegas moves the line based on how money is coming in and how THEY think the game will fall.

I've long blogged about how people should take the UNDER when betting a hockey scorer's point outcome and (to that event) I've been very, very right.
This is because betters are intrinsically OPTIMISTS and the OVER is always the more popular bet.

People also bet on the "offense" over the "defense".
It's this same culture that believes guys like Kovalchuk is one of the best hockey players in the world... because all they see is offensive highlights.

Vegas feasts on "knowing the better" and using that knowledge to win bets.
Popular teams are always given a push towards their side.

If Vegas started the actual spread at SEA -2... it typically means that they feel that SEA is the actual favourite by 3 or 4.

90% of bets have been on Denver to this point.
Now... they've collected so much money on DEN that they can push the line until it the money starts to even out.
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/s...manning-011914

The line is going to push probably all the way to DEN -5 (my opinion)... and if Denver wins by 3... Vegas will still make a ton of money.

[Axeman33]

I'd rather have my bag stapled to my leg then cheer for the $hithawks.

Go Bronco's!

[bigbabybuda]

Although I thought it was fairly obvious who would make it that is a huge number. How many people in the pool?

[metaldude26]

Don't kid yourself, the Broncos are a public team with Manning at the helm. They'll do better in this one if the Seahawks win although they will win either way because of the vig and because of the number of futures bets they've pulled in on other teams throughout the year.

From what I've seen the line has already moved from Broncos -1.5 to Broncos -2 although I'm not sure whether that's the sharps trying to bet up the line or the public striking early. I know I am looking for the line to move as close to -3 before striking on the Seahawks.

[hockeyrobot]

This year 183....last year 164. Kind of just been going up every year.

[Mr. Guru]

Originally posted by metaldude26 View Post
they will win either way because of the vig

And there it is!

[Pengwin7]

Vegas has lost money before.
2008.
The minority of cash flow, "Smart money", was on the Patriots.
The majority of cash flow, public's money, was on the underdog Giants.

If Vegas can't balance the cash flow by moving the line and collecting Seahawk bet totals that near the DEN bet totals, they could lose HUGE on a big Broncos win.

As of right now, Vegas is rooting for the Seahawks.

[Mr. Guru]

I know exactly how it works P7.

Again, 'Vegas' doesn't really care who wins. Sure, they make MORE money if certain teams win and would prefer certain outcomes, but at the end of the day they will make profit. They always do.

'Vegas' WILL shift the odds, and WILL balance the books. They can determine a gamblers bet. And they will definitely do this by the time the national anthem is done. Oh, they will make money off that too. And all of the other stupid side bets that everyone must gamble on.

You pretty much said it here:
Now... they've collected so much money on DEN that they can push the line until it the money starts to even out.

PS) Smart money = sharp money and public's money = kids money.

[metaldude26]

The line has already moved to Broncos -3. That's 1.5 in two days. I've got a small bet in on the Hawks at +3 but let's see if it moves even further over the next week.

[bigbabybuda]

Ihit the Broncos up for 3dimes within an hour. I new that line was going to move. My buddy is dead set on Seattle and I insisted he wait. It will be 4 1/2 plus by gametime

[Pengwin7]

Another thing that peaked my interest about the betting line is this:
*Did the major Vegas books (LVH) intentionally set the line to Seattle's favour (-2) just to spark big interest?

I mean... they moved it fast.
Did they anticipate this?
Or were they really truly shocked by the money coming in?

The reason I postulate this is that Denver is the sexy team... so they HAD to have known the betting would come in big-time PRO-DENVER.
(I'm not wrong here, am I... wouldn't you assume that's how the money would come in if you put a line at SEA -2)

With modern statistics gathering (think Nate Silver here), there should be enough statistical backing for Vegas to know that they can pull the betting close to even on the two teams.
So... they start the betting off-set, knowing they can take a huge amount of the kids/public money.
This generates "buzz" and people are quickly getting their bets in as fast as possible.
Starting the spread at -2 for Seattle is "sexy" and "interesting" and creates all kind of buzz.

People will be chatting "What did you get in at?".
It will be a big topic among the betting public.
(The way us homeowners like to say "What's your mortgage rate?"... "Oh, 3.5%... that's good, good, I got in at 3.25%... teehee).

Anyways, one would THINK that Vegas could pull even... and therefore creating buzz and moving the line works out to their advantage!
It grabs a whole lot more attention to start the line there, then to start it at DEN -1.5... (boring!!!)

[On the flip side: It's one thing to get a hold of the mass population's voting habits. But having a firm grip on how the betting public will place their bets... that's another thing. I really wonder if a severe line shift will bring out the big fish to place bets on Seattle. I don't see it. Maybe the big dogs who are in this to MAKE MONEY will do it. But the regular high-class joes that are in it for a "thrill" - I still see them laying on Denver. I don't know.)

I was reading that prior to last year, the Super Bowl betting hadn't risen in 7 years... and hadn't crossed the $100m mark.
It will this year... no doubt about that!