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Thread: My Projections - Best Bets vs. the Over/Under (Bodog)

  1. #16
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    Default Re: My Projections - Best Bets vs. the Over/Under (Bodog)

    Damn some of these seem pretty easy, I might have to get in on this next year.

    Do the over/unders have decent payouts?
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    Default Re: My Projections - Best Bets vs. the Over/Under (Bodog)

    Quote Originally Posted by Fast Tony DeNiro View Post
    Damn some of these seem pretty easy, I might have to get in on this next year.

    Do the over/unders have decent payouts?
    No, but I figure since I do it for living and if I do enough of them, I can increase my pot by 50% each year. I just took $1000 and turned it into $1500. And I can do that every year indefinitely. Plus - the $1000 pot is part of the $3000 I won a couple of years ago for picking (preseason) Malkin to win the Art Ross. So really it's costing me zero.
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    15-Team Keeper, points only, best 12 fwd, 4 dman, 2 G count. Playoffs count.

    F - Crosby, Atkinson, Zuccarello, Granlund, Marchand, Silfverberg, Kesler, Sheary, K.Hayes, Perron, Kunitz, Panik, Coyle, Bonino, Lee, Kreider, Haula, Pageau, Lehkonen, Bailey, Guentzel
    G - Bobrovsky, Talbot, Pickard, Brossoit
    D - Yandle, Schultz, Letang, Krug, Vlasic, Demers, Walman

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    Dobber Sports Supreme Grand Master

    Default Re: My Projections - Best Bets vs. the Over/Under (Bodog)

    Looks like I/we may have to thank the Bruins for being so far in that #1 seed that they can rest Iginla.
    He seemed poised to go over his 65.5pts if he played out a full season. He was totally pacing 2nd half to get to 66pts or more.
    Whew.

    (Though Vanek is going to exceed his 69.5pts if he gets 3pts in 3games... damn magic w/Tavares & Pac/DD... didn't see that coming at start of year)

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    Default Re: My Projections - Best Bets vs. the Over/Under (Bodog)

    I also got screwed by Hornqvist's sudden surge
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    F - Crosby, Atkinson, Zuccarello, Granlund, Marchand, Silfverberg, Kesler, Sheary, K.Hayes, Perron, Kunitz, Panik, Coyle, Bonino, Lee, Kreider, Haula, Pageau, Lehkonen, Bailey, Guentzel
    G - Bobrovsky, Talbot, Pickard, Brossoit
    D - Yandle, Schultz, Letang, Krug, Vlasic, Demers, Walman

  5. #20
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    Default Re: My Projections - Best Bets vs. the Over/Under (Bodog)

    Well... looks like I get to finish the season with a very, very solid 9-3 mark!
    75.000% hit mark... should rank as best in this thread.
    Woohoo.

    In order:
    1. Getzlaf 80.5pts. MISS. For three straight-years my big dog that I predicted to miss was Stamkos. I just needed him to miss a game or two to injury and he kept playing 82. I switched this year... to Getzlaf... and FAIL. Nice season Getzlaf. 87pts!
    2. Iginla 65.5pts. HIT. Little bit of luck here. Iggy was on FIRE to close the 2nd half. He was blazing to 61pts, then got rocked by Rinaldo and sat 4 of the final 7 BOS games. Thank you Zac. Iggy finished with 61pts.
    3. Vanek 69.5pts. HIT. A close one. Vanek put up 68pts. I knew he wouldn't hit this on BUF and was shocked he was traded so early and got to ride shot-gun with Tavares. Ooo mercy, but the theory was there. A deserved hit.
    4. Benn 67.5pts. MISS. Big, big miss. Benn & Seguin were incredible. Benn finished with 79pts and blitzed his over/under. I'm still not sure how opponents don't lock down their focus on that top line. Ho hum.
    5. Huberdeau 61.5pts. HIT... big, big HIT. The forums are littered with lovers of prospects. But ye be warned. Hard to put up points for a prospect on a low-talented team. And boy did I call this. 28pts for Hubs. Not close!
    6. Briere 46.5pts. HIT. Gotta give it to Danny - he is trying out there. MON is just too deep for him to get time. He actually surged a bit 2nd half... just to get to 25pts!!! LOL.
    7. Stepan 64.5pts. HIT. Different coach, different production. Different, simply meant unlikely to match last year's phenomenal year. He surged 2nd half too, but still 57pts was well short.
    8. Voracek 70.5pts. HIT. In a full season that doubles the 2nd half... it would have been close. He was on fire 2nd half... but totally stumbled first half and at 62pts finished 9pts short of an over.
    9. Ribeiro 68.5pts. HIT... enormous HIT. At 47pts, Ribs was 22pts short.. and he played 80games. Though Seguin had a HUGE year on his new team, he is the exception. Most players on new teams struggle with chemistry, which is greatly underrated.
    10. Ladd 62.5pts. HIT - My LOCK.. Ladd was actually reasonably solid all year. He paced near 62pts for a while... but I called it... the defensive West slowed him down in the 2nd half and he only got to 54pts.
    11. Perron 48.5pts. HIT. It shall be noted that I used the term "if he can stay healthy"... always the big risk picking "band-aid boys". I asked for him to play 70... and he put up 57 in 78... which would have been 51 in 70g. Nailed his point-per-game pace.
    12. Pominville 62.5pts. MISS. I made a lengthy, well-backed, strong case for Pominville who DID play another full slate of 82games. The big problem was his first half pace putting up only 7A in 13 October games. Both Koivu & Parise missed 15+ games, which hurt Poms production. But he closed with 19pts in 22 March/April games, with 14 of those even-strength as Koivu/Parise were back in the line-up. Considering the MIN injuries to top line linemates... finishing only 3pts back... on an OVER call... which I force myself to do... not a big shame.


    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    I've done over/under each of the last three seasons:

    2010-2011: 9-2
    2011-2012: 8-4 (Including nailing my "lock": Brad Boyes, UNDER)
    2012-2013: 7-5 (Including nailing my "lock": Erik Cole, UNDER)

    Overall, I believe that betters are "optimists" and betting agencies make their money on people picking the OVER. For that reason, I try to stay with the under. Last season, I was probably really only 4-5... but injuries to Karlsson, Spezza, and Kovalchuk locked up three hits. In 2011-2012, I should've had a sure OVER with Taylor Hall, except he only played 61 games.

    Without further adieu, my picks for 2013-2014:

    80.5 Getzlaf (ANA): UNDER.
    Considering they have Perry at 65.5, this seems like a good pick.

    65.5 Iginla (BOS): UNDER
    There's enough forward depth in Boston to limit Iginla's minutes.

    69.5 Vanek (BUF): UNDER
    Buffalo stinks... and now they get some Western Conference (defensive) opponents + Detroit added to their division.

    67.5 Benn (DAL): UNDER
    I like Benn, but I think opponents will key on Dallas' top line. Benn is in a different position than last year. Seguin in a different position. Some learning curve there for both.

    61.5 Huberdeau (FLA): UNDER
    I just think Florida is bad. They don't have their crappy Southeast Conference opponents any more.

    46.5 Briere (MON): UNDER
    Too much depth in Montreal. Not enough minutes for Briere.

    64.5 Stepan (NYR): UNDER
    That's just a lot of points.

    70.5 Voracek (PHI): UNDER
    Again... a lot of points.

    68.5 Ribeiro (PHX): UNDER
    Not enough offensive help there... unless Vrbata/Ribeiro becomes lethal tandem.
    [Though I will say Radim Vrbata is my potential break-out, 70pt potential candidate, if Ribs & him mesh.]

    63.5 Ladd (WPG): UNDER (My "lock")
    Previous to last year, Ladd had never eclipsed 60pts.
    Last year was Winnipeg against strictly Eastern Conference opponents.
    This year, he gets a new division with the defensively sound CHI, STL, NAS.
    I don't think the points will come as easy.

    OK, OK... that's 10 UNDERS.

    Two OVERs:
    48.5pts Perron (EDM): OVER.
    If he can stay healty for 70 games, I think this he'll get it. I predicted 5 Oilers to hit 60pts... so Perron's part of that group.

    62.5pts Pominville (MIN): OVER.
    Pom has hit 62pts or more FIVE times in his last SEVEN seasons. In those FIVE, he also played the full 82 games. He's a very healthy player. Last season he had 36pts in 47games, including 9 in 10 with MIN. So, he's missed just ten games in his last seven seasons and totalling at 0.82 points per game. Multiply that by 82 games and you've got 67pts. Parise & M.Koivu are arguably the two best linemates he's ever had and they'll have a full preseason to get all those guys on the same page.


    As for Dobber's picks.
    Pretty good... too many "OVER"s (7/15) in the "Damn Sure" group for me.
    If I'm making 15 picks... 12 will be unders, at least.

    Picking an OVER on any player pegged for over 70pts is too much risk, IMO.
    I don't like the Ovechkin is a "sure thing"... also factor in a mid-season trip to Russia with a TON of pressure/expectations... we shall see.


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    Default Re: My Projections - Best Bets vs. the Over/Under (Bodog)

    All in all, on $1000 wagered, I won $580. So next season I will bet $1580 and push to get it to $2500.

    According to my calculations, I should be a millionaire after the 2097-98 season
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    G - Bobrovsky, Talbot, Pickard, Brossoit
    D - Yandle, Schultz, Letang, Krug, Vlasic, Demers, Walman

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    Default Re: My Projections - Best Bets vs. the Over/Under (Bodog)

    Quote Originally Posted by Dobber View Post
    All in all, on $1000 wagered, I won $580. So next season I will bet $1580 and push to get it to $2500.

    According to my calculations, I should be a millionaire after the 2097-98 season

    I hope your taxation rules in Canada are different then ours are in the US.
    They separate betting wins & losses down here.

    Betting wins are "income". So, you end up paying tax on that $580.
    Betting losses can be "itemized", if you have enough deductions to itemize.

    It's a long story... I once joined this site called "World Winner" and enjoyed playing games for little prizes.
    But I played a lot.

    I registered with $100... but probably bet into $5000 worth of games over the calendar year.
    I won $5000 worth of games.
    I lost $5000 worth of games.

    And my balance said... $100.
    The same amount I put in.

    When it came tax time, I got a statement from World Winner that I needed to pay Uncle Sam tax on my $5000 of winnings.
    What?!?

    Anyways - just a note... because sometimes you link in nice little promotions to betting/gaming sites.
    In the US, people need to be prepared for how they wager money officially on betting.

    It can really sting you hard - if you don't know that some sites separate "winnings" from "losings".
    Not sure how it goes in Canada.

    Anyways - congrats on your profit.
    Wish I could bet... but now you know my story why I don't put any physical money on the line... any more.

  8. #23
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    Default Re: My Projections - Best Bets vs. the Over/Under (Bodog)

    Quote Originally Posted by Dobber View Post
    No, but I figure since I do it for living and if I do enough of them, I can increase my pot by 50% each year. I just took $1000 and turned it into $1500. And I can do that every year indefinitely. Plus - the $1000 pot is part of the $3000 I won a couple of years ago for picking (preseason) Malkin to win the Art Ross. So really it's costing me zero.
    curious how much you put down to win $3k on malkin if you don't mind me asking? i started using draftstreet a lot after you brought it to my attention, maybe i'll try bodog for next season. seems like there are some bets that us fantasy geeks should have an advantage on...

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    Default Re: My Projections - Best Bets vs. the Over/Under (Bodog)

    Quote Originally Posted by praba View Post
    curious how much you put down to win $3k on malkin if you don't mind me asking? i started using draftstreet a lot after you brought it to my attention, maybe i'll try bodog for next season. seems like there are some bets that us fantasy geeks should have an advantage on...
    That was a $120 bet
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    F - Crosby, Atkinson, Zuccarello, Granlund, Marchand, Silfverberg, Kesler, Sheary, K.Hayes, Perron, Kunitz, Panik, Coyle, Bonino, Lee, Kreider, Haula, Pageau, Lehkonen, Bailey, Guentzel
    G - Bobrovsky, Talbot, Pickard, Brossoit
    D - Yandle, Schultz, Letang, Krug, Vlasic, Demers, Walman

  10. #25
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    The Magnificent One

    Default Re: My Projections - Best Bets vs. the Over/Under (Bodog)

    Is bodog not doing player over/unders anymore?!

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    Default Re: My Projections - Best Bets vs. the Over/Under (Bodog)

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Guru View Post
    Is bodog not doing player over/unders anymore?!
    Not sure.
    I don't bet real money... just like to pick 'em.

    But they do currently have wagers for Richard, Calder, Vezina, Hart, and Art Ross... with a Norris section not yet filled in.
    So, I'd guess they are chugging through them right now.

    To have odds for Art Ross... they'd have to have some player projections... and to do that... they might as well post over/under on player totals.
    Crosby at 1/1. Woof.
    I like Nicklas Backstrom at 50/1. Give me $4 on that!

    I hope we'll see them soon.
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    Default Re: My Projections - Best Bets vs. the Over/Under (Bodog)

    what's the point

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    Dobber Sports Supreme Grand Master

    Default Re: My Projections - Best Bets vs. the Over/Under (Bodog)

    Quote Originally Posted by Dutch View Post
    Yikes, I think you have some CLEAR misses in there. And at the same time, you should put 100k on Selanne UNDER 43 pts, since he's not playing lol

    this is what I would say for your picks
    .....
    lt's see in april how we did

    Ummm......
    Seriously?
    (You know this thread is from last year... right? McFly?)
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    Default Re: My Projections - Best Bets vs. the Over/Under (Bodog)

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Ummm......
    Seriously?
    (You know this thread is from last year... right? McFly?)
    no I didn't see that haha

    thanks for making me look silly

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    Default Re: My Projections - Best Bets vs. the Over/Under (Bodog)

    Quote Originally Posted by Dutch View Post
    no I didn't see that haha
    thanks for making me look silly
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