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Thread: My Projections - Best Bets vs. the Over/Under (Bodog)

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    Default My Projections - Best Bets vs. the Over/Under (Bodog)

    After an exhaustive analysis of my projections vs. Bodog's over/under player listings (https://sports.bodog.eu/sports-betti...ayer-props.jsp) I have the following "best" 25 bets. Gleen from it what you will.

    I did place wagers myself. But I used play money. That is to say, when I won big a couple of years ago with Malkin winning the Art Ross, I kept $1000 in there and took the rest out. So that $1000 is money I never had and I consider 'play money'. If I lose it, I lose nothing. Please gamble responsibly.

    That being said, for me to lose the entire wad I would have lose all 25 of the "best" bets that I hand-picked. Not bloody likely. Worst-case, I lose 15 of them and try again next year with $300 bucks. Best-case, I turn $1000 into $1700+.


    I grouped them into three categories - Absolutely sure. Damn sure. And Kinda sure. And scaled my wagers downward accordingly. Here we go.


    Absolutely sure:
    1. Ovechkin OVER 89.5 pts
    2. Ovechkin OVER 48.5 g
    3. Datsyuk UNDER 80.5 pts
    4. Selanne UNDER 43.5 pts

    Damn sure:
    1. Iginla UNDER 65.5 pts
    2. Gagner OVER 54.5 pts
    3. Campbell OVER 42.5 pts
    4. Plekanec UNDER 58.5 pts
    5. Briere UNDER 46.5 pts
    6. Hornqvist UNDER 48.5 pts
    7. Jagr UNDER 54.5 pts
    8. Tavares OVER 40.5 g
    9. B. Richards UNDER 61.5 pts
    10 Karlsson OVER 64.5 pts
    11. Ryan OVER 63.5 pts
    12. Crosby OVER 32.5 g
    13. D. Sedin UNDER 76.5 pts
    14. Grabovski OVER 45.5 pts
    15. Wheeler OVER 65.5 pts

    Kinda sure:
    1. Cammalleri UNDER 53.5 pts
    2. Landeskog UNDER 55.5 pts
    3. Ryder OVER 51.5 pts
    4. Crosby UNDER 105.5 pts
    5. H. Sedin UNDER 81.5 pts
    6. Little OVER 50.5 pts


    Taking into account:
    a) If a player is injury prone, I tried not to bet the UNDER.
    b) If a player looked good for OVER, I tried to steer clear of injury prone guys unless it was absolutely necessary (i.e. Crosby scoring 33 goals is pretty easy to call, he'll do that if he plays 50 games)


    Discuss!
    The Best Fantasy Hockey Site
    14 Team Keeper, points only, best 12 skaters 3 dman 2 G count. Playoffs count.
    F - Crosby, Wheeler, Zuccarello, Brassard, Marchand, Tavares, Kesler, Gagner, K.Hayes, Perron, Kunitz, Nelson, Lee, Kreider, Scherbak, Tlusty, Bertuzzi, Weal
    G - Anderson, Halak, Stalock, Talbot, Pickard
    D - Yandle, Kronwall, D.Pouliot, Letang, Larsson, Stralman, Gostisbehere

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    Or don't. I thought it was interesting
    The Best Fantasy Hockey Site
    14 Team Keeper, points only, best 12 skaters 3 dman 2 G count. Playoffs count.
    F - Crosby, Wheeler, Zuccarello, Brassard, Marchand, Tavares, Kesler, Gagner, K.Hayes, Perron, Kunitz, Nelson, Lee, Kreider, Scherbak, Tlusty, Bertuzzi, Weal
    G - Anderson, Halak, Stalock, Talbot, Pickard
    D - Yandle, Kronwall, D.Pouliot, Letang, Larsson, Stralman, Gostisbehere

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    I've done over/under each of the last three seasons:

    2010-2011: 9-2
    2011-2012: 8-4 (Including nailing my "lock": Brad Boyes, UNDER)
    2012-2013: 7-5 (Including nailing my "lock": Erik Cole, UNDER)

    Overall, I believe that betters are "optimists" and betting agencies make their money on people picking the OVER. For that reason, I try to stay with the under. Last season, I was probably really only 4-5... but injuries to Karlsson, Spezza, and Kovalchuk locked up three hits. In 2011-2012, I should've had a sure OVER with Taylor Hall, except he only played 61 games.

    Without further adieu, my picks for 2013-2014:

    80.5 Getzlaf (ANA): UNDER.
    Considering they have Perry at 65.5, this seems like a good pick.

    65.5 Iginla (BOS): UNDER
    There's enough forward depth in Boston to limit Iginla's minutes.

    69.5 Vanek (BUF): UNDER
    Buffalo stinks... and now they get some Western Conference (defensive) opponents + Detroit added to their division.

    67.5 Benn (DAL): UNDER
    I like Benn, but I think opponents will key on Dallas' top line. Benn is in a different position than last year. Seguin in a different position. Some learning curve there for both.

    61.5 Huberdeau (FLA): UNDER
    I just think Florida is bad. They don't have their crappy Southeast Conference opponents any more.

    46.5 Briere (MON): UNDER
    Too much depth in Montreal. Not enough minutes for Briere.

    64.5 Stepan (NYR): UNDER
    That's just a lot of points.

    70.5 Voracek (PHI): UNDER
    Again... a lot of points.

    68.5 Ribeiro (PHX): UNDER
    Not enough offensive help there... unless Vrbata/Ribeiro becomes lethal tandem.
    [Though I will say Radim Vrbata is my potential break-out, 70pt potential candidate, if Ribs & him mesh.]

    63.5 Ladd (WPG): UNDER (My "lock")
    Previous to last year, Ladd had never eclipsed 60pts.
    Last year was Winnipeg against strictly Eastern Conference opponents.
    This year, he gets a new division with the defensively sound CHI, STL, NAS.
    I don't think the points will come as easy.

    OK, OK... that's 10 UNDERS.

    Two OVERs:
    48.5pts Perron (EDM): OVER.
    If he can stay healty for 70 games, I think this he'll get it. I predicted 5 Oilers to hit 60pts... so Perron's part of that group.

    62.5pts Pominville (MIN): OVER.
    Pom has hit 62pts or more FIVE times in his last SEVEN seasons. In those FIVE, he also played the full 82 games. He's a very healthy player. Last season he had 36pts in 47games, including 9 in 10 with MIN. So, he's missed just ten games in his last seven seasons and totalling at 0.82 points per game. Multiply that by 82 games and you've got 67pts. Parise & M.Koivu are arguably the two best linemates he's ever had and they'll have a full preseason to get all those guys on the same page.


    As for Dobber's picks.
    Pretty good... too many "OVER"s (7/15) in the "Damn Sure" group for me.
    If I'm making 15 picks... 12 will be unders, at least.

    Picking an OVER on any player pegged for over 70pts is too much risk, IMO.
    I don't like the Ovechkin is a "sure thing"... also factor in a mid-season trip to Russia with a TON of pressure/expectations... we shall see.

    Last edited by Pengwin7; September 19, 2013 at 11:11 PM.

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    Agreed, I don't feel too comfortable with the amount of OVER I have - and that's me showing restraint and cutting back. But at least Wheeler, Campbell and Tavares tend to play 82 games (fingers crossed). I wouldn't have done it otherwise
    The Best Fantasy Hockey Site
    14 Team Keeper, points only, best 12 skaters 3 dman 2 G count. Playoffs count.
    F - Crosby, Wheeler, Zuccarello, Brassard, Marchand, Tavares, Kesler, Gagner, K.Hayes, Perron, Kunitz, Nelson, Lee, Kreider, Scherbak, Tlusty, Bertuzzi, Weal
    G - Anderson, Halak, Stalock, Talbot, Pickard
    D - Yandle, Kronwall, D.Pouliot, Letang, Larsson, Stralman, Gostisbehere

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    My bets.

    OVER:
    Crosby(goals)
    Little
    Gagner
    Campbell
    Ryan
    Karlsson

    UNDER
    Datsyuk
    Selanne
    Briere
    Getzlaf
    Hornqvist
    Plekanec

    I like the under on Iggy too but have him on a fantasy squad so my heart wouldn't let me take it.
    16 tm pts only sal cap full keeper
    F:Malkin, Kessel, Strome, Zuccarello, Brassard, Nyquist, Radulov, Shinkaruk, B.Connolly, Buchnevich, Baertschi, Hossa
    D:Josi, Gustafsson, Carlson
    G:Fleury, Murray
    Farm: Goldobin, N.Ritchie, Gostisbehere, K.Connor, Burakovsky, Deangelo, Hellebuyck, Donskoi, Duclair, Petan
    IR: Ennis, Turris

    16 tm H2H keeper w/ [contracts]
    G A +/- PIM STP GWG W SO GAA SV%
    C: Spezza, Bjugstad[2], Backes[1], Rackell(LW)
    LW: Benn[2], Marleau, Eriksson(RW), Ehlers(RW)[3]
    RW: Ryan, Hossa, Nylander(R)
    D: Letang[1], Klingberg, Gostisbehere(R)
    G:Rask[1], Bobrovsky[2]
    IR:

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    I ran through them and ending up laying cash on 4:

    1. Ryan OVER 63.5 pts
    2. Spezza OVER 62.5 pts
    Figure these two guys playing together should do just fine. Figuring them both for 70pts.

    3. Kessel OVER 32.5 G

    4. Selanne UNDER 43.5 pts

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    So with Gagner's jaw injury that's one OVER that's toast...
    16 tm pts only sal cap full keeper
    F:Malkin, Kessel, Strome, Zuccarello, Brassard, Nyquist, Radulov, Shinkaruk, B.Connolly, Buchnevich, Baertschi, Hossa
    D:Josi, Gustafsson, Carlson
    G:Fleury, Murray
    Farm: Goldobin, N.Ritchie, Gostisbehere, K.Connor, Burakovsky, Deangelo, Hellebuyck, Donskoi, Duclair, Petan
    IR: Ennis, Turris

    16 tm H2H keeper w/ [contracts]
    G A +/- PIM STP GWG W SO GAA SV%
    C: Spezza, Bjugstad[2], Backes[1], Rackell(LW)
    LW: Benn[2], Marleau, Eriksson(RW), Ehlers(RW)[3]
    RW: Ryan, Hossa, Nylander(R)
    D: Letang[1], Klingberg, Gostisbehere(R)
    G:Rask[1], Bobrovsky[2]
    IR:

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    Gagner will be no action, he has to play in the first game for the bet to count.

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    Hey All,

    I did these over under bets last year and came out 4-1. Thanks to Pengwin for posting last year and bringing it to my attention.

    I agree with his strategy of taking unders. This year is no different.

    Jagr Under 54.5: No way he plays a full year and has a weaker Center on a low scoring NJD team.

    Ribeiro Under 68.5: Defensive team with no scoring winger support.

    Shea Weber Under 48.5: This one is borderline but just don't think NSH has any offense.

    Stepan: Under 64.5: Never good when a player holds out and 64.5 would be a new career high by over 13 pts (not counting last year).

    I am also considering Ladd and Getzlaf Under, just haven't pulled the trigger.

    I just realized that for these bets to be live, the player MUST play GAME 1. Last year, they just need to play 10 games. My Stepan pick could be scratched

    Good Luck on all your wagers!

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    Default Re: My Projections - Best Bets vs. the Over/Under (Bodog)

    At the mid-way mark (41games):
    Getzlaf. 47pts in 39games (42 team). He needs just 34pts in 40games to eclipse 80.5pts. MISS?
    Iginila. 27pts in 40games. He needs 39pts in 42games to eclipse 65.5pts. HIT.
    Vanek. 31pts in 38games (41 team). He needs 39pts in 41games to eclipse 69.5pts. HIT??
    Benn. 35pts in 39games. He needs 33pts in 43games to eclipse 65.5pts. 50/50.
    Huberdeau. 15pts in 39games (41 team). He needs 47pts in 41games. No way. HIT.
    Briere. 10pts in 29games (41 team). He needs 37pts in 41games. No way. HIT.
    Stepan. 25pts in 41games. He needs 40pts in 41games. No way. HIT.
    Voracek. 27pts in 40games. He needs 44pts in 42games. No way. HIT.
    Ribeiro. 29pts in 39games. He needs 40pts in 43games. No way. HIT??
    Ladd. 29pts in 42games. He needs 34pts in 40games. 50/50.
    ...
    Perron. 32pts in 38games (42 team). He needs just 17pts in 40games. If he plays 30g... HIT?
    Pominville. 28pts in 42games. He needs 35pts in 40games. MISS?

    Projections: 9 HIT, 3 MISS (Getzlaf appears to be the only definite MISS).

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    Default Re: My Projections - Best Bets vs. the Over/Under (Bodog)

    Just glancing at mine - they look pretty sweet, eh? And the Gagner pick is ineligible
    The Best Fantasy Hockey Site
    14 Team Keeper, points only, best 12 skaters 3 dman 2 G count. Playoffs count.
    F - Crosby, Wheeler, Zuccarello, Brassard, Marchand, Tavares, Kesler, Gagner, K.Hayes, Perron, Kunitz, Nelson, Lee, Kreider, Scherbak, Tlusty, Bertuzzi, Weal
    G - Anderson, Halak, Stalock, Talbot, Pickard
    D - Yandle, Kronwall, D.Pouliot, Letang, Larsson, Stralman, Gostisbehere

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    Default Re: My Projections - Best Bets vs. the Over/Under (Bodog)

    Three of your top four look like super-great!
    Ovechkin is slumping for points & assists... I think he's dropped below 90pt pace.
    It will be interesting to see how Sochi affects (already affecting?) his performance.

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    Default Re: My Projections - Best Bets vs. the Over/Under (Bodog)

    Not as well as I was looking midseason, but looks like I'll nail about 75% of these. The Gagner wager is VOID as he didn't play in Game 1.

    A couple of close ones
    The Best Fantasy Hockey Site
    14 Team Keeper, points only, best 12 skaters 3 dman 2 G count. Playoffs count.
    F - Crosby, Wheeler, Zuccarello, Brassard, Marchand, Tavares, Kesler, Gagner, K.Hayes, Perron, Kunitz, Nelson, Lee, Kreider, Scherbak, Tlusty, Bertuzzi, Weal
    G - Anderson, Halak, Stalock, Talbot, Pickard
    D - Yandle, Kronwall, D.Pouliot, Letang, Larsson, Stralman, Gostisbehere

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    Default Re: My Projections - Best Bets vs. the Over/Under (Bodog)

    Quote Originally Posted by Dobber View Post
    Not as well as I was looking midseason, but looks like I'll nail about 75% of these. The Gagner wager is VOID as he didn't play in Game 1.
    "Nail 75%"... I don't know about that.
    I thought you were a "numbers guy" - didn't you do statistics in school?

    In your "absolutely sure" group: 3 out of 4. Ovechkin is not going to hit 90pts unless he does 21pts in 10games. Forget it.
    In your "damn sure" group: You'll miss five for sure (Campbell, Jagr, Tavares, Ryan, Grabo). At best that's 9/14... with Iginla & Wheeler as possible misses that could put you at 50/50.
    In your "kinda sure" group: You've missed Landeskog & Ryder... possibly Crosby if he puts up 12pts in his final 11games. Either 4/6 or 3/6.

    Best case: 16/24 = 67%
    Worst case: 13/24 = 54%

    For my own picks:
    SURE MISSES (3): Getzlaf (UNDER), Benn (UNDER), Pominville (OVER)

    SURE HITS (7): Huberdeau (UNDER), Briere (UNDER), Stepan (UNDER), Voracek (Under), Ribeiro (UNDER), Ladd (UNDER - my "lock"... unless he puts up 14pts in 10 games), Perron (OVER)

    MAYBE: (2):
    Iginla (UNDER 65.5pts). He's been on FIRE in the 2nd half. He has 59pts in 71games. Needs 7pts in final 10games to be "OVER".
    Vanek (UNDER 69.5pts). He'll need 12pts in his final 10games to hit it. A likely "hit".


    So... I'm looking at 8/12 (67%) or 9/12 (75%) with my "lock".
    Another "good" season.

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    Default Re: My Projections - Best Bets vs. the Over/Under (Bodog)

    75% sounds good to me

    I did enough stats to last 10 lifetimes. Now I don't drill down deeper if I don't need to. I eyeballed my results and in 0.5 seconds came up with that 75% answer. That in itself is impressive

    Ah well, at least it's a profit.
    The Best Fantasy Hockey Site
    14 Team Keeper, points only, best 12 skaters 3 dman 2 G count. Playoffs count.
    F - Crosby, Wheeler, Zuccarello, Brassard, Marchand, Tavares, Kesler, Gagner, K.Hayes, Perron, Kunitz, Nelson, Lee, Kreider, Scherbak, Tlusty, Bertuzzi, Weal
    G - Anderson, Halak, Stalock, Talbot, Pickard
    D - Yandle, Kronwall, D.Pouliot, Letang, Larsson, Stralman, Gostisbehere

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