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Thread: TSN's top fantasy players a little strange

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    Default TSN's top fantasy players a little strange

    So TSN has its top 50 fantasy hockey players in the latest edition of the Hockey News. It combines this list (http://www.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/feature/?id=105165) into a top 50 list.

    There are some surprises.

    Stamkos is #1, while Crosby is #2.

    Daniel Sedin is #5.

    Malkin is #13.

    Giroux is #19.

    Tavares is #20.

    Kunitz is #21.

    Stepan is #26.

    Jimmy Howard is ahead of Niemi.

    Justin Williams is #39.
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    Some guys not on the list:

    Rinne is only the seventh ranked goalie. Bobrovsky is the 12th ranked goalie.

    Pieterangelo is the 12th highest defencemen.

    Suter is the 14th highest.
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    Wow, Tavares is just a small shade more valuable than Kunitz, and D.Sedin over Malkin? Good to know.

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    1. re: Crosby vs. Stamkos.
    A comparison between a 64game Crosby vs. 82game Stamkos is impossible unless somebody can also factor in "replacement value" of a waiver wire player for Crosby.

    I have a 6-category (G,A,+-,PPP, SOG, PIM) score calculator for last year.
    In 36 games, Crosby put up 166pts. 4.61pts per game.
    In 48 games (full), Stamkos put up 158pts. 3.29pts per game.

    In 48 games (full), a typical "waiver forward" in most leagues (say Eric Fehr, Danny Cleary) will put up 60pts. 1.25pts per game.

    So... the math:
    64x(4.61 Crosby) + 18x(1.25 waiverF) = 318pts [Crosby's portion = 295pts]
    82x(3.29 Stamkos) = 270pts


    Now, my spreadsheet doesn't automatically factor in HITS, but can.
    If we did that, a 82-game Stamkos > 64-pt Crosby.
    But... you can still find a replacement player for Crosby in that 18-game stretch.
    And... that re-added value probably pushes you back over Stamkos.

    The only league where I could see projected Stamkos over Crosby is if a GM can not add a replacement player while Crosby is down.
    But in most standard leagues with waivers & IR... it's Crosby, EASILY, if he gets 64 (or more).



    2. re: Weber vs. Subban
    TSN has Weber ranked ahead of Subban.
    But... the only stats they have Weber projected for more of is:
    *1 extra goal
    *80 extra hits

    Well... hits aren't shit. They are easy to come by.
    I know for FACT... that Subban's +9 in PPP combined with +60 PIM are worth more than Weber's +90hits.


    Summary:
    The fantasy guy at TSN has his algorithm wrong and is weighting HITS too much... which explains BOTH the Weber>Subban and Stamkos>Crosby rankings.
    He also doesn't consider replacement value, which is REAL in most leagues.

    Thus, I'd probably have to give the TSN guy's rankings a D.
    Thumbs down.
    Last edited by Pengwin7; September 18, 2013 at 1:48 PM.

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    Using a weighted three year average of their full season prorated stats (50-33-17), Tavares and Kunitz have similar stats. Tavares has a slight lead in Goals/SOG and Kunitz has an enormous lead in +/-. They're close enough to be a wash in PPP/AST/PIM. Taking into account Hits, which many serious leagues do, Kunitz again has an enormous lead. I'm not arguing for drafting Kunitz before Tavares, but they have had similar values the past couple years. Obviously Tavares has much more talent and is much younger, but it's only the stats that matter, and if Kunitz is again playing with Crosby all year, he'll probably put up great stats again.

    As for Crosby over Stamkos, what if you're using a replacement player for 50 games and only have Crosby for 32 games and have to use up your IR spot all year, which hinders your roster flexibility? There's a much more real risk of that with Sid than there is with Stamkos. That said, I would rather have Sid, because of the huge upside.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Skin Blues View Post
    That said, I would rather have Sid, because of the huge upside.
    Great point.
    If Sid stays healthy for 82games, a fantasy team with Crosby is going to have a huge likelihood of winning their pool (unless they totally pooch their other picks).
    If Stamkos stays healthy for 82games... well, you get what you paid for and you are in standard contention. (Which isn't bad... but it's not "Crosby healthy" sort of dominance.)

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    Thats pretty bad.

    For another laugh check ESPN's top 100 .... they Have Kovalchuk at #64 and dont have Bobby Ryan in the top 100 forwards......

    http://espn.go.com/nhl/notebook/_/pa...rank_forwards/
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    Quote Originally Posted by wendelclark17 View Post
    Thats pretty bad.

    For another laugh check ESPN's top 100 .... they Have Kovalchuk at #64 and dont have Bobby Ryan in the top 100 forwards......

    http://espn.go.com/nhl/notebook/_/pa...rank_forwards/
    That top 100 isnt a fantasy ranking though. TSN's is.
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    Quote Originally Posted by wendelclark17 View Post
    Thats pretty bad.

    For another laugh check ESPN's top 100 .... they Have Kovalchuk at #64 and dont have Bobby Ryan in the top 100 forwards......

    http://espn.go.com/nhl/notebook/_/pa...rank_forwards/
    It seems the people at ESPN must not know who he is like the people of Ottawa.
    And how can you not put Kovalchuk on their he should be at a 3 ppg pace in the KHL. Khl points count in fantasy.
    Also I am surprised they do not have Ovechkin on there twice. RW and LW haha
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skin Blues View Post
    Using a weighted three year average of their full season prorated stats (50-33-17), Tavares and Kunitz have similar stats. Tavares has a slight lead in Goals/SOG and Kunitz has an enormous lead in +/-. They're close enough to be a wash in PPP/AST/PIM. Taking into account Hits, which many serious leagues do, Kunitz again has an enormous lead. I'm not arguing for drafting Kunitz before Tavares, but they have had similar values the past couple years. Obviously Tavares has much more talent and is much younger, but it's only the stats that matter, and if Kunitz is again playing with Crosby all year, he'll probably put up great stats again.
    I understand your logic but I think it's flawed. I don't think any intelligent fantasy player uses only weighted averages for projections. Especially since we're talking about JT. It would make more sense to look at his development curve and look at the yearly progression and base JT specifically on something like that. Kunitz, sure, look at the averages, but using only previous stats does not come close to telling an accurate story of what to expect from year to year.
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    I know it's not the only thing to look at, but it helps take a lot of the bias out. People tend to overvalue pure goal scorers like Tavares. He's going into his 5th season and has never had a point-per-game season or a season with a positive +/-. In a points-only league sure, he's elite. But when you add in +/-, PIM, and usually Hits and Blocks, he's just not that special. Last season he was only 33rd on ESPN's player rater in such leagues, despite not missing a single game and having a 17.3 shooting %. Kunitz ranked 2nd overall. Again... nobody should rank solely based on previous seasons, but Tavares isn't a fresh faced rookie with tons of unrealized potential anymore. We have a pretty good idea of what to expect from him. And based on Dobber's projections, with reasonable guesses on SOG of 200 and 275, Kunitz outranks Tavares. Just something to think about.

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    Well, a month into the season and Kunitz is outperforming Tavares. More points, and on top of that, a +13 advantage in +/-. He could very well out-perform him in every category by season's end.

    Last year there was a comparison of Toews to Kunitz and it ended up that Kunitz beat out Toews in every category except SOG, including a huge advantage in PPP (16-6). Even with Crosby missing 25% of the season. Maybe it's time his value is properly recognized.

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