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Thread: Crazy or not?

  1. #1
    badger's Avatar
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    Default Crazy or not?

    In a 10 team league that autodrafts (stats in sig below), am I nuts for considering holding off on all goalies until the end with the intention of getting Pavelec, Halak, and Thomas? Most owners stick to yahoo's predraft list. I have the picks 2, 19, 22, etc...

    What are the chances these three can be enough for this season?

    Thanks for any input.
    12-Team League: One-Year, H2H Format
    Roster: 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 2G, 5B, 2IR

    C: Crosby, Eichel, Huberdeau (L)
    LW: Hall (C), Hartnell, Vanek (R), Stewart (R)
    RW: Perron (L), Yakupov (L), Semin (L)
    D: Byfuglien (R), Weber, Ekman-Larsson, Suter
    G: Bishop, Elliot, Bernier
    IR:
    Stats: G,A,+/-,PIM,PPP,SOG,W,GAA,SV%,SHO

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    I think it's a gamble I'd be willing to take, especially in an autodraft league (which I hate by the way )

    With those stats, Pavelec is a decent goalie and Thomas could have a huge season with Florida (kinda like when he came out of nowhere with Boston a few years back). Halak could bounce back strong as well, especially with the stellar D in St-Louis.

    While other managers are taking goalies in the top 10 rounds, you'll be stacking up on enough firepower to compensate your lack of star goalies. Like I said, these 3 guys can have great seasons, but even a mediocre one could be absorbed by some great offensive stats.
    Keeper league 16 teams (H2H, keep 18-20 NHLers, 15 minors; Championships 2009-10, 2013-14)
    Scoring Cats: G-A-PTS-PPG-PPA-(+/-)-PIM-SHP-SOG-FW-GWG / W-L-SVS-SV%-GAA-SO

    C- Crosby, Toews, Stastny, Cammalleri
    LW- MacKinnon, Landeskog, Nyquist, Burakovsky
    RW- Pavelski, Voracek, Forsberg, Oshie
    D- Yandle, Carlson, Goligoski, E. Johnson
    G- Price, Varlamov, Lack, Greiss
    B/U- J.Staal, E.Staal

    Minors:
    F: Milano, N.Schmaltz, Dvorak, Merkley, Senyshyn, Beauvillier, D.Shore
    D: Provorov, Pulock, Montour, Lindell
    G: Hellebuyck, Calvin Pickard, Taylor

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    I don't mind for two reasons:

    1) It's a H2H league, so all you need is to remain competitive, make the playoffs and hope your goalies peak at that time.

    2) You have 10 skater and 4 goalie categories. Taking out SHP/SHO which are infrequent weekly, you have 9 vs 3. You can go for more offense/peripherals to ensure a strong week and only hope that your goaltending won't flop more often than not. Also, without saves, if your early ratios are strong you could bench your goalies after meeting the minimum (if you have one).

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    I think it's a good risk.
    Two years ago, I remember that I got beat in the H2H playoffs by a guy that was rostering Mike Smith and Brian Elliott and those two guys were on NOBODY's radar to start 2011-2012. I'm still sore about that.

    Last year, how many teams did AMAZING with Sergei Bobrovsky?! (who was considered the absolute last #1 goalie picked from the 30 NHL goalies).

    Pick your goalies late and get good relative value out of them.

    H2H is about winning half the categories.
    Especially with a 10/4 category split... go hardcore on your skater selections and lock down 8 of those (G,A,PIM,PPP,SOG,GWG,FOW,Hits).

    Not crazy.
    Final answer.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    I think it's a good risk.
    Two years ago, I remember that I got beat in the H2H playoffs by a guy that was rostering Mike Smith and Brian Elliott and those two guys were on NOBODY's radar to start 2011-2012. I'm still sore about that.

    Last year, how many teams did AMAZING with Sergei Bobrovsky?! (who was considered the absolute last #1 goalie picked from the 30 NHL goalies).

    Pick your goalies late and get good relative value out of them.

    H2H is about winning half the categories.
    Especially with a 10/4 category split... go hardcore on your skater selections and lock down 8 of those (G,A,PIM,PPP,SOG,GWG,FOW,Hits).

    Not crazy.
    Final answer.
    Hey Pengwin, given my goaltending and head to head setup, would you suggest I ship niemi for some skater upgrades then? You're wise beyond your years on here, so I always appreciate your insight.

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    It's not crazy at all considering a few things.

    -First of all it's a shallow league. 10 teams is around the bare minimum for a league. There's over 30 goalies in the NHL that will either be a sure-fire starter or at least split duties with another goalie. That's over three times the teams in your league. Even if everybody lands two solid goalies that's still enough to get some decent quality in that position.

    -Your league is biased towards face-off winning centers and especially face-off winning centers that shoot a lot. Pretty much any league that has FW as a category is biased towards centers in a category format because that statistic is unique to centers. Can you think of another stat for a skater that's as unique to that position as FW? I can't. I'd spend your top picks getting the best face-off centers that score as well. Guys like Crosby and Toews. I did a one year league that had the same categories minus hits and blocks and I was a top two team annually because I followed that strategy. That was a twelve team league as well.

    -It's not a permanent mistake if it turns out to be one presuming you draft your forwards and D well. You can always trade for a goalie if that's what you need to do since you'll have an over-abundance of other positions. So take a good strategy and run with it.

    -Goalies are the least predictable position with the least predictable stats. Very few goalies are consistently great. Currently I'd only put Rask and Lundqvist as that type of goalie. Beyond that you just don't know and there's examples of that every season. One season Halak is Montreal's savior competing with Carey Price and running the playoffs and now he's fighting with Brian Elliott and Jake Allen to ensure his quality. Mike Smith was trash in Tampa at least in terms of fantasy production and now he's a reliable (well, as far as goalies go) starter in Phoenix. Bryz was considered a pretty good starter who hadn't had a chance on a good team then he went to Philly and now his careers pretty much over. Bobrovsky was recognized as something special in Philly but didn't realize it till he won the Calder in Columbus of all franchises. I could provide more but you get the point.

    So go for it.

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    The Magnificent One

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    Quote Originally Posted by jcairns View Post
    Hey Pengwin, given my goaltending and head to head setup, would you suggest I ship niemi for some skater upgrades then? You're wise beyond your years on here, so I always appreciate your insight.
    I suggest you create a separate thread for this question, as this one belongs to badger.

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    I could swap out the likes of Nabakov, Dubnyk, Varlamov, or one of the Leafs tandem for Thomas if that would be a better option. Just not sure of Thomas' impact.

    But either way, it seems that my plan is well accepted. Thanks for the input.
    12-Team League: One-Year, H2H Format
    Roster: 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 2G, 5B, 2IR

    C: Crosby, Eichel, Huberdeau (L)
    LW: Hall (C), Hartnell, Vanek (R), Stewart (R)
    RW: Perron (L), Yakupov (L), Semin (L)
    D: Byfuglien (R), Weber, Ekman-Larsson, Suter
    G: Bishop, Elliot, Bernier
    IR:
    Stats: G,A,+/-,PIM,PPP,SOG,W,GAA,SV%,SHO

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