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Thread: Varlamov vs Pavelec

  1. #1
    spanyon's Avatar
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    Default Varlamov vs Pavelec

    1 yr W GAA SV% SO

    who do you take
    10-team - 1yr, h2h Yahoo! - 2 Waiver pickups/week
    G,A,+/-,Hits,PPP,SOG,W,GAA,SV%,SO
    Daily starts: 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 2 UTIL, 2G, 6BE

    C: B.Richards, Grabovski, MacKinnon, Kesler
    LW: Vanek(RW), Pacioretty,
    RW: Ovechkin, Iginla, Wheeler, Okposo, Neil
    D: Letang, Green, Phaneuf
    G: Crawford, Price, Pavelec
    IR: R. Nash

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    Pavelec without hesitation. The Jets and Avalanche D are not even on the same planet in terms of depth and skill. Add to that the fact that Varlamov has a quality veteran backup challenging him for starts and Pavelec is the uncontested #1, it's hard not to go with Pavelec.


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    I'm going the other way here. Varly really disappointed last season but was great the year before. He's due to bounce back, even with a crappy defense. Pavelec's problems have always been mental, not physical. Why should we assume that will change now?
    12 team Full Dynasty w cap. 13F, 7D, 2G, 5B.
    G 4.25, A 2.75, PPP 1.5, SHP 3, Hits 0.4, Blocks 0.5, PIM 0.25, DFP 1
    W 5 OTL 1 SO 6 SV 0.25 L-1 GS 1

    F:Stamkos, C Stew, R Johansen, B Dubinsky, Max Pac, Umberger, B Ryan, D Backes, T Ruutu, Lucic, Ott, MSL, Heatley, C Kunitz, J Benn, L Adam

    D: C Fowler, Kronwall, A Goligoski, JM Liles, M Giordano, K Letang, N Nikitin, R Josi

    G: J Quick, A Niemi, C Anderson, Rinne


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    I think Pavs is marginally superior in all 4 cats you use. Perhaps Roy can turn Varly around but I don't see it happening this year with that Colorado Dman group.

    Pavelec has gone before Varly in every draft I have seen thus far, whatever that's worth.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dongjohnson View Post
    I'm going the other way here. Varly really disappointed last season but was great the year before. He's due to bounce back, even with a crappy defense. Pavelec's problems have always been mental, not physical. Why should we assume that will change now?
    In 2013, the "goals for" rank of teams Winnipeg faced was 7th best in the league. In 2014, this will drop to 28th best. That's huge.

    In 2012, the "goals for" rank of teams Colorado faced was 21st best. In 2014, this will increase to 13th best.

    So what has changed? The quality of competition Pavelec is facing will go down, and the quality that Varlamov will face is going up.

    And Colorado has done absolutely nothing to improve their terrible defence.

    I'd go with Pavelec in a one year league.

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    Quote Originally Posted by als_revenge View Post
    In 2013, the "goals for" rank of teams Winnipeg faced was 7th best in the league. In 2014, this will drop to 28th best. That's huge.

    In 2012, the "goals for" rank of teams Colorado faced was 21st best. In 2014, this will increase to 13th best.

    So what has changed? The quality of competition Pavelec is facing will go down, and the quality that Varlamov will face is going up.

    And Colorado has done absolutely nothing to improve their terrible defence.

    I'd go with Pavelec in a one year league.
    Not saying it's 100% logical. Just kind of a hunch, mixed in with some experience. Sometimes, you have to go against conventional wisdom. To me, Pavelec's mental blockages outweigh almost everything else. Being a goalie is 98% mental.
    12 team Full Dynasty w cap. 13F, 7D, 2G, 5B.
    G 4.25, A 2.75, PPP 1.5, SHP 3, Hits 0.4, Blocks 0.5, PIM 0.25, DFP 1
    W 5 OTL 1 SO 6 SV 0.25 L-1 GS 1

    F:Stamkos, C Stew, R Johansen, B Dubinsky, Max Pac, Umberger, B Ryan, D Backes, T Ruutu, Lucic, Ott, MSL, Heatley, C Kunitz, J Benn, L Adam

    D: C Fowler, Kronwall, A Goligoski, JM Liles, M Giordano, K Letang, N Nikitin, R Josi

    G: J Quick, A Niemi, C Anderson, Rinne


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    Quote Originally Posted by dongjohnson View Post
    Not saying it's 100% logical. Just kind of a hunch, mixed in with some experience. Sometimes, you have to go against conventional wisdom. To me, Pavelec's mental blockages outweigh almost everything else. Being a goalie is 98% mental.
    ....and 98% of goalies are mental, lol.

    But I do hear what you are saying. There are times when the numbers tell me to do one thing...but there's that little nagging feeling telling me that it's just not the right move.

    And I'm also not keen on Pavelec, generally. But I also happen to have little faith in Varlamov too!

    Cheers.

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    I like Pavelec for this year too

  9. #9
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    I agree that neither of them is a great option. Both are probably mid-level at best for next season.
    12 team Full Dynasty w cap. 13F, 7D, 2G, 5B.
    G 4.25, A 2.75, PPP 1.5, SHP 3, Hits 0.4, Blocks 0.5, PIM 0.25, DFP 1
    W 5 OTL 1 SO 6 SV 0.25 L-1 GS 1

    F:Stamkos, C Stew, R Johansen, B Dubinsky, Max Pac, Umberger, B Ryan, D Backes, T Ruutu, Lucic, Ott, MSL, Heatley, C Kunitz, J Benn, L Adam

    D: C Fowler, Kronwall, A Goligoski, JM Liles, M Giordano, K Letang, N Nikitin, R Josi

    G: J Quick, A Niemi, C Anderson, Rinne


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