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Thread: Philadelphia Flyers – Are Experts Stupid?

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    Default Philadelphia Flyers – Are Experts Stupid?

    If I read one more column, article or opinion about how the Flyers overachieved this year, the bacon and eggs I had this morning or going pay me another visit.

    The Hockey News, PhillyBlurbs, Philly.com, TheStar.com, etc etc – everyone seems to be expressing shock about how well this team did. They made the playoffs. They made the semi-final.

    You know what I think? I think they did everything I thought they would. Pulling out the 2007-08 Dobber’s Fantasy Guide and scrolling down to the predictions, I had Philly going 43-31-8 for 94 points and finishing seventh in the conference.

    They went 42-29-11, 95 points and finished sixth.

    It wasn’t a big leap of faith to predict them to do this well and it isn’t because I’m any good at predicting these things – I had TB making the playoffs, after all.

    But with the Flyers, to me, it was always obvious. They needed a great goaltender and they got one. Long-time DobberHockey readers know how impressed I was with the trade that brought in Biron. I’ve always been a big fan. Coburn looked great to end last season, as well.

    The Flyers brought in Briere, Hartnell, and Timonen. Plug those three into last year’s lineup, add a good goaltender, and figure on small improvements by Carter, Richards and Umberger and “Voila” – you have yourself a playoff team. Of course, nobody saw Richards jumping forward this much, this quickly. But even if he just made the normal step forward and posted 55 points, the team still would have made the playoffs. It just would have meant that Briere would have been leaned on a lot more, and he would have picked up 10 or 15 more points.

    The point is, how can anyone look at the roster back on September 30 and not predict Philly to get into the playoffs. The only “overachieving” they did was put out the Habs, and that was just a case of a hot team doing everything right – every team has spurts of play like that, the Flyers just had it happen at the right time.


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    Default Philadelphia Flyers – Are Experts Stupid?

    Some \'expert\'s\' opinions were probably skewed because of how bad they were last year.

    ...if I might add, we are currently dating, and she is quite a handful in the bedroom...

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    jl67 is right, it\'s because the team was just so so bad last year. It\'s rare for a team to rebound as quickly and as well as they did.

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    And every year, half the experts predict the Stanley Cup Champion to repeat again. How unoriginal is that? Nobody wants to look at the talent on the team and make a guess that way.
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    Dobber wrote:
    And every year, half the experts predict the Stanley Cup Champion to repeat again. How unoriginal is that? Nobody wants to look at the talent on the team and make a guess that way.
    i choosed pittsburgh in the east, but i had anaheim in the west...not because they wont the cup last year...schneider, pronger niedermyer and giguere...wow..you can add beauchemin if you want to...

    they needed a little bit more offense(perry healty)

    but they didnt lost game 2-1 or 1-0...they where poor on defense..!
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    Yeah, but just wait until next year. The Flyers are so cash strapped, it\'s funny. They have $55 million committed to 15 players, and that doesn\'t even include Carter, Umberger, Jones, Modry or Prospal. Rathje will most likely retire freeing up $3.5 million but that sure don\'t leave them enough to make offers to either Carter or Umberger. Flyers will still need to add the salaries of another 6 - 8 guys to fill out their roster yet somehow manage to get under the cap.

    Good luck Philly and hope you enjoyed your one year run.
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    The thing with the Flyers is they are a rich team. One loophole with this cap is the ability to waive expensive guys and stash them in the minors.

    Look for them to do whatever it takes to sign Carter. I can see both Umberger and Lupul being moved for a defenseman (perhaps together). Philly has some phenomenal prospects coming up (especially Giroux), and some underrated guys like Bartulis.

    They will waive/cut Hatcher/whoever else they need to to make sure Carter fits under the cap.

    They are in much better shape than everyone claims.
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    Back from Mexico! I\'m not sure where the numbers are coming from posted here, but I have 15 players under contract for $47m. (This includes Giroux and Parent)
    Everything I\'ve read about the cap, (my fantasy league uses the NHL cap) says the cap will be at least $56m, probably $56.5 is my guess.
    I think Knuble and Kapenen are gone, one way or another. Prospal and Modry will not be resigned. I don\'t think Hatcher will be bought out. He may retire, but $3.5m isn\'t a bad salary for a mean ass warrior like Hatcher in today\'s market. If he\'s willing, I\'d keep him in orange black. That brings the number to $43m. Rathje\'s house is up for sale and will retire to San Jose, insurance details are being worked out.
    Predictions:
    I think Carter stays for no more that $5.25m; otherwise they take the 3 first round picks. Umberger stays for $3+m (hopefully less). Jones stays for $1.2m. That brings them close to $54m. If the Flyers manage to snare Campbell, then Hatcher. Umberger, or Carter will have to be sacrificed. I personally, let Carter go for the 3 first round draft picks. I have my doubts about Carter and I\'d rather bolster the D with Campbell. The Cap is certainly tight, but Holmgren has some wiggle room. Flyers have plenty of young prospects coming up over the next several years; I don\'t think Carter can squeeze the Flyers into a bad contract.

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    Disco Stu wrote:
    Yeah, but just wait until next year. The Flyers are so cash strapped, it\'s funny. They have $55 million committed to 15 players, and that doesn\'t even include Carter, Umberger, Jones, Modry or Prospal. Rathje will most likely retire freeing up $3.5 million but that sure don\'t leave them enough to make offers to either Carter or Umberger. Flyers will still need to add the salaries of another 6 - 8 guys to fill out their roster yet somehow manage to get under the cap.

    Good luck Philly and hope you enjoyed your one year run.
    Ha, wow. You have no idea on the financial status of the Flyers.

    Rathje is already off the cap with his LTIR. With the cap rising by about five million, the Flyers will have 5.1 million PLUS Smith/Prospal leaving, PLUS Hatcher\'s 3.5 possibly coming off the cap due to retirement.

    Carter takes 5 million, he\'s signable. Jones takes 1.5 million, he\'s signable. Hell, if Hatcher retires we can even sign Liles.

    Nice try, no cigar.
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    It will take a trade. Carter will need at least $6 million and Umberger probably close to $4 milliion. Lupul will need to be traded. Hatcher will for sure be off the cap one way or another. The Flyers are not on a one-year run - Giroux, Potulny, Nodl and JVR will replenish any players they lose because of the cap. The Flyers did everything right here (although that Richards signing was dumb...you may not see it now, but ask me in five years)
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    Hey Dobbs,

    Do you think they\'ll look at moving Carter and/or Umberger, as well?

    Thanks,
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    I don\'t think Lupul gets traded. From listening to Holmgren recently, Umberger looks like he may be the odd man out unless he keeps his price down. Carter\'s not going anywhere, he will be signed prior to July. Not sure why Richards $5.75m is going to look bad in 5 years...it will actually look better. I read a very interesting and detailed article about the cap about a month ago. The writer pointed out that there is no provision against the cap continuously going up $4m to $5m each year. He predicted the salary cap would easily be into the $70m range before the increases start to taper off. A $5.75m contract against a $70m salary for your team captain and potentially best player, looks pretty good to me. The $5.75 hurts more this year and next, while the cap is still in the $50m\'s. I compare it to Hatcher\'s $3.5m when the cap was only $36m. That was bad, but now, that $3.5 doesn\'t look that bad with a cap going up to $56m.

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    Exactly, if the cap continues to rise, Richards signing (and the Briere/Hartnell/Timonen signings) will look great. Hatcher is definitely gone, whether to retirement, waivers, etc. Knuble may be traded as Giroux will be entering the picture. In any event, I don\'t see Carter signing for 6 million. If that\'s the case, I think Holmgren would walk away. Umberger won\'t get 4 million.
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    Look for Carter to sign a five year, 25 million deal.
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    That I could see. And I would like that.
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