Rocky Horror Roto Show 2013/14

[Shoeless]

Nice write up, Teemu and good drafting as well. I quite like your team.

[Pengwin7]

Well, I have obviously pissed off the Fantasy Hockey Gods.

Friday: Tomas Vokoun (my 11th round pick), out indefinitely with blood clot.
Saturday: Sam Gagner (my 8th round pick), out indefinitely with broken jaw.

Guh-reat...

It will also be interesting to see how Pengwin7's goalie strategy works and props for him trying a risky strategy like that in rotisserie league. I am not so sure if it will pay off though as reaching max GPs will be quite hard considering the amount of inevitable goalie conflicts with 7 goalies.... losing Vokoun was a big hit as Vokoun pretty much was the most important G in the team considering the strategy(would probably have posted comparable numbers to Rask/Lundqvist on per game basis).

Well... IF I actually have goalie conflicts.
Just because I have 7 goalies seems like I'd have conflicts.
[And now it's 6 goalies... with Vokoun's 25 games now out... I'll be thankful to get to 115 games.]

But realistically, my back-ups might play 20games (1/4), that's 25%.
So what are the odds that 3 back-ups play on the same night?
1) All 6 teams would need to play,
2) 3 Back-Ups would need to be playing. (And, the average playing on an "all-six teams" night would still only be 6 x .25 = 1.5 goalies on average, starting)
Pretty low likelihood, won't happen a lot.

The most common days for back-up goalies to play are on back-to-backs (Friday/Saturday) or on standard rest days for #1 goalies (Sunday).
In other words... I'll be LUCKY to get a conflict. LOL

[temek]

Well... IF I actually have goalie conflicts.
Just because I have 7 goalies seems like I'd have conflicts.
[And now it's 6 goalies... with Vokoun's 25 games now out... I'll be thankful to get to 115 games.]

But realistically, my back-ups might play 20games (1/4), that's 25%.
So what are the odds that 3 back-ups play on the same night?
1) All 6 teams would need to play,
2) 3 Back-Ups would need to be playing. (And, the average playing on an "all-six teams" night would still only be 6 x .25 = 1.5 goalies on average, starting)
Pretty low likelihood, won't happen a lot.

The most common days for back-up goalies to play are on back-to-backs (Friday/Saturday) or on standard rest days for #1 goalies (Sunday).
In other words... I'll be LUCKY to get a conflict. LOL

I might have overestimated the amount of conflicts and I was interested in how many you can realistically expect so decided to do some investigating using last season's games as an estimate for the amount of conflicts.

Last season's your current goalies played 119 GP total(Elliott 24, Reimer 33, Vokoun 20, Mason 20, Khabibulin 20, Johnson 4, Biron 6) which ~203 GP in full 82 game season. There were 15 days when 3 or more goalies played on the same day so with these goalies you would have lost 15/119 ~12,6% of the GP total to the conflicts. Reimer was pretty much the starter though and Mason and even Elliott played higher percentage of games than you'd expect from any of your goalies this season. Last season was also more condensed schedule wise than usual so that would have caused more conflicts as well. So I'd say 12,6% would be a significant overestimate and I'd say you would have lost somewhere between 5-10% of goalies GP total to conflicts. So probably about 10 GP out of the estimated 140 GP with 7 goalies which would be roughly 1 conflict every two weeks or so. Without Vokoun you'll probably lose even less games so I'd say about 5 GP or so lost to conflicts which isn't that much.

[Shoeless]

I might have overestimated the amount of conflicts and I was interested in how many you can realistically expect so decided to do some investigating using last season's games as an estimate for the amount of conflicts.

Last season's your current goalies played 119 GP total(Elliott 24, Reimer 33, Vokoun 20, Mason 20, Khabibulin 20, Johnson 4, Biron 6) which ~203 GP in full 82 game season. There were 15 days when 3 or more goalies played on the same day so with these goalies you would have lost 15/119 ~12,6% of the GP total to the conflicts. Reimer was pretty much the starter though and Mason and even Elliott played higher percentage of games than you'd expect from any of your goalies this season. Last season was also more condensed schedule wise than usual so that would have caused more conflicts as well. So I'd say 12,6% would be a significant overestimate and I'd say you would have lost somewhere between 5-10% of goalies GP total to conflicts. So probably about 10 GP out of the estimated 140 GP with 7 goalies which would be roughly 1 conflict every two weeks or so. Without Vokoun you'll probably lose even less games so I'd say about 5 GP or so lost to conflicts which isn't that much.

Without a doubt the most beautiful piece of bafflegab I have read in years. Huh, what did he just say?

[horrorfan]

Hey Rick, I don't suppose you were planning on doing your usual FHG standings projections based on the draft? It's always interesting to see as a snapshot.

[Shoeless]

Hey Rick, I don't suppose you were planning on doing your usual FHG standings projections based on the draft? It's always interesting to see as a snapshot.

Well I wasn't because it's a tonne of work, but now that you ask so nicely, I will see if I have the time. It is a fun thing to do.

[horrorfan]

Well I wasn't because it's a tonne of work, but now that you ask so nicely, I will see if I have the time. It is a fun thing to do.

If it takes too much time that's ok. Especially if it tells me my team sucks.

If you do have the time, thanks.

[Chili con Carne]

Is there anything we can do to help (e.g. put our team in an excel sheet that you can cut/paste)?

[Shoeless]

Is there anything we can do to help (e.g. put our team in an excel sheet that you can cut/paste)?

Unfortunately the method I use doesn't allow for cut and paste - it's all single entry of players to try and use the more precise tool.

I can do it - just grunt work. Thanks for the offer Chili Con

[Shoeless]

It is preseason but I am a little excited about how my goaltending showed this weekend - Varly stops 37 of 38, Schneider with the SHO and my boy Dubinsky chucks in 4 points in his game. Alright!

[horrorfan]

It is preseason but I am a little excited about how my goaltending showed this weekend - Varly stops 37 of 38, Schneider with the SHO and my boy Dubinsky chucks in 4 points in his game. Alright!

Enjoy your preseason success!

I bet Varly will have a good season now after the turd he dropped for me last year.

[Shoeless]

Well back by popular demand is the forecasted performance for all these scary teams.

The forecast was prepared using Dobber's 2013-14 projections and processed through Fantasy Hockey Geek's Team Evaluator to get projected totals for each category for each team. Then a simple spreadsheet process to determine the roto score for each category and totaled for each team.

Disclaimer: Because this is a max games league it is hard to project bench utilization for skaters and goalies - I tinkered as best I could for each team depending on the make-up their bench - far from perfect but an attempt.

This is just for fun - there are so many tight cats where folks could move 3 or 4 positions with a handful of units extra - so go out and get them.

97.5 is the mean score

Team - GM - Score

A.Niityville Horrors - Shoeless - 125

Ogie Ogre-thorpe - Chili Con Carne - 117.5

I Smid on your Grave - Horrorfan - 112

Recchident Evil - Temek - 107.5

Silence of the Stams - Dyzfuntioned - 107.5

Skinner & Silent Bob - Smack - 106

Phaneufenstein - Kluu - 105

Nightmare on Helm Street - Nehithaw - 102.5

Nosferatuuka - Fast Tony Deniro - 96.5

Drag Me to Hellberg - NoWayOut - 91.5

House of 1000 Corvos - 4T2 - 89.5

Dead & Fleuried - dooley89 - 73.5

Army of Subbans - Jammin1390 - 69

Pavelnormal Activity - Pengwin7 - 62 <Note: Injuries to Vokoun and Gagner not considered in this calculation

[Shoeless]

I am wondering how you fix a bad +/-, ugh!

[horrorfan]

Thanks Shoeless. I'm guessing that my main strengths are peripherals and goaltending, with a decent but not overly strong offense.

[dooley89]

shit!!!!!!