Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 1 2
Results 16 to 18 of 18

Thread: Trying to acquire Quick... Help ASAP

  1. #16
    blayze's Avatar
    blayze is online now
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Posts
    12,303
    Location
    Toronto
    Rep Power
    50

    Dobber Sports Samurai

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    If it's ROTO, I'd take Quick for Hiller/Varlamov.
    If it's H2H, I'd prefer keeping Hller/Varlamov.

    With SV being a category, quantity is important.
    With MORE goalies, you can always choose to sit/start a guy on the last day (Sunday) of a H2H league. Strategically, that a really important thing. I probably finish a few places higher in each league I play simply by understanding strategy. (Last year, I finished top HALF in all eight of my leagues).

    Roto or H2H?

    Add that to your SIG: Keeper League, ___, 16 teams...
    Quantity is more important when saves count, but in this particular format, he also has both ratio categories to contend with (GAA/Save %) so you may very well end up blowing two categories just to win one.

    In formats with both GAA and SV% I always go with quality > quantity, because those categories usually move together (ie: win one and you'll win them both).

    If he had no other decent goalies to rely on then it may be a diff story, but Lehtonen is as good a #2 as it gets and will provide more than ample quantity.

  2. #17
    Location
    Prairies
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Supreme Grand Master

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by blayze View Post
    Quantity is more important when saves count, but in this particular format, he also has both ratio categories to contend with (GAA/Save %) so you may very well end up blowing two categories just to win one.

    In formats with both GAA and SV% I always go with quality > quantity, because those categories usually move together (ie: win one and you'll win them both).

    If he had no other decent goalies to rely on then it may be a diff story, but Lehtonen is as good a #2 as it gets and will provide more than ample quantity.

    If memory serves... you say you mostly have done points-leagues.
    So I'm not certain you have a lot of experience here.

    Quantity stats are the most reliable stats to win in fantasy hockey.
    horrorfan and I do several leagues together and both of us always dominate High-Quantity Categories such as PIM, Hits, Blocks, FOW -and- SV... anything that is steady week-to-week.

    SAVES is a steady category.
    If you have a lot of starting goalies, you'll win SAVES consistently.
    One category, in the books.
    In H2H, you have to do this whenever you can.
    Locking up a cat in H2H is key to winning.

    However, GAA/SV% fluctuate wildly week-to-week. There is no guarantee that Jon Quick will win those every week.
    In fact, I'd bet that if you put Quick up against, say, Pavelec... I'd say Quick will only win 2 out of every 3 weeks. 66%.
    Pavelec+ is still taking SV. So Team Pavelec used a late draft pick and still has 1/3 categories. And they also have an ELITE forward on their roster, in the spot where Quick was drafted!

    In H2H, a team can NOT get hung up on GAA/SV% because of the weekly match-up format. 2 or 3 games from a goalie. That's the period. Then everything is re-set.

    I'm taking Pavelec vs. FLA/CGY/MIN over Quick vs. DET/OTT/BOS.


    H2H is about winning more than half the categories.
    The surest way to establish a good H2H team is to first dominate any "high-quantity" statistics. And this includes SV.

    Overall point being this, in a daily league:
    i) Hiller+Varlamov will beat Quick in SV every week, every matchup.
    AND
    ii) The GM might be able to pick & choose Hiller/Varlamov matches for GAA/SV% to win those.
    If a GM gets three good starts from Hiller/Varly, he can also choose to bench those guys to ensure GAA/SV%.

    Win those high-quantity categories.
    Extra goalies allow for options on strategy.
    Having limited goalies means you have to roll them out every game... if they get shelled once, that team may have lost every goalie cat: GAA/SV%... and of course, SV.
    Last edited by Pengwin7; July 30, 2013 at 1:22 PM.

  3. #18
    blayze's Avatar
    blayze is online now
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Posts
    12,303
    Location
    Toronto
    Rep Power
    50

    Dobber Sports Samurai

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    If memory serves... you say you mostly have done points-leagues.
    So I'm not certain you have a lot of experience here.

    Quantity stats are the most reliable stats to win in fantasy hockey.
    horrorfan and I do several leagues together and both of us always dominate High-Quantity Categories such as PIM, Hits, Blocks, FOW -and- SV... anything that is steady week-to-week.

    SAVES is a steady category.
    If you have a lot of starting goalies, you'll win SAVES consistently.
    One category, in the books.
    In H2H, you have to do this whenever you can.
    Locking up a cat in H2H is key to winning.

    However, GAA/SV% fluctuate wildly week-to-week. There is no guarantee that Jon Quick will win those every week.
    In fact, I'd bet that if you put Quick up against, say, Pavelec... I'd say Quick will only win 2 out of every 3 weeks. 66%.
    Pavelec+ is still taking SV. So Team Pavelec used a late draft pick and still has 1/3 categories. And they also have an ELITE forward on their roster, in the spot where Quick was drafted!

    In H2H, a team can NOT get hung up on GAA/SV% because of the weekly match-up format. 2 or 3 games from a goalie. That's the period. Then everything is re-set.

    I'm taking Pavelec vs. FLA/CGY/MIN over Quick vs. DET/OTT/BOS.


    H2H is about winning more than half the categories.
    The surest way to establish a good H2H team is to first dominate any "high-quantity" statistics. And this includes SV.

    Overall point being this, in a daily league:
    i) Hiller+Varlamov will beat Quick in SV every week, every matchup.
    AND
    ii) The GM might be able to pick & choose Hiller/Varlamov matches for GAA/SV% to win those.
    If a GM gets three good starts from Hiller/Varly, he can also choose to bench those guys to ensure GAA/SV%.

    Win those high-quantity categories.
    Extra goalies allow for options on strategy.
    Having limited goalies means you have to roll them out every game... if they get shelled once, that team may have lost every goalie cat: GAA/SV%... and of course, SV.
    Over the past couple of years I've only done points leagues but I have done my fair share of all kinds of leagues over the past decade, not like I just started yesterday. Anyway, if you want to run background checks on people's fantasy pool scoring format history before you personally qualify them to give advice then knock yourself out, but I think that's getting way too personal and irrelevant to the discussion at hand.

    Your response is a general one, but my answer is specific to the OP's format. I'm not talking generalities here, so let's not get off topic with theoretical discussions that aren't really relevant to the thread.

    His goalie scoring cats are as follows: W-L-SVS-SV%-GAA-SO

    Based on these specific categories, I will take quality of quantity ANY day.
    -Quality will get you more wins (net) and it will also protect you on GAA and Save %.
    -Quantity will get you more Saves, but it in this format wins are OFFSET by losses.

    So basically in this scenario:
    -Quality gives you the edge in: W, Save %, GAA, SO.
    -Quantity gives you the edge in: Saves.

    Which would you choose?

    You talk about week to week fluctuations with ratios, but that's irrelevant. You can't control that - wins will fluctuate too. What you do KNOW is that quality goalies, over the course of a full season, will outperform shitty goalies in the two ratio categories more weeks than not. That means, you will be locking up TWO of the six categories on MOST weeks. Even if it's only 66% of the time (not sure where you even got that number) - that's SIGNIFICANT. It's the law of mean reversion over a large sample size... that's why we start our studs in goal.

    Let's not again forget the context of the OP's team here. It's not a direct quality vs. quantity trade-off to begin with - we're not comparing Khudobin to Hiller here... we're talking about Jon ****ing Quick. Quick is a workhorse on a solid team who will play 70+ games... especially now with Bernier gone. On top of that he has Lehtonen who will play 60+ games. So your notion that holding Hiller/Varly over Quick for quantity goes out the window because between Quick/Lehtonen he is ALREADY more than adequately covered in the quantity categories.

    You're going through analysis paralysis for no reason here. Given the scoring categories and the OP's depth at goal, Hiller/Varly for Quick is a no brainer.
    Last edited by blayze; July 30, 2013 at 2:26 PM.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •