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Thread: Why 5v5 Sv% is KING ...

  1. #16
    mounD's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Long post... and good summary of statistics.
    But now, for Part II:

    1. It appears (from your statistics) that there should be NO reason to worry about Jaroslav Halak's performance in this coming season: 2013-2014.
    His .9281 5-on-5 SV% is phenomenal.
    Based on the information you collected, Halak should be the absolute bonafide #1 goalie for St.Louis this year and perform suchly.

    2. It appears (from your statistics) that Brian Elliott is not even CLOSE to being as good a goaltender as Jaroslav Halak.
    We should assume that Elliott has no chance to win the #1 goaltending job in St.Louis.


    Are these your opinions on the St.Louis goaltending situation???
    Well, statistics don't exist inside a bubble. You and I both know there are their factors to consider. STL has a very difficult goaltending situation to predict for a number of reasons: Elliott has had a couple "good" seasons in a row and a new trend could be emerging, Jake Allen's supposed "emergence" muddying the waters, and OF COURSE Halak has injury concerns that I'm sure the STL front office is more than aware of -- not to mention the relative cap hits of each player.

    If we merely look at the numbers, it would appear that Halak is the most consistently good, clear-cut #1 option and in a situation where all outside factors are equal, Halak would be BY FAR the best option to assume the starting job for good in STL; however, since we all know very well that a variety of factors go into making these decisions -- especially in the real-world of NHL team management -- the Blues could decide to go a number of different routes with their goaltending.

    If I had to make a decision one way or another, I would go with Jaroslav Halak ten times out of ten, with either Allen/Elliott as the backup. I think the Blues should trade whichever goaltender (Elliot/Allen) garners more trade value in return (likely Allen due to age) and ride Halak as far as he can take them.

    Cheers.
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    C: Backstrom, Eichel, Kadri, Fisher, Bennett
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    mounD,
    What you are presenting is a repackaged and more specified argument of TALENT vs. FANTASY VALUE.
    5v5 SV% may be a great indicator of a goalie's TALENT level.
    But as we all know, often the most talented player, at any position, does not have the most FANTASY VALUE in fantasy hockey because of the variables in the team on which that player plays.
    Real life talent does NOT equal fantasy value.

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Domi's Homey View Post
    mounD,
    What you are presenting is a repackaged and more specified argument of TALENT vs. FANTASY VALUE.
    5v5 SV% may be a great indicator of a goalie's TALENT level.
    But as we all know, often the most talented player, at any position, does not have the most FANTASY VALUE in fantasy hockey because of the variables in the team on which that player plays.
    Real life talent does NOT equal fantasy value.
    Well, you're partially correct about my argument. Really, it's that "real life talent" + teams who perform well in situations where goalie talent doesn't predicate success = fantasy value.

    For example, theoretically a goaltender with a top-5 5v5 Sv% who plays for a team with a PK% rate in the top third of the leagr should be one of the best fantasy goalies.
    Pittsburgh Penguins -- NHLFL
    12 Team Yahoo H2H Salary cap Dynasty
    3C, 3LW, 3RW, 3F, 6D, 2G, 5BN (IR) + 25 AHL + 10 juniors (60 total)
    G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SOG, Hits, Blk, FW // W, GAA, Saves, Sv%, SHO

    C: Backstrom, Eichel, Kadri, Fisher, Bennett
    LW: Hall, Zetterberg, Galchenyuk, Huberdeau
    RW: Stamkos, Kesler, Little, Lindholm, Semin
    D: Weber, Hedman, OEL, Jones, Pouliot, Stone, Bieksa
    G: Talbot, Allen, Mrazek, Gibson

    Bench: Draisaitl, Barzal, Rantanen, Zacha, Konecny, Horvat, Goldobin, Kapanen, Ritchie // Nurse, Ristolainen, Theodore, Nesterov, Vainio

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    You know what? Even 5v5 SV% is reflective of team play, eh?
    Some teams play a more defensive style, or keep shots to the perimeter, or allow the goalie to see the point shots rather than block them.
    Some teams give up more odd man rushes than others.
    Some teams encourage their defensemen to pinch in the offensive zone.
    Some teams don't even forecheck.
    Coaching style is a major factor.
    PK% is team oriented as well. Whatever assistant coach is running the PK determines the style of play ... challenge the puck holder, or play a passive box formation.
    And PK% won't tell the whole story if you've got a team like the Leafs who had almost twice as many PIMs as a team like the Blackhawks last season. In theory, the Hawks' PK% could have been significantly worse than the Leafs last year and still could have given up far fewer goals against.
    In my opinion, there's no formula for FANTASY VALUE.
    All one can do is make a prediction on how well a certain player will perform within the context of the team and coaching staff he plays for.
    For example, I predict that Lundqvist's numbers will drop a little because the team has a new head coach and will inevitably play a style different than the defensive minded play of Tortorella. Likewise, I expect Luongo's numbers to improve a little since Tortorella's defensive style will benefit the amount of shots and goals against, irregardless of past 5v5 SV% and Vancouver's past PK%.

  5. #20
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    Penguin's point still stands ... how can we explain the fluctuations in Halak and Elliott's 5v5 SV%?
    The way I see it: if Lundqvist got traded to Pittsburgh, I would expect his 5v5 SV% to get worse.
    I don't know where to find 5v5 SV% stats, but I'm curious if you guys could compare Bryzgalov's 5v5 SV% from his time in Phoenix to his days in Philly? I suspect that would prove the point that even 5v5 SV% is reflective of the team context in which a goaltender plays.

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