Smith, Miller or Hiller?

[Epic]

First time poster,

I have a choice between Mike Smith, Ryan Miller Jonas Hiller for my Roto H2H keeper league. I can protect one of them with my other goalie being Luongo. GS, W, S%, GAA are the categories.

Any advice?

[als_revenge]

First time poster,

I have a choice between Mike Smith, Ryan Miller Jonas Hiller for my Roto H2H keeper league. I can protect one of them with my other goalie being Luongo. GS, W, S%, GAA are the categories.

Any advice?

I'd probably go Smith. Miller is on a train wreck of a team, and there is no guarantee he'll be traded at this point, perhaps not until the deadline. Hiller's prevouis health issues concern me, as does the fact that they signed Fasth to a two year extention, and Hiller on his last year. All-in-all, I think Mike Smith is in the best postion to collect you fantasy points next year.

If you are thinking about more than one year, and really want to roll the dice, you could take Miller and hope he ends up somewhere like St Louis.

But I think the safest route is Mike Smith.

[Atomic Wedgy]

Its probably a choice b/w Miller and Smith. Each has their pros and cons. Miller is a proven work horse. he has shown that he can start 65+ games. His sv% is usually very good. Even last year when most folks think he was having a bad year, it was .915. he also played 40 out of 48 games, which works out to almost 70 over a full season. He might not get you the wins, but he'll get you 30+. I would choose Miller almost every time.

[mounD]

It's Mike Smith, and I don't think it's very close. Eliminate Hiller right off the bat, because he will more than likely be sharing the nets next season w/ Fasth.

Between Smith and Miller, lets take a look at some numbers:

2010-13 (3year avg) 5v5 Sv% ( > 5000 minutes played):

Mike Smith -- .9279 (7th overall)
Ryan Miller -- .9258 (12th overall)

Granted, it's not exactly a landslide in Mike Smith's favor, but the numbers indicate that in terms of 5v5 SV% Smith is the preferable option over a large sample size. And while .0021 sv% points may not seem like a whole lot, it can mean the difference between those 2-3 clutch saves over the course of a season -- which may translate to an additional W or two.

Between BUF and PHX, it's pretty easy to see which team is better, or at least which team is better for goaltenders. Under the tutelage of Sean Burke and the defensive first (second, and third) system if Dave Tippett, it's clear goalies really thrive in the Desert (Bryzgalov much?). We saw this in 2011-12 when Smith posted ELITE fantasy numbers and was a top-3 goaltending option in standard leagues. Last season, in a down year while struggling with injuries, Mike Smith still posted a .9243 5v5 Sv% (Miller .9244 almost identical). So, essentially a bad year for Smith is about = to an average year for Miller. This leads me to be incredibly bullish on Mike Smith when given these options.

There is ELITE fantasy upside, his team is a far superior situation for fantasy goalies, and his 3-year averages in 5v5 sv% are top10 in the NHL (7th). All signs point to Mike Smith as your guy here.

Cheers.

[TheZamboniGuy]

It's Mike Smith, and I don't think it's very close. Eliminate Hiller right off the bat, because he will more than likely be sharing the nets next season w/ Fasth.

Between Smith and Miller, lets take a look at some numbers:

2010-13 (3year avg) 5v5 Sv% ( > 5000 minutes played):

Mike Smith -- .9279 (7th overall)
Ryan Miller -- .9258 (12th overall)

Granted, it's not exactly a landslide in Mike Smith's favor, but the numbers indicate that in terms of 5v5 SV% Smith is the preferable option over a large sample size. And while .0021 sv% points may not seem like a whole lot, it can mean the difference between those 2-3 clutch saves over the course of a season -- which may translate to an additional W or two.

Between BUF and PHX, it's pretty easy to see which team is better, or at least which team is better for goaltenders. Under the tutelage of Sean Burke and the defensive first (second, and third) system if Dave Tippett, it's clear goalies really thrive in the Desert (Bryzgalov much?). We saw this in 2011-12 when Smith posted ELITE fantasy numbers and was a top-3 goaltending option in standard leagues. Last season, in a down year while struggling with injuries, Mike Smith still posted a .9243 5v5 Sv% (Miller .9244 almost identical). So, essentially a bad year for Smith is about = to an average year for Miller. This leads me to be incredibly bullish on Mike Smith when given these options.

There is ELITE fantasy upside, his team is a far superior situation for fantasy goalies, and his 3-year averages in 5v5 sv% are top10 in the NHL (7th). All signs point to Mike Smith as your guy here.

Cheers.

excellent rep MounD,

I go with Mike Smith !

[ross10019]

Agree Smith. Caveat is that if Hiller is traded (which very well could happen, likely at the trade deadline, given that they have Fasth and then Gibson waiting in the wings), his value will raise, and if the trade is to a contender, it will skyrocket. the same applies to Miller.

Problem is you don't know that now, and so you have to go with what you know, and I agree under those circumstances Smith's the guy.

[Pengwin7]

Hiller, for me.

1) I think people forget how good Hiller was down-the-stretch last year. He was miserable to start the year, then got injured and Fasth was great. But...

2) The Ducks still went back to Hiller. And he was DY-NO-MITE when he came back:
.926 SV% in March
.931 SV% in April

3) If this is a daily league... there is no better team to own players on than Anaheim. For the 3rd year in a row, Anaheim has the best "off-night" schedule. They play a lot of games on strange nights like Monday & Wednesday. In daily leagues, this makes Hiller a great option because you can roster 2 other goalies for 3 total - and have very few conflicts when starting 2G.


Mike Smith has had ONE great season. ONE.
Phoenix is not a good team.

I think people think that Fasth is going to get a lot of starts.
But Hiller is the guy on that team and I think he'll still get the Lion's share.


Unlike others... I really do NOT have faith in Mike Smith putting up good numbers.

BTW - WELCOME TO THE FORUMS!!!

[arctic_rogue]

Hiller, for me.

1) I think people forget how good Hiller was down-the-stretch last year. He was miserable to start the year, then got injured and Fasth was great. But...

2) The Ducks still went back to Hiller. And he was DY-NO-MITE when he came back:
.926 SV% in March
.931 SV% in April

3) If this is a daily league... there is no better team to own players on than Anaheim. For the 3rd year in a row, Anaheim has the best "off-night" schedule. They play a lot of games on strange nights like Monday & Wednesday. In daily leagues, this makes Hiller a great option because you can roster 2 other goalies for 3 total - and have very few conflicts when starting 2G.


Mike Smith has had ONE great season. ONE.
Phoenix is not a good team.

I think people think that Fasth is going to get a lot of starts.
But Hiller is the guy on that team and I think he'll still get the Lion's share.


Unlike others... I really do NOT have faith in Mike Smith putting up good numbers.

BTW - WELCOME TO THE FORUMS!!!

I agree totally.

I believe Hiller's health issues are overstated, and even if he only starts 40-45 games, he'll still give very very good peripherals. Say Smith or Miller starts 65-70 games. In most leagues I'd take 2/3s the number of starts with Hiller.

[ross10019]

Hiller, for me.

1) I think people forget how good Hiller was down-the-stretch last year. He was miserable to start the year, then got injured and Fasth was great. But...

2) The Ducks still went back to Hiller. And he was DY-NO-MITE when he came back:
.926 SV% in March
.931 SV% in April

3) If this is a daily league... there is no better team to own players on than Anaheim. For the 3rd year in a row, Anaheim has the best "off-night" schedule. They play a lot of games on strange nights like Monday & Wednesday. In daily leagues, this makes Hiller a great option because you can roster 2 other goalies for 3 total - and have very few conflicts when starting 2G.


Mike Smith has had ONE great season. ONE.
Phoenix is not a good team.

I think people think that Fasth is going to get a lot of starts.
But Hiller is the guy on that team and I think he'll still get the Lion's share.


Unlike others... I really do NOT have faith in Mike Smith putting up good numbers.

BTW - WELCOME TO THE FORUMS!!!

Well this is a great post, and you will see in other threads how much I've touted Hiller (especially those ridiculous early season threads where everyhoen was declaring Fasth no1 and Hiller a useless backup after like 5 games).

Let's not forget he was the go-to guy in the playoffs and was a pretty solid performance marred solely by the last two games, and it was far from Hiller who was responsible for falling to the Wings.

But in this case, with Smith the clear starter in Phoenix and signed for 5 years, and with the defensive system in Phoenix, I'm comfortable advising to pick Smith over Hiller.

[Epic]

Wow, fantastic info guys.

I've been really torn on this issue for some time and I have to say I'm going to go with Smith based on your feedback. for a keeper league there is too much uncertainty surrounding Hiller and Miller. It would be amazing if Miller got moved to the Blues however at the same time, what if he winds up on the Flames? I'd curl up into a corner and cry for 3 weeks.

[mounD]

Hiller, for me.

1) I think people forget how good Hiller was down-the-stretch last year. He was miserable to start the year, then got injured and Fasth was great. But...

2) The Ducks still went back to Hiller. And he was DY-NO-MITE when he came back:
.926 SV% in March
.931 SV% in April

3) If this is a daily league... there is no better team to own players on than Anaheim. For the 3rd year in a row, Anaheim has the best "off-night" schedule. They play a lot of games on strange nights like Monday & Wednesday. In daily leagues, this makes Hiller a great option because you can roster 2 other goalies for 3 total - and have very few conflicts when starting 2G.


Mike Smith has had ONE great season. ONE.
Phoenix is not a good team.

I think people think that Fasth is going to get a lot of starts.
But Hiller is the guy on that team and I think he'll still get the Lion's share.


Unlike others... I really do NOT have faith in Mike Smith putting up good numbers.

BTW - WELCOME TO THE FORUMS!!!

I understand the allure of Hiller/Miller here, and I agree that Hiller has great upside, but you aren't going to win me over by posting single-month Sv% stats that can (and did) wildly fluctuate from month to month. Hiller has a lot of upside, but there are also a lot of question marks (starting job) despite his advantage in "same night" situations.

But to say that Mike Smith has only had one good season is a verifiable falsehood. During his two "full" seasons in TB (2008-10) he posted a .921 5v5 Sv%, including a .931 in 2008-09. http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rati...tA&sortdir=ASC
Those are pretty admirable numbers, an on a completely awful Tampa team during that time I would call those pretty solid seasons (especially 08-09 when his 5b5 Sv% ranked 6th among goalies who played > 1500 minutes), all things considered.

Now, we know that Mike Smith also possesses ELITE starter upside, as was shown in 2011-12 when he posted a top-3 fantasy season (and top-3 5v5 Sv% // > 1500min) in Phoenix.http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rati...tA&sortdir=ASC But let's not just look at one Phx season, lets go back to the 3-year averages (2010-13) that I posted before.

Mike Smith has a higher 5v5 Sv% than both Miller and Hiller over that timespan.

Smith: .9279 (7th)
Miller: .9258 (12th)
Hiller: .9244 (20th)

All are pretty close, within .0035 sv% points, but there is no denying that Mike Smith has greater numbers over the pat 3-years (a rather large sample size). Take into account the fact that Smith's job is secure, he has shown a higher fantasy ceiling than the other two, and that there are serious question marks surrounding the other two goalies, Smith appears to be the most recently consistent and best option here.

Cheers.

[Pengwin7]

^I really don't know why you continue to point to 5-on-5sv%.

What about the powerplay?
There are a lot of quality shots that are taken on the powerplay and consistently pointing to Smith's 5-on-5 sv% only shows that you want to focus on a "partial" portion of Smith's statistics.
To my knowledge, there are no fantasy hockey pools that ONLY count 5-on-5 stats and not powerplay stats... so why do you keep going back to that argument?

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Pengwin, I think it's because it's been shown that SH and PP SV% tend to regress to the league mean, whereas 5v5 SV% is a consistent predictor of overall performance. I forget where I've read it, but basically the analysis showed that a goalie's 5v5 holds relatively steady year-to-year but you see wide swings in the others, and the others usually explain the variation in overall SV%. So, if the rest is really volatile, you look at what has been demonstrated to be more consistent I guess.

[mounD]

Pengwin, I think it's because it's been shown that SH and PP SV% tend to regress to the league mean, whereas 5v5 SV% is a consistent predictor of overall performance. I forget where I've read it, but basically the analysis showed that a goalie's 5v5 holds relatively steady year-to-year but you see wide swings in the others, and the others usually explain the variation in overall SV%. So, if the rest is really volatile, you look at what has been demonstrated to be more consistent I guess.

Thanks FHG, I should've pointed that out in my analysis. Basically I only include 5v5 numbers because EV Sv% is the most accurate predictor of a goalie's performance / contributions as well as being the best predictor of future performance.

Cheers.

[Pengwin7]

Phoenix's Defensive System
*People love to talk about Phoenix's defensive system, which I love. If you are going to call something a "falsehood"... how about Phoenix's "defensive system".
The Coyotes ranked 21st in the NHL (10th worst) in shots against per game in 2012-2013.
The Coyotes ranked 28th in the NHL (3rd worst) in shots against per game in 2011-2012.
The Coyotes ranked 28th in the NHL (3rd worst) in shots against per game in 2010-2011.

So... and I hate having to reiterate this... Phoenix is not a good defensive team. They are bad. They allow a LOT of shots against. Allowing a ton of shots against makes a team BAD defensively. Period. Since GAA is a function of shots against x SV%... the shots against (for a team) have to be taken with serious consideration when talking fantasy statistics for goalies. Isolating SV% and ignoring team SOGA also ignores the GAA that a goalie will put forth. (sim. Carolina & Cam Ward).

It is a complete myth that Phoenix is a good defensive team. It's a myth propogated by other people regurgitating that information. If a team is giving up a ton of shots against... among the worst in the league... they are NOT a good defensive team.

As for 5-on-5 SV%... I like it... but I don't see why anybody should ignore a more all-encompassing statistic like SV%. Powerplays are a part of every game and a goalie's performance in that situation is important as well. I bet if you looked at the St.Louis Blues goalies from this past year and two years ago you'd find some wildly fluctuating SV%, including 5-on-5.

In summary:
This is fantasy hockey!!! The TEAM aspect plays a big role in selecting a goalie. The Coyotes give up a lot of shots and don't have enough firepower to win a lot of games.
Even if Smith's SV% is slightly better than Miller & Hiller... Phoenix's high quantity of shots against and lack of offensive strength hurts other categories for Smith (GAA & Wins).
Anaheim is a team that looked very good last year. Their shots on goal against per game was in the top 10 of the league.

I think Smith's one fantastic year clouds some judgment.
He's now working off a big contract and he needs to start proving his value.
He didn't perform so well last year in his contract-year. Fortunately, he still got the big dollars.
Pressure. You saw it... you'll see it. It's gonna eat Mike Smith up!