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Thread: Why the Sedins aren't elite fantasy options

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    Default Why the Sedins aren't elite fantasy options

    Itís a phrase used in fantasy hockey quite often, especially in points-only pools: The Sedin twins are elite players.

    Donít take my word for it. You can see it in this thread. And this one. And Dobberís top 300 rankings for points-only has Henrik at ninth overall and Daniel at 14.

    However, this statement is inherently false.

    The Sedins are good players who have been pretty consistent over much of their career, but they are far from elite.

    If youíre one of those general managers hoping they can still get a 90-point season out of them, youíre in for quite a shock. There are several reasons that point to a non-elite season from the Sedins.

    Zone faceoff stats
    Everyone knows about this one. The Sedins start most of their faceoffs in the offensive zone, more so than pretty much anyone else in the league.

    This past season, Daniel Sedin started in the offensive zone 66 per cent of the time (third in the league among players with 30 or more games), and Henrik 63.7 per cent (ninth in the league).

    In 2011-12, Daniel started in the offensive zone 79.6 per cent, and Henrk at 78.6 per cent (first and second in the league, minimum 60 games).

    In 2010-11, Daniel started in the offensive zone 74.5 per cent of the time (first) and Henrk 71.4 per cent (second, again, minimum 60 starts).

    And so on.

    This leads to more opportunities for points, obviously.

    But with a new head coach on the way, will the Sedins continue to see such offensive zone starts numbers?

    Look at it this way. This past season, Henrik was on pace for 77 points, which would have been his lowest amount in six years. Daniel was on pace for 69 points, which would have been his lowest number since before the 2004-05 lockout (not including his injury season of 2011-12).

    If those offensive zone starts decline this season under John Tortorella, that will negatively impact the Sedinsí point totals.

    Penalty kill
    Torts has already announced he plans on using the Sedins on the penalty kill. This is something the twins have wanted for quite some time, but former coach Alain Vigneault wouldnít allow.

    Last year, Henrik averaged nine seconds a game of shorthanded ice time and Daniel four seconds. The year before that, Henrik was at five seconds a game of shorthanded ice time, and Daniel four seconds.

    The key to all of this is their time on ice per game. They have never averaged 20 minutes of ice time per game. They mostly hover around the 19 minute mark.

    So if they start being used on the penalty kill, one of two things is going to happen:

    1) They stay the same in regards to overall ice time, and ice time used for the penalty kill will be taken from even strength ice time. This will reduce the amount of offensive chances they can get per game, hence reducing their points.

    2) Their ice time will increase each game by a minute or two. Penalty killing takes a lot of energy. Can the Sedins handle an extra 1:30 of hard ice time per game? Will they start to get tired as the season wears on? Fatigue will play a big factor in this scenario, and theyíll start to slow down as we get closer to April.

    Numbers after age of 32
    One of my favourite statistic. You know how many players had 100 point seasons at the age of 32 or over? Only 10 (Wayne Gretzky, Phil Esposito, Gordie Howe, Marcel Dionne, Jaromir Jagr, Ron Francis, John Bucyk, Jean Ratelle, Joe Sakic and Daniel Alfredsson). Alfredsson and Sakic are the only two players to do it since the 04-05 lockout.

    The Sedins are now 32 years old, and will turn 33 on Sept. 26. What are the odds they are added to this list?

    Not great. And therein lies the problem. An elite NHL player should have a shot at 100 points. When one thinks of current elite players in the NHL, they think Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Alex Ovechkin, Steven Stamkos and so on.

    Every single one of these guys is considered elite, and a threat to get 100 points. A 70-point player is not elite.

    Those two great seasons were more of an outlier than the norm

    If you look at the numbers of Henrik (here) and Daniel (here), you will see they had two great seasons. But except for that, theyíve been at or below point-per-game numbers.

    Whatís more likely: These guys are elite players, or they are consistent just-below point-per-game players who had two great seasons?

    Itís the latter. And if thatís the case, that means while it is possible for them to have a great season, odds are it wonít happen.

    If you look at the numbers, you'll see their points-per-game decrease in each of the last four years. And there's nothing to suggest a big turnaround is coming.

    And thatís why they shouldnít be considered elite. There are just too many factors working against them.

    Taking all these reasons into account, they will probably finish the upcoming season with around 65-70 points, with maybe Henrik hitting around 72 points.

    So if you know of someone in your league who still views them as elite, itís time to trade them now, before everyone else catches on.
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    Good work! I traded both last year!!!! Rep given for the great post!
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    i forget where i read it but forwards seems to peak around 25-26, hold until their late 20s, then start to decline. the sedins are obviously well past this point as they are turning 33 later this year.

    in keeper leagues i try to trade my 29 year old all stars for 21-24 year old potential superstars. the players that are 27 now are the 03 draft class....

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    Great story - hope to see more from you...
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    Default Great work

    I traded Henrik Sedin when he had 104 points to Tavares 67 points with burrows

    The following year they both tied for 81 points and the other owner was already mad at that trade.

    Another stat I like to put out there is there isn't more than 3 players that repeat as top 10 scorers due to injury. It was Stamkos, Kessel that repeated this year, so if you have a player that is a top 10 scorer if his name isn't stamkos you should trade him while his value is high.

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    Bravo, very well done. Great research and a well thought out piece. Rep to you, sir.
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    I wholeheartedly agree. They are good players who had the bounces really go their way which gave them some big stats a few seasons ago. One more year with a shot at 70 points and for the next few seasons beyond they will probably be in the 60-65 point range
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    Great post for sure, but I guess it depends on someone's definition of elite. In today's NHL, I consider point per game "elite." Out of hundreds of players, only 10 or so are able to accomplish point per game each year. Limiting "elite" to only people capable of 100 points seems very arbitrary to me. I think it has to be done relative to their peers.

    Henrik, for example, has finished 24th, 15th, 1st, 4th, 9th, and 20th in the past 6 seasons in scoring. Well over Point per game.
    Is he declining? Sure.
    Is he a sell high? Very possibly, but I tend to believe he's good for one more elite season, based on my definition of it. Also, in a salary cap league, he is relatively terrific value at only 6.1 mil cap hit.

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    Great article but I think elite = 100 pts is kind of high.
    I think the only 100 point threat every season is Crosby right now.

    Stamkos, Malkin, Giroux, Tavares are 90-95 guys and possibly Ovechkin and Backstrom if they show up.

    I think the definition of elite should be 90 points nowadays. Then decide if you think the twins could possibly reach that number.

    Personally I think they could but will fall into the 80-85 region.

    They're still a top 10-15 in NHL points this season easily.
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    Great post. I tend to think they might have a couple more years of 75+ pt production before they start to decline into the 60s. Henrik will be the one to sell sooner though, because he's so one-dimensional compared to Daniel - assists and little else, especially SOG - Daniel will hold his value much longer in all but points only leagues.

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    Quote Originally Posted by eyemissgilmour View Post
    Great post for sure, but I guess it depends on someone's definition of elite. In today's NHL, I consider point per game "elite." Out of hundreds of players, only 10 or so are able to accomplish point per game each year. Limiting "elite" to only people capable of 100 points seems very arbitrary to me. I think it has to be done relative to their peers.

    Henrik, for example, has finished 24th, 15th, 1st, 4th, 9th, and 20th in the past 6 seasons in scoring. Well over Point per game.
    Is he declining? Sure.
    Is he a sell high? Very possibly, but I tend to believe he's good for one more elite season, based on my definition of it. Also, in a salary cap league, he is relatively terrific value at only 6.1 mil cap hit.
    This is a great point. Rep given.

    If you look at how many PPG players there were in NHL since the lockout, you will find the following:
    2005-6: 37
    2006-7: 32
    2007-8: 24
    2008-9: 20
    2009-10: 21
    2010-1: 14
    2011-2: 9

    I did not include this past season because it is a much smaller sample size. As you can see, back in the day PPG players grew on trees. Well, not really but when you have Ladislav Nagy scoring at PPG you know it should not be used as marker of an elite player. But then we have had a steady drop since 2005-6 season. So I would argue that now PPG is a pretty good marker of an elite player. And Sedins have easily accomplished that. Of course they are declining but I would not write them off just yet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by eyemissgilmour View Post
    Great post for sure, but I guess it depends on someone's definition of elite. In today's NHL, I consider point per game "elite." Out of hundreds of players, only 10 or so are able to accomplish point per game each year. Limiting "elite" to only people capable of 100 points seems very arbitrary to me. I think it has to be done relative to their peers.

    Henrik, for example, has finished 24th, 15th, 1st, 4th, 9th, and 20th in the past 6 seasons in scoring. Well over Point per game.
    Is he declining? Sure.
    Is he a sell high? Very possibly, but I tend to believe he's good for one more elite season, based on my definition of it. Also, in a salary cap league, he is relatively terrific value at only 6.1 mil cap hit.
    Yeah, everyone's definition of elite is different. I take it as someone who has a shot at getting 100 points. That's truly the cream of the crop.

    Jason Spezza, for example, has pretty much the same points-per-game average since the lockout as the Sedins, but I wouldn't call him elite. He's had four seasons of being a point-per-game player (the same as Daniel, and close to Henrik).

    Eric Staal has four seasons of being a point-per-game guy since the lockout. Same thing. I wouldn't call Staal an elite player.

    What I find most interesting about the Sedins is how their points per game has gone down by about 0.5 points in the last four years. Daniel has gone from 1.35 to 1.27 to 0.93 to 0.85. Henrik has gone from 1.37 to 1.15 to 0.99 to 0.94. Along with the reasons I've already outlined, that's why I don't have confidence in them reversing that trend.
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    Really good stuff here, Newf. +1

    While I tend to disagree with your definition of "elite," I think the days of Henrik and Daniel being considered as top-flight fantasy options are now dwindling. Granted, they should be very much serviceable for at least another few years; however, to consider them "elite" PPG options is a bit of a stretch -- considering age, statistical decline, usage, etc.

    Nice post.
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    Agree with the others - very, very solid. I'll be honest in that I had my doubts that the piece would amount to much when I first clicked on it, since the decline of the Sedins kind of has a "been there done that" feel to it, but you certainly gave it a new and insightful perspective.

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    Good post.
    Though... if we don't call Daniel Sedin "elite"... who can we call an Elite LW?

    Elite = finest or best.
    I think limiting this to 100pt players is too thin.

    IMO, you've got to broaden that definition to the top 2%. (Mensa-style)
    30 teams x 4 lines = 120 per position.

    Top 2% would be the top 2 or 3 at each position.
    If that is the definition, then Henrik Sedin has never really been elite for any more than one year.
    And Daniel Sedin has been an elite LW... but are there really 2 or 3 LWers better than him?

    I'm not sure.
    LW is a thin position.

    Overall, excellent post. B.
    Last edited by Pengwin7; July 23, 2013 at 5:22 PM.

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