Rebound players: low sh% + low PDO

[znith]

Often times a player will suffer a particularly unlucky or just plain bad season. PDO can help with some of the luck part, and shooting percentage generally will regress to the players average (if we have enough of a sample size).

I'm using this to look for players who are due for bounce back years.

Ex. Zach Parise - 9.9% this year vs 11.3% career, PDO of 974 this year vs 1029/1014 in his best 2 seasons. This suggests that one could expect more like a 35-40 goal year than the 30 goal pace he was on.

Thoughts? Other examples?

Edit: check behindthenet.ca for data on PDO

[agoodburn]

Although not much of a sample size, I would expect Nugent-Hopkins to shot better then the 5.1% he shot last year vs. 13.4% he shot in his rookie season. Guys like Thornton and H. Sedin shoot in the 12% range.

[rataylor22]

The fantasy guide throws out a list of high PDO players expected to regress and low PDO players expected to rebound, out in about two weeks. (No I am not a writer, but it's seriously worth the purchase price)

[znith]

Although not much of a sample size, I would expect Nugent-Hopkins to shot better then the 5.1% he shot last year vs. 13.4% he shot in his rookie season. Guys like Thornton and H. Sedin shoot in the 12% range.

Yup could definitely see that. Even average forwards are no where near 5%, much less good players.

Also didn't know that the dobber guide had that. I might have to check it out. For now we can talk here.

[austeane]

Then there is Voracek... If I remember right, he has shot 16%.... But had a 960 PDO...

[adalyfrey]

Drew Shore had a S% of 3% and a PDO of .944 (5v5 ES), I'd look for that to climb given more opportunity.
Silfverberg had a S% of 7.5 but a PDO of 1.017 (5v5 ES) - his linemates shot 6.71 5v5, so if he does in fact play with Getz & Perry I'd expect that to jump to Getz' 10%

[gfunkb7]

Often times a player will suffer a particularly unlucky or just plain bad season. PDO can help with some of the luck part, and shooting percentage generally will regress to the players average (if we have enough of a sample size).

I'm using this to look for players who are due for bounce back years.

Ex. Zach Parise - 9.9% this year vs 11.3% career, PDO of 974 this year vs 1029/1014 in his best 2 seasons. This suggests that one could expect more like a 35-40 goal year than the 30 goal pace he was on.

Thoughts? Other examples?

Edit: check behindthenet.ca for data on PDO

Nothing better to do on a Sunday evening. Parise had 10.8% S%, little below his average with almost perfect PDO. Prorated, you're looking at about 36 goals, which is spot on the analysis.

I like the fact that three of keepers ( ovechkin, byfuglien and yakupov ) have had very poor PDO while posting little above 3 year S% ... And still won the championship.

Im definitely looking into that this summer.