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Thread: Picking my 4th and final keeper after the FA buzz

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    Default Picking my 4th and final keeper after the FA buzz

    Hey all, hate to add to the list of keeper q's, but now I'm posed with more of an issue in selecting my 4th and final keeper in a 10 team keep 4 league.

    the 3 players I've been contemplating since the start of the off-season has been Seguin, Doughty, Spezza, and Vanek.

    Seguin - Attractive pick because he has the chance to break out in DAL however it's a high risk medium to high reward at this point. Him playing with Benn could be very awesome to watch.

    Doughty - great peripheral stats in a multi-cat league, good for a wide enough range of points where it's fair to say he could get anywhere from 35-50 points in a single season, add in blocked shots, hits, and PIM's and it actually shows why he's in the picture at all

    Spezza - Spezza is just a great player when it comes to points, with all the hype surrounding Ryan, it's hard not to add a little of that overflow to Spezza. The biggest question is whether or not he stays healthy and unfortunately there is no way to tell. It was frustrating enough for me to draft him 1st overall last year and only have him for 5 games.

    Vanek - Vanek plays on a depleted Buffalo team, however, with all the talk about Yahoo and ESPN cracking down on dual position eligibility, keeping a LW becomes more attractive. I would draft one with my first pick but unfortunately, I traded that away in a deal to acquire Karlsson so it was worth it.

    Thanks for any responses -- rep to go out as well for the insightful answers. Thanks.
    [SIZE="1"][FONT="Verdana"]10 team Cumulative Points Only - Keep 4
    G (3), A (2), +/- (1), PPP (1), PIM (0.25/min), S (0.4), H (0.2), Bs (0.2), FoW (0.1), W (4), Sv (0.2), SO (4), GA (-1)
    C - Anze Kopitar, Tyler Seguin,
    LW - Alexander Steen, JVR, Evander Kane
    RW - Jakub Voracek, Thomas Vanek, Bryan Little
    D - Erik Karlsson , Mike Green, Alex Pietrangelo, Mark Streit, James Wisniewski
    G - Jonathan Quick , Jonathan Bernier, Braden Holtby

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    Spezza or Seguin.

    Spezza has most upside and better for FOW (he got 80+ points with mediocre to average wingers 2 years ago and now has Ryan), but durability questions.

    Seguin is someone ppl keep projecting to be a 70-80 pt player - not sure if he's mature enough to reach it yet, maybe this trade will kick his butt in gear.

    Doughty's stats have declined for a couple seasons, and you're already keeping Karlsson.

    Vanek is a frustrating player to own - will kill it for first half of season, and then drop off. Buffalo's gotten rid of a lot of his better linemates. I wouldn't bother keeping him even with LW designation.
    Last edited by cdubb; July 12, 2013 at 7:20 AM.
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    Another vote for Spezza or Seguin.

    They both carry a similar balance of risk/reward.

    Seguin could have a huge breakout season and has just as much upside as Spezza did at his age. Seguin will play major minutes and major PP minutes on a line with Benn. Also at his natural position of C he'll simply get more "touches" as he'll be involved in the play more often.

    Spezza is a proven high point player but he' had 1 full season out of the last 4. Could be a bandaid boy in the making. He had back surgery AND played through a knee injury. http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=672090.

    My vote would be Seguin but I wouldn't blame someone for picking Spezza.
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    12 Team - H2H Keeper League - 25 Players - 13 Keepers
    (G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SOG, GWG, W, GAA, SV%)
    Keepers
    C: Tavares, Benn, Stepan
    LW: Galchenyuk, Parenteau, Landeskog.
    RW: Wheeler, Simmonds
    D: Subban, Schultz.
    G: Price, Dubnyk, Pavelec.

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    One thing to add is that if Seguin keeps his RW eligibility then he'll be even more valuable with FOW as one of your categories. Furthermore, since you are already keeping Kopitar, the balance might be more useful.

    Spezza - very tempting, but I wonder about Seguin's position eligibility giving him that extra value over Spezza.

    Vanek - I'm iffy on him. Even though LW is a thin position, I wouldn't (arguably) downgrade just for that balance. He's also weak in peripherals, so if his offense dries up a bit, his value takes a big hit. There should still be some decent LW available.

    Doughty - no thanks. Keep 4 and you already have Karlsson. There will be plenty of decent D in the draft.

    As this is a keep 4 in a 10 team league, you tend to play it more on a year to year basis as the draft will be crucial on your success. I will also assume that you start 2C/2L/2R,4D? You should specify this in your signature.

    Another way of looking at it, what is likelihood of either Spezza or Seguin falling back to you in the draft? Where do you draft? What players would likely be available in the first round? Though with Seguin, and his move to Dallas, his perceived value has likely gone up, which means more people would target him.
    Last edited by horrorfan; July 12, 2013 at 9:05 AM.
    Yahoo Baseball, One-year, 20 teams, Rotisserie (click below to show settings)
     
    Midsummer Classic:
    C,1B,2B,3B,SS,3OF,Util/2SP,2RP,3P,5BN,2DL,1NA * R,HR,RBI,SB,AVG,OPS/W,SV,HLD,K,ERA,WHIP * Max games/innings=162/1250

    Baseball is Life:
    C,1B,2B,3B,SS,IF,3OF,2Util/4SP,3RP,2P,4BN,3DL * R,HR,RBI,SB,AVG,OPS/W,SV,HLD,K,ERA,WHIP * Max games/innings=162/1475

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    Seguin for me. (It's Seguin or Spezza. Vanek & Doughty are not in the discussion, IMO).

    1. He should enter next season as a RW in fantasy hockey sites. If Dallas plays him at C, then you'll get extra points from his FOW.

    2. Your SIG says "cumulative points". If that is "full-season accumulation)", then Spezza's value drops - since he often gets injured. Spezza is also 30 years old and a big guy (6'-3"). From my experience of watching the NHL, bigger forwards start to break down easier & earlier than smaller forwards. Those big legs, shoulders, hips... they just seem to go out earlier. So... Spezza's injury problems could (!!!) get even worse!

    To give them a risk score:
    Spezza is likely to be an 80/100 producer, but a risk to play 75% of games.
    Seguin is likely to be a 70/100 producer, and a risk to play 95% of games.

    If it were H2H, I might go Spezza.
    In Roto or Total-Points, I go Seguin.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post

    2. Your SIG says "cumulative points".
    Good spot I missed that.

    CT-Chill -

    You need to clarify what that means. If it indeed means points, and each category has an assigned value, then you need to specify those values, either in your sig or in the original message. This info is crucial to receiving complete advice. In such a situation, individual categories don't have as much relevance, rather what categories have the most effect on the total fantasy points per player.

    If this is not a 'points' league, then that needs to be clarified in your signature. H2H Category win/H2H One Win/H2H Points/Roto/Points etc can change player value significantly.
    Yahoo Baseball, One-year, 20 teams, Rotisserie (click below to show settings)
     
    Midsummer Classic:
    C,1B,2B,3B,SS,3OF,Util/2SP,2RP,3P,5BN,2DL,1NA * R,HR,RBI,SB,AVG,OPS/W,SV,HLD,K,ERA,WHIP * Max games/innings=162/1250

    Baseball is Life:
    C,1B,2B,3B,SS,IF,3OF,2Util/4SP,3RP,2P,4BN,3DL * R,HR,RBI,SB,AVG,OPS/W,SV,HLD,K,ERA,WHIP * Max games/innings=162/1475

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    Ok, I'll be the black sheep on this forum. Remember, this is one man's opinion, so don't be too harsh on me.

    Quick and Karlsson are no brainers. The issue is between Kopitar, Spezza and Seguin, which two? You have entrenched Kopi and are deciding between Segin and Spezza. I would be entrenching Spezza and deciding between Seguin and Kopi.

    I value Spezza over Kopi for several reasons. In terms of hits and bs, you lose on Spezza. In every other category, all things being equal, you come out ahead with Spezza. Spezza is a better point getter than Kopi by a mile. The only issue with Spezza, as you correctly identified, is health. However, if you look at his history since 2003 (i.e. excluding his rookie year), last season was the first year he had been out for any extended period. prior to that, he played 80+ games in 2 out of 8 seasons; 75-80 games in 2 out of 8 seasons; 65-70 games in 2 out of 8 season and 60-65 games in 2 out of 8 seasons. Outside of the Clouston years and his first two seasons, he always eclipsed a ppg, usually significantly. Now, he gets to play with Ryan, and should explode on that basis alone.

    Kopi is a great player, but despite being the go-to guy on the Kings, their "man", every pp, every scoring situation, etc..., he seems to peak at 75-80 points.

    My philosophy is that to win a pool, you need to take chances, and I could not forego Spezza's upside over health concerns, especially given the fact that he usually plays in excess of 65 games per season. If he plays a full season, 90+ is realistic; and he has demonstrated an ability to play a full season.

    Between Kopi and Seguin, I woud take Kopi. Seguin will IMO one day eclipse Kopi, but I think he is a couple of years away. Kopi is steady, consistent and will get the points.
    13 team Keeper, top 8F, 4D and 2G count. 1pt G/A, 2pt W/SO.
    Protect b/w 375 - 400 points in a full season

    F: P Kane, Kessel, Vanek, Pavelski, Wheeler, Hodgson, Little, Lucic, Stepan, Brown, Burns, Drouin

    D: Suter, Markov Streit, MacDonough, Kulikov

    G: MAF, Crawford, Dubnyk, Lehner

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    While I would probably pick Seguin based on your question, I think Sharp is one of those underappreciated fantasy studs. 3 positions, tons of shots, good pts and peripherals. Usually very consistent, little downside.

    Also - any chance you can turn Seguin, Spezza and Doughty into a top 5 guy?
    12 Team keeper league. 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 2G - keep 15 players (3C, 3 LW/RW, 4D, 2G). G, A, PIM, +/-, PPP, SHP, GWG, Shots, W, GAA, Sv, SO.
    C: Spezza, Stepan, B. Richards, Granlund, Grabovski,
    LW: Landescog, Couture (C), Pacierretty, Prust
    RW: Tarasenko, Voracek, Hodgson(C), Williams, Atkinson
    D: Burns, Green, Yandle, Enstrom, Fowler
    G: Hiller, Rask Nabokov

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    Quote Originally Posted by Seeds of Grapes View Post
    Spezza is a better point getter than Kopi by a mile.
    LOL.
    Take it easy on you I will not!

    When we analyze fantasy hockey players, I'm not sure it is wise to go further back than the last 3 years.
    So much changes, especially linemates.
    And three years... a player ages a lot, especially when we are talking "the other side of 27" (the standard "peak" age for athletes)
    Here, you can consider 3 years... I'll go 4 years... if you want, go 5 years.

    Kopitar's last 4 years:
    2009-2010: 81pts in 82games. .987ppg
    2010-2011: 73pts in 75games. .973ppg
    2011-2012: 76pts in 82games. .927ppg
    2012-2013: 42pts in 47games. .894ppg
    Totals: 272pts in 286games. 0.951ppg (only 8 total missed games)

    Spezza's last 4 years:
    2009-2010: 57pts in 60games. 0.950ppg
    2010-2011: 57pts in 62games. 0.919ppg
    2011-2012: 84ptsin 80games. 1.050ppg
    2012-2013: 5pts in 5games: 1.000ppg
    Totals: 203pts in 207games. 0.981ppg (with 87 total missed games)


    IF both played a full season:
    Kopitar: .951ppg x 82games = 78pts
    Spezza: .981ppg x 82games = 80pts

    TWO points.
    Not a mile.
    TWO points.
    So is that really worth the risk?... TWO points... for a guy that typically misses games and whose past few years include the words "back surgery" and "shoulder surgery".

    Not for me.
    No way.

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    Pengwin,

    I stand by my assessment. You are absolutely correct to have injury concerns, but in terms of pure scoring potential, IMO, it is not even close.

    You look back to 2009-2011, and correctly note that Spezza underperformed in those years. I attribute that to Clouston. Incedible what effects a poor coach can have on his players' performance. Pre and post Clouston, Spezza was outstanding. That is no coincidence. I would note that in my comment I stated "Outside of the Clouston years ... he always eclipsed a ppg, usually significantly." I thus do not believe that the stats you cited correctly reflect Spezza's and Kopis relative contributions (no offence meant, just my opinion), as the stats you cite tae into account Spezza's performance under a coach who completely mismananged him.

    I also strongly disagree with the notion that players "on the other side of 27" are coming off of their peaks. There is an age where players tend to lose a step, but IMO it is well beyond 27. Examples include Sedins, Thornton, Datsyuk, St. Louis (I know, unfair of me to cite him - he is an anomoly), E Staal, Perry, Getzlaf, Vanek, etc... Historically, there have been many elite Fs who have succeeded into their mid-30s, including Sakic, Messier, Gretzky, Robitaille, Lafleur, etc...

    In an opening draft with all players on the table, if I had my choice between Spezza and Kopi, I would stil take Spezza. You would take Kopi. We would be good trading partners
    13 team Keeper, top 8F, 4D and 2G count. 1pt G/A, 2pt W/SO.
    Protect b/w 375 - 400 points in a full season

    F: P Kane, Kessel, Vanek, Pavelski, Wheeler, Hodgson, Little, Lucic, Stepan, Brown, Burns, Drouin

    D: Suter, Markov Streit, MacDonough, Kulikov

    G: MAF, Crawford, Dubnyk, Lehner

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    You said Spezza outscores Kopitar "by a mile".
    Unless your mile is "2 points"... you are incorrect.

    And Spezza scored huge pre-Clouston because Alfredsson & Heatley were on that team at their peaks... pre-Clouston.

    The athlete peak age of 27 is widely accepted.
    If you look at 1000 NHL players (that have played, 300+ games, say) in modern NHL history (last 15 years)... I'd bet that 60% or greater had their best season at 27 or earlier.

    Go google:
    peak + age + hockey + player

    Tell me what you find.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    You said Spezza outscores Kopitar "by a mile".
    Unless your mile is "2 points"... you are incorrect.
    I guess you insist on counting the Clouston years. I disagree. Clouston terribly mismanaged Spezza, affecting his numbers adversely. It is not fair to count those totals in determining Spezza's potential.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    And Spezza scored huge pre-Clouston because Alfredsson & Heatley were on that team at their peaks... pre-Clouston.
    Sure, and since Clouston left, he has averaged just about a ppg without players of that caliber (Alfredsson was well past his prime at that point). Now, he has Bobby Ryan. I expect his numbers to increase.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    The athlete peak age of 27 is widely accepted.
    The issue here is also not about peaking, but about relative performance. Even if Spezza has peaked, I still see him as a superior option to Kopi. That is, even if he does not score at a 1.38 ppg pace again (his peak year re ppg), he should still get more points than Kopi.

    Also, your fact is not "widely accepted". In fact, plugging your search string into google, I found one relevant site, http://fromtherink.sbnprivate.com/20...yers-prime-age. I believe that players are most productive from 27-34 years old, depending on the player and the circumstances. The site I found from your search string states the following:

    "This small sample size tells us that star players tend to explode as the enter their mid-20s, then they have sustained excellence until their early 30s"

    "The goal, then, is to sustain a level similar to that like Joe Sakic, who managed to eclipse a point-per-game five times after turning 30.

    "So which is it? Do players get better at 27 or is it all downhill from there? In terms of general performance, an athletic male hits muscle mass peaks in his 30s, thought that varies based on diet, genetics, workout plan, and type of sport. For example, tennis players tend to peak around 24 while baseball players around 28. Basketball and soccer players are considered in the similar range as the 27-32 span we generally use for hockey players."

    "If you put all this info together, much of the commonly accepted wisdom about peak performance seems to stem from A) physical strength peaking from mid-20s to early 30s and B) mental maturity from the mid-20s onward leading to more focused and successful athlete."
    Last edited by Seeds of Grapes; July 12, 2013 at 1:33 PM.
    13 team Keeper, top 8F, 4D and 2G count. 1pt G/A, 2pt W/SO.
    Protect b/w 375 - 400 points in a full season

    F: P Kane, Kessel, Vanek, Pavelski, Wheeler, Hodgson, Little, Lucic, Stepan, Brown, Burns, Drouin

    D: Suter, Markov Streit, MacDonough, Kulikov

    G: MAF, Crawford, Dubnyk, Lehner

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    We will have to agree to disagree.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    We will have to agree to disagree.
    agreed - no hard feelings!

    Although I will always admit that Spezza is a health concern.
    13 team Keeper, top 8F, 4D and 2G count. 1pt G/A, 2pt W/SO.
    Protect b/w 375 - 400 points in a full season

    F: P Kane, Kessel, Vanek, Pavelski, Wheeler, Hodgson, Little, Lucic, Stepan, Brown, Burns, Drouin

    D: Suter, Markov Streit, MacDonough, Kulikov

    G: MAF, Crawford, Dubnyk, Lehner

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    Yeah, I could have expanded on the scoring setup of the league.

    I meant cumulative points, total points for a full season.
    - maximum games played factors in, 164 maximum games are to be played by each of the positions except defensemen (who have a total of 328 maximum games).
    - scoring values are as such: Goals= 3pts, assist= 2pts, +/-= 1pnt, PIM's= 0.25pts/min, PPP= 1pnt, FoW's= 0.1pts, hits= 0.2pts, blocked shots= 0.2pts, shots= 0.4pts
    - goalie values: Wins= 4pts, shutouts= 4pts, goals against= -1pnt
    - We are also thinking of adding another scoring and goalie category however we're not exactly sure what -- anything from game winning goal to shoot-out goals, and adding something like save% to goalies. But none of that has been really talked about.

    Thanks for all the input so far -- with regards to Kopi vs. Spezza, I am a Kopi homer, I do still think that his ceiling is higher than what I'd peg Spezza at now. I see Spezza as a 75-80 point player with the ability to still break 85 maybe once, where as Kopi is 26 and consistently playing full seasons and putting up 75-80 with less to work with -- his goals were substantially lower than usual last season and really that is the only stat I would say changes and it will increase, so as mentioned, he would have had a 78 point season in a full season where that is still factoring in a lengthy slump of scoring goals. Maybe it's just my homerism talking who knows. With stats like hits/blocked shots, and FoW's, Kopi's value only increases in my mind since he's on the ice so much.
    [SIZE="1"][FONT="Verdana"]10 team Cumulative Points Only - Keep 4
    G (3), A (2), +/- (1), PPP (1), PIM (0.25/min), S (0.4), H (0.2), Bs (0.2), FoW (0.1), W (4), Sv (0.2), SO (4), GA (-1)
    C - Anze Kopitar, Tyler Seguin,
    LW - Alexander Steen, JVR, Evander Kane
    RW - Jakub Voracek, Thomas Vanek, Bryan Little
    D - Erik Karlsson , Mike Green, Alex Pietrangelo, Mark Streit, James Wisniewski
    G - Jonathan Quick , Jonathan Bernier, Braden Holtby

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