Way to Early Goalie Rankings for next season
To help get me through offseason I thought I'd post my "Way to Early Goalie Rankings".
My league is W, GAA and SV%. In my head-to-head one year league I don't like to overpay for goalies (don't take one of the first 5 goalies) as I find there's usually a ton of value in guys going 10-25. For example this past season Niemi, Price, Crawford went 11th, 12th, 13th and Bobrovsky went undrafted.
When making my rankings I like to start by making "tiers" and then rankings guys within each tier. In my league goalies are only 3/12 stats so not as important and we'll have around 30 taken in our draft.
Rankings
Tier 1
Lundqvist, Rask
This is probably the easiest tier.
1-Lundqvist is still King, he is a perennial Vezina finalist and as close to a sure thing as there is.
2-Rask has proven he's a very solid goalie he gets a big bump because he plays on a very sound defensive team and his backup just signed elsewhere this offseason.
Tier 2
Quick, Niemi, Crawford, Luongo, Price, Rinne, Bobrovsky, Schneider
Each of these guys has the potential to win the Vezina but has 1 or more factors keeping them out of Tier 1
3-Quick - was amazing in 2011-12 and playoffs but then showed some regression. Still a great goalie on a strong squad and with Bernier gone will not have to worry about surrending many starts.
4-Niemi- almost the opposite of Quick, has been very solid for a long time and took it to another level in 2013. If he can keep it up for a whole season he'll be a steal, if he regresses to his average he's still be pretty solid.
5-Crawford- a very solid young goalie who now has the confidence of a cup. He gets a big bump playing on the very defensive Blackhawks (who allowed Emery to post a 1.94 this season). With Emery gone he should get more starts. Still some questions about his consistency and the dreaded cup hangover may loom.
6-Luongo- Has always been a great regular season goalie, assuming they work it out he'll get 65+ starts for Vancouver which is still a very good team. The only question remains his head, will he play hard for the Canucks after the "fiasco".
7-Price- Finally had the breakout season many were hoping for in 2013. However I think he and the Habs over-achieved and we'll see a regression of both his peripherals and wins next season.
8-Rinne- has been very steady for a long time but had an ugly 2013. I'd expect his numbers to be better next year than the 2.43 and .910 he posted but the Predators are going to give up a lot of shots and pick up few wins next season.
9-Bobrovsky- the ultimate risk/reward pick. Played out of his mind for the 2nd half of the shortened season showing his potential, also Columbus has gotten much better in the past year. However I think anyone expecting a repeat of his stats is wrong and so he's #9 on the list.
10-Schneider- has shown he's a sound fundamentalist but 2 things work against him. Brodeur is still in New Jersey and will get at least 1B starts, also a new team means a learning curve and New Jersey is not as good a team as Vancouver is.
Tier 3
All of these guys also have lots of potential but issues that push them down the list.
Fleury, Anderson, Smith, Howard, Backstrom, Bernier, Lehtonen,
11-Fleury- which Fleury shows up? as bad as he's been in the last 2 playoffs last season he was 4th in wins with a 2.39 and .916 which is very solid. We know the Penguins will win games but he won't start a ton with Vokoun around. I think he could be a great sleeper pick this year with everyone remembering his crappy playoffs.
12-Anderson- his stats are a crazy yo-yo. In 2010 after getting traded to Ottawa he had a 2.05 for 18 games. 2011 he posts a 2.81 and then this year played great until getting hurt. He won't post a 1.69 for a full season, he's got some young guys chomping for his starts and he's never posted a full season of solid numbers. Still with Ottawa improving he could present great value.
13-Howard- admittedly I never give Detroit goalies any love. Howard is not flashy but he consistently puts up steady numbers even as I expect the Wings to faulter each season.
14-Smith- another guy who benefits from a system. Tippett makes goalies look good and we can expect that to remain the same. He falls down the list because of injury concerns and because Arizona won't win a ton of games.
15-Backstrom- yet another guy I was stunned to see so high in the rankings. He tied for the league lead in wins on a Minnesota team thats getting better. His 2.43 and .909 are what I'd expect him to consistently put up.
16-Bernier- big question mark here. He's been touted as a great goalie and he'll get his shot at #1. New team is a learning curve and Toronto's D while OK is not as good as LA's, the main reason for him not being higher is we don't know how many starts he'll get and we've never seen him be a true #1.
Tier 4
These are the guys who are still very servicable.
17-Lehtonen-has the potential to improve with Dallas getting much better. Injury concerns are always present.
18-Miller- its amazing how far he's fallen from a few seasons ago. Buffalo does not look like a good team and Miller's head doesn't seem right. Still if he could regain his Vezina form he'd be a great steal.
18-Ward- has never really shown the potential he did in his Rookie Conn Smythe run. Carolina is also in for some hurt in their new division. People seem to love him or hate him and without SVs as a stat he falls in my rankings.
19/20-Hiller/Fasth- The same can be said for both guys, both are solid goalies in a tandem on a team that played very well last season. If Anaheim moves one the other guy moves to about 12 on my list as he'll get a true starter's load, as it is neither can exceed 50 starts which means carrying 3 goalies which I detest.
21- Holtby- lost amongst Ovy's second half surge was the improvement in Holtby's numbers. If Washington can return to the top of the East and Holtby grabs the starters job he could rack-up the wins while his peripherals steadily improve.
22-Halak- if any goalie can grab 1A status in STL they're in a great spot to post good peripherals. Halak has the best shot at that but injuries and his underwhelming play last season make him a question mark.
23-Nabokov- he just keeps on ticking with the Islanders. Another guy who finished very strong during the regular season, he'll still get the bulk of starts on a NYI team that was much better this past season but who lost Streit in the offseason. He's 37 so should have some milage left.
24-Dubnyk- will go into camp as the undisputed #1. His numbers have been improving and the Oilers should in theory start improving one of this years.
24-Pavelec- again an undisputed #1 on the rise. He had flashes of great play offset by getting killed last season.
25- Reimer- without Bernier's acquisition he'd probably be in Bernier's spot on the list. He broke out in a big way this past season but I think he starts as 1B after the trade for Bernier. If he can grab the starter's role he could be solid.
Remainders
I don't have a goalie from Calgary, Colorado, Philly or Florida listed.
Calgary- won't touch this with a 10 foot pole. The team will be bad and the goalie will be bad.
Colorado- Varlamov could have some potential if the Avalanche can start playing better as a team
Philadelphia- the team can score so they'll win some games and Streit will improve their D however nothing makes me think Emery/Mason will shine this year.
Florida- Markstrom is a very solid goalie and should finally be the 1A guy this year but Florida will be bad and I think Markstrom has plenty of learning left to do.
Tampa Bay- acquired Bishop who will fight Lindback for the starting job. I'd expect them to win some games but the peripherals will be ugly.
Top Backups
I hate using a roster spot on a guy who isn't going to get the majority of the starts but if I did it would be on one of these guys as they will post solid numbers and each has a shot at temporarily stealing a starting gig
Vokoun- great in the playoffs, where is MAF's head at?
Brodeur- has been the man in NJ forever but he's getting up in age, will he give up the starter's gig without a fight?
Neuvirth- has potential on a great Washington team but will have to take the starting job from Holtby
Elliott/Allen- getting starts in St. Louis is a great situation. Allen is apparently the real deal while Elliott has flashes of brilliancy. If Halak goes down whoever gets the starts will post solid numbers.
Last edited by LawMan; July 11, 2013 at 1:27 PM.
12 team H-2-H 1 year league, daily roster changes, 3 goalie start minimum/week
2xC, 2xRW, 2xLW, 4xD, 3xUtil, 2xG, 5 Bench
G, A, P, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, Hits, W, SV%, GAA, SVs
C: C. Keller, C. Mittelstadt, B. Nelson, R. Strome,
LW: K. Connor, B. Tkachuk, J. Gaudreau, J. Marchessault, E. Rodrigues, A. Lafreniere
RW: K. Fiala, J. Bratt, T. Jeannot V. Arvidsson
D: R. Josi, J. Trouba, E. Gustafsson,
G: L. Thompson, F. Gustavsson, V. Vanecek
NO IR
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Originally Posted by Pengwin7
