Bernier trade?

[MeThOd]

Hello everybody,

which of those sides do you prefer?

Karri Ramo and John Carlson

or

Jonathan Bernier and Brendan Smith

The contracts both of them signed leads me to believe that both of them will be starters.

While Bernier has more upside, he also has better competition in Toronto.
Will Ramo be able to carry over his KHL success? He is clearly on the worse team.

How about the difference between Smith and Carlson. Do they have similar upside?

Carlson is the clear choice between those 2 right now, and he is also younger than Smith...

What side would you prefer in a full keeper Points Based multicat H2H league?

[JHM]

Bernier for me.

This is a deal in which to concentrate upon "best player".

I like some of the other players too, but Bernier is most likely of the bunch to graduate to a high level. You get to wonder about big starts. We also get to wonder if Toronto has moved into the middle of the pack. Calgary is clearly the front runner in the 2014 draft lottery.

Ramo is still hit and miss.

Carlson, well, I like him very much. He's turning into an excellent D-man. Offence will continue to improve.

Smith. After last season, I'm a bit confused where he's pegging in at the NHL level. He's an NHLer, but it's fair to question whether he'll be a points guy, at this time.

[mounD]

It's all pretty speculative as to whether Ramo / Bernier will be the starters on their respective clubs; however, it seems like, given their respective contracts ($$), that Bernier has the upper hand in that discussion. Now, lets assume that Bernier and Ramo have an equal chance of becoming a starter. If that is the case, you should probably go with whichever goaltender has the best combination of surrounding team + talent + upside. Toronto is clearly the better team at this point in time, possessing a much better D corps. In addition, most would agree that although Bernier hasn't exactly proven his mettle as an NHL starter, he's the more talented goaltender and possesses the higher upside. Therefore, I'm gonna go with Bernier instead of Ramo.

Now, let's consider Brendan Smith vs. John Carlson. Most people would agree, myself included, that John Carlson is clearly the more talented defender and possesses a higher upside; however, an important consideration in this situation is the relative competition for prime offensive minutes and PPTOI. Carlson has Mike Green (resurgent) ahead of him on the depth chart, Green receiving the prime offensive matchups and all the PPTOI on the top unit. Carlson really only has Green ahead of him for those minutes, but WSH's top unit only uses 1 Dman and Green is pretty well entrenched. On top of that, Carlson is a defensive dynamo, and for that reason is heavily relie upon to shutdown the opposition's top players and munch all the tough minutes. So Carlson is in tough to seize any of the prime minutes. As for Brendan Smith, he has Niklas Kronwall (and perhaps Jakub Kindl) ahead of him on the depth chart for prime offensive minutes and PPTOI. While Smith may have a little more competition for those minutes, I would argue that he's in a better position to seize those minutes for a couple reasons:

First off, DET's PP doesn't always use the single Defenseman setup on the point. This is obviously subject to change so I won't really go into detail on this one. Second, but more importantly, Smith isn't exactly the defensive presence that Carlson already is at this point in their respective careers. For this reason, Smith probably won't be relied upon to munch the tough defensive minutes, instead probably seeing the "sheltered matchups," against which Smith should have an easier time asserting himself offensively. Altogether, I would probably prefer Smith over the short term over John Carlson.

Ultimately, this means I would prefer the Bernier side by a relatively large margin. Cheers.

[dongjohnson]

Ramo with Carlson, greater risk and potentially reward. However, all things being equal, I'd stick with side B. Bernier has been proven more, relatively speaking, and the gap from Carlson to Smith has yet to be proven as huge.

[bizzl]

What are the goalie cats in your league? Assuming Ramo gets the majority of the starts in Calgary, which I think is fair, then the peripheries come into play. I have no doubt that his sv% and GAA will be pretty terrible considering the team he plays for, but his wins should be comparable to Bernier's, at least for next year. If wins and SO are the only goalie cats then I think it's Ramo for the short term. Like you say, Carlson is the better defenseman, so that parts an easy choice.

[mounD]

What are the goalie cats in your league? Assuming Ramo gets the majority of the starts in Calgary, which I think is fair, then the peripheries come into play. I have no doubt that his sv% and GAA will be pretty terrible considering the team he plays for, but his wins should be comparable to Bernier's, at least for next year. If wins and SO are the only goalie cats then I think it's Ramo for the short term. Like you say, Carlson is the better defenseman, so that parts an easy choice.

Just for the record, it's entirely possible that Ramo/Berra platoon starts, or that Berra beats Ramo for the starting gig outright. It's not exactly "fair" to state that Ramo is the anointed starter in Cowtown. I would say Bernier and Ramo are in fairly even situations with regard to becoming a starter on their respective clubs.

[bizzl]

Just for the record, it's entirely possible that Ramo/Berra platoon starts, or that Berra beats Ramo for the starting gig outright. It's not exactly "fair" to state that Ramo is the anointed starter in Cowtown. I would say Bernier and Ramo are in fairly even situations with regard to becoming a starter on their respective clubs.

I didn't anoint Ramo the starter in Calgary. I said that that I think it's fair that he will get most of the starts. We agree that Berra/Ramo and Bernier/Reimer are in fairly even situations. Heading into the season I don't think it's a stretch that Ramo should have the upper hand on earning the starting gig, though. Ramo just signed a one-way, 2-year, 5.5 million dollar contract whereas Berra is on a 2-way ELC. Bernier just signed a new 2-year deal worth 5.8 million, and Reimer is in the 2nd year of a 3-year, 5.4 million dollar deal. Politically, I think Ramo is in a much better situation, but that's not to say that Berra or MacDonald won't just outplay him.

Given that Bernier and Ramo are in such similar situations it comes down to the stats and the other pieces in the deal. I would expect the Flames to give up way more goals than the Leafs, so that's a big knock against Ramo. Toronto gave up 2.67 goals/game last year, vs. Calgary's 3.27 per game. That was 3rd worst in the league, so the stats bear that out.

On the other hand, bad defensive teams give up a ton of shots, making saves an important category. I would have expected Calgary to give up more shots than Toronto, but that wasn't the case last year with Calgary giving up 29.4 per game vs. Toronto's 32.3. That means Toronto gave up an extra 139 shots over the 48 game season, and would be on pace to give up 238 more shots over a full season.

As far as I can tell the political situation favours Ramo and Calgary and the team stats favour Bernier and Toronto, making that a very split decision. That only leaves the Carlson vs. Smith debate.

To me there isn't much of a choice to make between Carlson and Smith. Carlson has put up (or been on pace for) between 32 and 37 points for the last 3 years and is a year younger than Smith. When Ovechkin exploded Carlson's pace increased from a pro-rated 37 to 40 points. Smith was a healthy scratch several times and only had 8 points in 34 games. You're right that Smith doesn't have a guy like Green in front of him and a 1 defenseman PP scheme to deal with, but he is much less entrenched on the team than Carlson. The stats above, and the possibility that Smith might be in the press box, make me take Carlson.

This is one of those trades that could go either way in dramatic fashion. If Ramo gets outplayed by Berra or MacDonald in camp and loses the gig then the Bernier side obviously wins. Likewise, if Reimer takes the reins or Bernier gets injured it's obviously the Ramo side that wins. If the goalies are fairly equal but Smith explodes and Carlson is stifled by his defensive duties then it's the Bernier side again.

As a straight up deal, it's the Ramo/Carlson side for me. That doesn't take into account the rest of the team though. What does your team look like? If you've got a bunch of stud defensemen and no real goaltending then it might make sense to buy Bernier hoping that he will be the next big thing in Toronto. If you've got a ton of good goaltending but no defensemen then the Carlson side makes more sense. What's the context here?

[bigbabybuda]

Bernier is by miles the best player in this deal and going to make a lot of people especially Leaf fans look silly who questioned him. He is and will be the number 1 starter in Toronto this year. While Reimers mechanics are let's say spotty Berniers are among the best in the game. Your looking at the next Rask situation here people. Get off the boat the kid is a star and everyone in the know, knows it.

[One87]

Hello everybody,

which of those sides do you prefer?

Karri Ramo and John Carlson

or

Jonathan Bernier and Brendan Smith

The contracts both of them signed leads me to believe that both of them will be starters.

While Bernier has more upside, he also has better competition in Toronto.
Will Ramo be able to carry over his KHL success? He is clearly on the worse team.

How about the difference between Smith and Carlson. Do they have similar upside?

Carlson is the clear choice between those 2 right now, and he is also younger than Smith...

What side would you prefer in a full keeper Points Based multicat H2H league?

Bernier is themore appealing goalie and Carlson the better of the defencemen. When it's all said and done, Bernier's promise is so much larger than Ramo's that it dwarfs Carlson's shadow over Smith who has tremendous upside.

Give me Bernier and Smith.