Contract Estimates

[j_diddy]

I'm just looking to get a sense of what the consenus of Dobberites think these player's cap hits will be when they get re-signed this year and next, so that I can try and start planning my salary cap for next year.

Please add to the list as needed, as i've just listed a few players that I own or have some interest in.

Thoughts? (my estimates)

Kris Letang - ($6-6.5m, would get more in the open market, but if he wants to stay a Pen he'll have to take a bit of a home town discount)
PK Subban - ($6-7m, ditto to Letang, but I think the Habs have a bit of extra cap space... that $5m for 5 yrs would have looked good right about now)
Claude Giroux - ($6.5m, some buyouts by the flyers could get his price up, or if an offer sheet comes in, his cap hit will inflate)
Bryan Bickell - ($2.5m, someone could pay more if he gets to July 5th)
Alex Pietrangelo - ($5.5-6m)
Chris Stewart - ($4-4.5m, based on size and goal scoring)
Kevin Shattenkirk - ($5-5.5m, the Blues have a number of RFAs to sign, but he could be used for trade bait, if moved, he could get $6m)
Zach Bogosian - ($4-4.5m, could be looking at an offer sheet based on potential and size, but if the Jets D-core doesn't change, he slots in behind Buff and Enstrom)
Mikael Backlund - ($1.5-3m, complete guess)
Kyle Palmieri - ($2-3m, another guess)
Sergei Bobrovsky - ($3.5-4m, if he wins the Vezina, he could holdout for more, or an offer sheet could be on the way)
Jacob Markstrom - ($1.5-2m, appears to be the starter, which could give him leverage for more, but hasnt put up the numbers to warrant more)

[rataylor22]

I'm just looking to get a sense of what the consenus of Dobberites think these player's cap hits will be when they get re-signed this year and next, so that I can try and start planning my salary cap for next year.

Please add to the list as needed, as i've just listed a few players that I own or have some interest in.

Thoughts? (my estimates)

Kris Letang - ($6-6.5m, would get more in the open market, but if he wants to stay a Pen he'll have to take a bit of a home town discount)
PK Subban - ($6-7m, ditto to Letang, but I think the Habs have a bit of extra cap space... that $5m for 5 yrs would have looked good right about now)
Claude Giroux - ($6.5m, some buyouts by the flyers could get his price up, or if an offer sheet comes in, his cap hit will inflate)
Bryan Bickell - ($2.5m, someone could pay more if he gets to July 5th)
Alex Pietrangelo - ($5.5-6m)
Chris Stewart - ($4-4.5m, based on size and goal scoring)
Kevin Shattenkirk - ($5-5.5m, the Blues have a number of RFAs to sign, but he could be used for trade bait, if moved, he could get $6m)
Zach Bogosian - ($4-4.5m, could be looking at an offer sheet based on potential and size, but if the Jets D-core doesn't change, he slots in behind Buff and Enstrom)
Mikael Backlund - ($1.5-3m, complete guess)
Kyle Palmieri - ($2-3m, another guess)
Sergei Bobrovsky - ($3.5-4m, if he wins the Vezina, he could holdout for more, or an offer sheet could be on the way)
Jacob Markstrom - ($1.5-2m, appears to be the starter, which could give him leverage for more, but hasnt put up the numbers to warrant more)

Your cap hits look good, pre-last CBA. All projected hits will be excluding hometown discount, all prices in millions.

Letang - $7.5, 6 in Pitt
Subban - $7.5, won't take a discount
Giroux - $8+, ever heard of Getzlaf/Perry?
Bickell - $3.5+, Ever heard of Ryane Clowe?
Pietrangelo - $6.5-7, Drew Doughty
Stewart - $5+, Bobby Ryan
Shattenkirk - $5.5-6
Bogosian - $4, short contract
Backlund - $2ish, needs to show something, anything
Palmieri - $2 seems about right
Bob - $4 at least gets Schneider money
Markstrom - $3 at least

[SeaDawg]

Kris Letang - I agree with your assessment
PK Subban - I like OEL's contract - $5.5 AAV
Claude Giroux - I think you are low...he will want (and deserves) $8 mill a year
Bryan Bickell - no idea really
Alex Pietrangelo - I think you are correct here...again, OEL set the bar for all these young dmen (Voynov, Pietrangelo, Shatts, Subban)
Chris Stewart - I think you are correct
Kevin Shattenkirk - same as Pietrangelo
Zach Bogosian - $4-4.5m
Mikael Backlund - no idea
Kyle Palmieri - no idea
Sergei Bobrovsky - honestly, I think he hits a home run with an AAV of $6-$7 mill (similar to Quick)
Jacob Markstrom - $1.5-$2 for a short two-year bridge contract until he gets his big payday

[CascadeFilly]

Kris Letang - $6.5m (discount to stay, as you suggest)
PK Subban - $5.5 - 6m
Claude Giroux - $7.5 - 8M
Bryan Bickell - $2.5m
Alex Pietrangelo - $6m
Chris Stewart - $4m
Kevin Shattenkirk - $5.5m
Zach Bogosian - $5m (I'd be shocked if this was short-term. Both sides are thrilled with each other. I expect 5 years)
Mikael Backlund - $1.5-2m (short-term)
Kyle Palmieri - $2m (short-term)
Sergei Bobrovsky - $5m
Jacob Markstrom - $2.5m

[27Blue]

regarding the blues duo:

pietrangelo should, and will, get close to the 7 million mark.
shattenkirk shouldn't, and won't, get more than 4.5 million.

[rataylor22]

I don't see how OEL is a comparable for Subban. Yea he is good but he hasn't produced or performed anywhere close to where Subban has. Where exactly, is his Norris nomination? Where are all the people clamouring for OEL? I realize he's in Phoenix but if he was on the same level he would get his run. Nowhere close to the same type of contract. Subban wanted 5 before this year. No way he takes less than 6, realistically I think no way he takes less than 6.5

[DerekReese]

My guess:

Letang - $7.0-$7.5
Subban - $7.5-$8.0, Greedy!
Giroux - $8.5-$9.0, 8 year deal
Bickell - $2.5-$3.0
Pietrangelo - $6.5-7
Stewart - $4.0-$4.5
Shattenkirk - $4.0-$4.5
Bogosian - $4.0-$4.5
Backlund - $1.5-$2.0
Palmieri - $1.5-$2.0
Bob - $3.5-$4.0
Markstrom - $2.0-$2.5
__________________

[Pengwin7]

With the team salary cap scaled back to $64.3m, I expect slightly lower contracts than the past year.

$7.5m: Giroux (Why: Stamkos money.)

$6.5m: Letang (Why: Number will be closer to Neal, $5m, than Crosby, $8.7m. It'll exactly match Erik Karlsson's)
$6.0m: Subban (Why: Management can't make him highest paid Hab over Price, $6.5m)
$5.5m: Pietrangelo (Why: A tad under Keith/Seabrook money)
$4.5m: Bogosian (Why: About $1m less than Buff & Enstrom is right for him.)
$4.0m: Shattenkirk.

***Erik Karlsson's $6.5m is the gold standard for defensemen. I'd be shocked if any of these defensemen get a contract exceeding that.

[27Blue]

if pietrangelo gets a contract for 5.5mil then the blues will have have one of the best contracts in the league... like john tavares good.

[rataylor22]

With the team salary cap scaled back to $64.3m, I expect slightly lower contracts than the past year.

$7.5m: Giroux (Why: Stamkos money.)

$6.5m: Letang (Why: Number will be closer to Neal, $5m, than Crosby, $8.7m. It'll exactly match Erik Karlsson's)
$6.0m: Subban (Why: Management can't make him highest paid Hab over Price, $6.5m)
$5.5m: Pietrangelo (Why: A tad under Keith/Seabrook money)
$4.5m: Bogosian (Why: About $1m less than Buff & Enstrom is right for him.)
$4.0m: Shattenkirk.

***Erik Karlsson's $6.5m is the gold standard for defensemen. I'd be shocked if any of these defensemen get a contract exceeding that.

I have to disagree with you, which is something I rarely do. All your numbers are based on the old CBA. Stamkos, Keith, Seabrook all got their deals pre-CBA. Karlsson's deal actually has inflation built in. So in Karlsson's last 3-4 years he is paid 7-7.5, so that is the comparable for Letang/Subban. Keith also had a long term deal with low money at the end of it, he started at 8 so that number is your real comparable. Stamkos signed a 5 year deal, 4 of which he is paid 8 and the last year he is paid 5.5. So based on Getz/Perry and the start of Stamkos' deal the number for Giroux is 8. Price is paid 7 in the last three years of his deal, so that will be the minimum Subban shoots for. Can't really go off cap hit anymore because you can't lower the cap hit like you used to be able to.

[Pengwin7]

I think it's possible AP gets a contract for only $5.5m.

Several factors here:
1. Karlsson's contract is for $6.5m. (Less important than...)

2. The Blues captain, David Backes, makes $4.5m. Oshie makes $4.1m. Perron makes $3.8m. B.Jackman makes $3.1m. Players know what their teammates make. When players re-sign, there is a serious consideration between player-and-team MORE towards "value amongst teammates" rather than "value amongst league equivalants".

Pittsburgh, for example, is in a great position because everybody signing there is "relative to Crosby". PIT gave Crosby $43.5m over 5 years in summer of 2007. PIT then gave Malkin $43.5m over 5 years. By "league equivalent", Malkin could've looked for Ovechkin type money... but he would have created lockerroom stir to look for something that makes him "better than Crosby (the captain)". Now that Crosby has accepted another $8.7m contract... that is the new benchmark for them. Somebody would have to have an enormous ego to re-sign at more than that.

Similarly, Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf had exactly similar $5m contracts in their previous terms. In their most recent terms, Getzlaf signed first at $8m+ per... until 2021. Then Perry signed after at $8m+ per... until 2021.

So... anyways, for AP to sign for $6m... he'd be making WAY above Backes or Jackman. And if Shattenkirk signs for $4m... would AP (& his agent) really be so bold as to ask for $2m more than Shattenkirk?

In other words... if nobody in STL is making $5m... then AP getting $6m puts him on an upper echelon above other teammates. Does he deserve this? Very possibly. Is it good for team chemistry? Probably not.

People compare themselves (salary-wise) mostly to co-workers... not to people working for other companies.

[27Blue]

I think it's possible AP gets a contract for only $5.5m.

Several factors here:
1. Karlsson's contract is for $6.5m. (Less important than...)

2. The Blues captain, David Backes, makes $4.5m. Oshie makes $4.1m. Perron makes $3.8m. B.Jackman makes $3.1m. Players know what their teammates make. When players re-sign, there is a serious consideration between player-and-team MORE towards "value amongst teammates" rather than "value amongst league equivalants".

Pittsburgh, for example, is in a great position because everybody signing there is "relative to Crosby". PIT gave Crosby $43.5m over 5 years in summer of 2007. PIT then gave Malkin $43.5m over 5 years. By "league equivalent", Malkin could've looked for Ovechkin type money... but he would have created lockerroom stir to look for something that makes him "better than Crosby (the captain)". Now that Crosby has accepted another $8.7m contract... that is the new benchmark for them. Somebody would have to have an enormous ego to re-sign at more than that.

Similarly, Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf had exactly similar $5m contracts in their previous terms. In their most recent terms, Getzlaf signed first at $8m+ per... until 2021. Then Perry signed after at $8m+ per... until 2021.

So... anyways, for AP to sign for $6m... he'd be making WAY above Backes or Jackman. And if Shattenkirk signs for $4m... would AP (& his agent) really be so bold as to ask for $2m more than Shattenkirk?

In other words... if nobody in STL is making $5m... then AP getting $6m puts him on an upper echelon above other teammates. Does he deserve this? Very possibly. Is it good for team chemistry? Probably not.

People compare themselves (salary-wise) mostly to co-workers... not to people working for other companies.

AP is easily worth $2million more than anyone elso on the Blues. He is their franchise player and nobody on the team is even close to the value he adds. What other players in the room make is irrelevant.

[Pengwin7]

What other players in the room make is irrelevant.

No. This is wrong.

[27Blue]

No. This is wrong.

No. not in AP's case. Maybe in a few cases where some unproven talent wants to be the highest paid player on the team, but in AP's case he knows he will be the highest paid Blue after this year, his agent knows it, Armostrong knows it and every player in the room knows it... so in this case, what Backes makes, or what Oshie makes, or what Shattenkirk signs for has NO bearing on the contract that AP signs. He may sign for less than market value - Armstrong has a history of getting his RFA's to take less, but if AP want to ask for the moon, he will get it.

[j_diddy]

thanks for the help all...

i have to admit, I had totally forgot about Getzlaf and Perry both resigning at $8m+ and that those would be the latest comparables for Giroux.

But with Philly's cap situation, i still don't see him making $8+, unless Philly matches an offer sheet for him. I think the closest example of where he could end up is Stamkos at $7.5 so that he can still allow the team some flexibility to add to the lineup and allow them to resign Read, B. Schenn and Couturier next year.