Calgary Flames

[ultrawhiteness]

So ... some thoughts here. This team is getting crazy good production from strange sources. The back end is obviously the highlight of the roster, along with goaltending.

When you look at the results on ice, you can't argue with the fact that they are winning games. However, there are a lot of underlying stats (which I realize some people don't give two shits about) which seem to indicate there is a lot of smoke and mirrors happening as well.

For those who watch these guys, does it seems like they can keep it up, or should we be expecting a regression this season?

Personally I am shocked that this team keeps winning when you look at some of the underlying stats going on, but in the few games I have actually watched, they just seem to do the right things at just the right time, and are getting the goaltending needed, to get the results. And at the end of the day wins are ALL that matter.

I can't figure this team out at all.

No, you've pretty much got it nailed doulos.

Regression monster will most likely hit. It doesn't always (stat guys don't always remember that there are outliers in every season), and it's a young team that might see guys improve as things go on (+ Backlund returning, best forward on the team).

But yeah, I would still be putting my money on missing the playoffs.

[ultrawhiteness]

What's more impressive is when we keep in mind that Monahan is assigned to shut down the other teams top line every night. Seems like he's starting to hold his own against these guys on most nights.

With hindsight, he was a perfect pick since he played a very similar role in all his years with the Ottawa 67s. Efficient scoring carrying a weak a team, playing against top comp every night.

[Dutch]

I wonder what is gonna happen when Colborne, Raymond and a few other guys come back from injury.

Will that screw up the chemistry?

[ultrawhiteness]

I wonder what is gonna happen when Colborne, Raymond and a few other guys come back from injury.

Will that screw up the chemistry?

It will probably coincide with their 45% possession rate catching up with them, so I'm sure that's the story we'll get.

Also I'm still not fully convinced Colborne is a useful player, but I could be wrong.

[rataylor22]

No, you've pretty much got it nailed doulos.

Regression monster will most likely hit. It doesn't always (stat guys don't always remember that there are outliers in every season), and it's a young team that might see guys improve as things go on (+ Backlund returning, best forward on the team).

But yeah, I would still be putting my money on missing the playoffs.

It will probably coincide with their 45% possession rate catching up with them, so I'm sure that's the story we'll get.

Also I'm still not fully convinced Colborne is a useful player, but I could be wrong.

These two statements in the same page haha. Just golden. Wow this is a clueless assessment. Backlund is barely a top 6 player on this team, and is also likely done for the year. He's not returning anytime soon. And next year, once Bennett comes in, it's even less likely Backlund is a top 6 player. He's a third line, Brandon Sutter type guy. Good player, but nowhere close to their best forward.

Colborne certainly isn't going to be a guy that carries a line, but he's a big guy with really good hands. Even Colborne is more likely and better suited for a top 6 role than Backlund.

[doulos]

That's an odd post. Really wasn't hating on the team at all in what I said. I mean, yeah, I hate the Flames, but I feel like I was fair in what I said wasn't I? Which part do you take issue with?

[mister_mcgoo]

But yeah, I would still be putting my money on missing the playoffs.

Why? It worked for Colorado last season, no reason why it can't work for the Flames this year.
Every year we get at least one team playing above their heads that surprises and gets into the playoffs, sometimes all you need is some lucky bounces early on, its gives you confidence and you build off that and ride it into the playoffs, Calgary is playing with a lot of confidence and they never look out of a game no matter who the opponent is, I bet they make the playoffs

[ultrawhiteness]

Why? It worked for Colorado last season, no reason why it can't work for the Flames this year.
Every year we get at least one team playing above their heads that surprises and gets into the playoffs, sometimes all you need is some lucky bounces early on, its gives you confidence and you build off that and ride it into the playoffs, Calgary is playing with a lot of confidence and they never look out of a game no matter who the opponent is, I bet they make the playoffs

hey I totally agree with you, odd things do happen. there's definitely an outlier or two every year!

but even admitting that... i still think there's a better than 50% chance that the bad stats catch up to them (poor possession, high Sh%, high Sv%). hard to sustain that stuff for 82 games with this roster.

I'll give you this: if their playoff chances were 10% before the season started, i'd say they're up to 40-45% and that is quite the accomplishment. it's a fun year to be a Flames fan... they've already been wildly successful compared to expectations.

[ultrawhiteness]

These two statements in the same page haha. Just golden. Wow this is a clueless assessment. Backlund is barely a top 6 player on this team, and is also likely done for the year. He's not returning anytime soon. And next year, once Bennett comes in, it's even less likely Backlund is a top 6 player. He's a third line, Brandon Sutter type guy. Good player, but nowhere close to their best forward.

Colborne certainly isn't going to be a guy that carries a line, but he's a big guy with really good hands. Even Colborne is more likely and better suited for a top 6 role than Backlund.

we may be using different criteria. i'm not thinking of fantasy hockey when I say that Backlund is their best forward. but in terms of playing against the best players every night, he absolutely killed it last year (him and Bro-dano were among the very best trios in the entire league last year at winning the possession battle).

go to the flamesnation bloggers, who follow this stuff closer than anyone, and ask.

Untitled.jpg

as for Colborne... if he develops into a top 6 forward on a good team (important caveat!), very few will be happier than me.

[Dutch]

the flames of 2014-2015 remind of the predators 2005-2013

is that a fair assesment?

[everfeb]

Early in Oct I had asked..."Have a question about Giordano if you can help. Looking at his career stats he's not produced a lot of points over the years. Was last year an aberration or do you expect him to produce a lot of points/game again this year...maybe a top 10 ppg defenceman? Thanks."
GAINERAMA replied....

...

Giordano put up the points last year cause the coach removed any type of shackles on him and allowed him to play anyway he wants. Since he became the Captain, he's also playing at a lot higher level now that everyone on the roster is looking to him for leadership and he's elevated himself with the new responsibility. Expect more of the same from him this season cause it seems like he turns it on even more when the pressure is on.

Based on this reply I put him on my pool team. You were sure spot on with your assessment gainerama. Gio's been fantastic and I'm leading my pool by a LOT. Thanks.

[rataylor22]

we may be using different criteria. i'm not thinking of fantasy hockey when I say that Backlund is their best forward. but in terms of playing against the best players every night, he absolutely killed it last year (him and Bro-dano were among the very best trios in the entire league last year at winning the possession battle).

go to the flamesnation bloggers, who follow this stuff closer than anyone, and ask.

Untitled.jpg

as for Colborne... if he develops into a top 6 forward on a good team (important caveat!), very few will be happier than me.

Yea, I know you didn't mean fantasy hockey. Nor did I. Backlund is nowhere close to their real life best forward. You're basically saying the equivalent of "Brandon Sutter is the best player on the Penguins because he takes the toughest defensive matchups". Well he is their checking line center, that's his job. Just because Backlund was arguably the Flames best defensive center last year doesn't mean he is their best forward. It means he is their best defensive center. First off, that is completely discrediting the defensive progression of guys like Monahan. Secondly, since when does best defensive forward make you the best forward? Offense is an important part to and Backlund is replacement level bad on offense. Brandon Sutter is in fact the perfect comparable to Backlund, so I'd like to hear your argument of how Sutter is the best forward on Pittsburgh. Go.

[doulos]

A little tidbit I didn't know (sorry if this was noted elsewhere already), but when Giordano won 1st Star of the Month for November, that's the first time since the awards started being handed out in 2006-2007, that a defenseman won 1st star. Incredible.

I got this from a blog http://flamesfrom80feet.blogspot.ca/...lin-it-no.html Lots more interesting information there, particularly for you Flames fans. Check it out!

[ultrawhiteness]

Yea, I know you didn't mean fantasy hockey. Nor did I. Backlund is nowhere close to their real life best forward. You're basically saying the equivalent of "Brandon Sutter is the best player on the Penguins because he takes the toughest defensive matchups". Well he is their checking line center, that's his job. Just because Backlund was arguably the Flames best defensive center last year doesn't mean he is their best forward. It means he is their best defensive center. First off, that is completely discrediting the defensive progression of guys like Monahan. Secondly, since when does best defensive forward make you the best forward? Offense is an important part to and Backlund is replacement level bad on offense. Brandon Sutter is in fact the perfect comparable to Backlund, so I'd like to hear your argument of how Sutter is the best forward on Pittsburgh. Go.

Backlund was also, far and away, the Flames' best forward last year at moving the puck up ice, and at sustaining offensive pressure.

Despite playing on a barren roster, he put up half a point/game while playing Selke-quality minutes... so you, my friend, have a strange definition of replacement-level.

Since you don't seem to rate Kent Wilson's opinion (or didn't bother looking at that attached tweet), maybe the fact that Justin Bourne made Backlund the focus of his Unique Traits post on the Flames before the season started. http://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/574209

Brandon Sutter... are you serious? OK, supposing the Flames had Crosby and Malkin, I would not be saying that Backlund was the best forward on the team. I do however think he's better than Sutter. Frans Nielsen is a better comparison, and Backlund crushed him last year:

PlayerUsage.jpg

(From Rob Vollman's player usage charts. Size of bubble is TOI and color is Corsi Rel... dark blue is high, dark red is low.)

But I don't want to slander Sutter. Remove Crosby, Malkin, and Kunitz, add Stajan and a rookie centerman behind him and maybe we'd be praising his work too.

[ultrawhiteness]

A little tidbit I didn't know (sorry if this was noted elsewhere already), but when Giordano won 1st Star of the Month for November, that's the first time since the awards started being handed out in 2006-2007, that a defenseman won 1st star. Incredible.

I got this from a blog http://flamesfrom80feet.blogspot.ca/...lin-it-no.html Lots more interesting information there, particularly for you Flames fans. Check it out!

Wow, that factoid makes me so happy. Huge Gio fan.

I like this too:

Since the beginning of November, Gillies has gone 6-3-0 with a stingy 1.01 goals-against average and a tidy .967 save percentage.