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Thread: Thoughts on this offer?

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    Default Thoughts on this offer?

    Hey guys,

    In a 12 team head to head partial keeper, coming off a 2nd place finish. We can keep 19 players total if keeping 3+ G. If we keep fewer than 3 G, we can keep a total of 20 players. We also keep a 10 man farm (<70/35 GP) which is expanding to 20 this offseason. We start 12 F, 6 D, and 2 G. This is a points based league, and rather than go over all the point denominations I'll just mention which scoring categories are counted:

    Forwards/Defense
    GP, G, A, PPG, SHG, GWG, OTG, hat tricks, PIM, +/-, HIT, BLK, SOG, TOI x 0.1 (defense only)

    Goalies
    GP, W, OTL, SHL, GA, SV, SHO, G, A, PIM

    Current Roster
    F: Backstrom, St. Louis, D. Sedin, E. Staal, Kesler, Williams, Burrows, Dubinsky, M. Richards, Hanzal, Vrbata, Downie, Hagelin, B. Connolly, Jagr, Neil, Morrow, Mueller, Zajac

    D: S. Weber, Ekman-Larsson, Beauchemin, Ehrhoff, Streit

    G: Lundqvist, Halak, Brodeur, Dubnyk

    Farm: C. Coyle, B. Smith, H. Lindholm, B. Jenner, D. Rundblad, O. Klefbom, T. Wilson, J. Armia, R. Boucher, V. Trocheck

    The offer currently on the table is:

    Ekman-Larsson (25.34), C. Coyle (18.38), B. Connolly (6.6) for...
    J. Silfverberg (21.21), G. Nyquist (13.05), N. Kucherov, 4th round pick (#45)

    How do you guys think this stacks up? Am I getting enough for OEL, who I'm extremely high on? I'm short on early picks in this summer's draft, having traded away rounds 3-5. I do have 2 6ths and 2 7ths.

    Rep for your thoughts! Thanks.
    10 team H2H dynasty league
    G A P PPP +/- HIT BLK SOG FW / W GAA SV% SV
    Start 4C 4LW 4RW 1F 6D 2G
    25 man farm <50 GP

    F: Ovechkin, Kopitar, Toffoli, S. Reinhart, Eriksson, Jenner, Cammalleri, Henrique, Silfverberg, J.T. Miller, Hossa, Tierney, Girgensons, R. Boucher, Dano
    D: Subban, Barrie, McDonagh, Lindholm, Pouliot
    G: Jones, Allen, Lehner

    Farm: Athanasiou, Bjorkstrand, L. Brown, Crouse, Kunin, Laine, Lehkonen, Mascherin, Matthews, McLeod, Rantanen, H. Samuelsson, N. Schmaltz, Senyshyn, Soshnikov, Sprong, Tkachuk, Vesey, C. White / R. Andersson, Hagg, McAvoy, C. Miller, Provorov, Pulock, Theodore, Zaitsev / Desrosiers, Gillies, Korpisalo, McIntyre

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    I donīt like that trade at all.

    I think Coyle, Connolly, Silfverberg and Nyquist are all very close and itīs tough to predict who of them will be the best NHL player 5 years from now.

    Kucherov is on a lower level as the others, heīs still a good prospect, but far away from being enough to make this a good trade for you.

    You should get a lot more for Ekman-Larssen.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dennis4022 View Post
    I think Coyle, Connolly, Silfverberg and Nyquist are all very close and itīs tough to predict who of them will be the best NHL player 5 years from now.
    I tend to agree, but I do think Silfverberg and Nyquist are the better of the four. Connolly has a history of injuries and I don't see him, as a goal scorer, meshing well with Stamkos. I also wonder if Coyle's upside will be somewhat limited given that he's projected to become such a good two-way player.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dennis4022 View Post
    Kucherov is on a lower level as the others, heīs still a good prospect, but far away from being enough to make this a good trade for you.
    Also agree here. As I told the other GM, Kucherov is the sexy prospect but he's only been in North America for one season, and while he posted absolutely sick numbers in the QMJHL he has a long ways to go and is far from a sure thing in terms of being a solid NHLer.

    What kind of value should I be getting for a player of OEL's calibre?
    10 team H2H dynasty league
    G A P PPP +/- HIT BLK SOG FW / W GAA SV% SV
    Start 4C 4LW 4RW 1F 6D 2G
    25 man farm <50 GP

    F: Ovechkin, Kopitar, Toffoli, S. Reinhart, Eriksson, Jenner, Cammalleri, Henrique, Silfverberg, J.T. Miller, Hossa, Tierney, Girgensons, R. Boucher, Dano
    D: Subban, Barrie, McDonagh, Lindholm, Pouliot
    G: Jones, Allen, Lehner

    Farm: Athanasiou, Bjorkstrand, L. Brown, Crouse, Kunin, Laine, Lehkonen, Mascherin, Matthews, McLeod, Rantanen, H. Samuelsson, N. Schmaltz, Senyshyn, Soshnikov, Sprong, Tkachuk, Vesey, C. White / R. Andersson, Hagg, McAvoy, C. Miller, Provorov, Pulock, Theodore, Zaitsev / Desrosiers, Gillies, Korpisalo, McIntyre

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    If you're going to move OEL who's a top10 defenseman in the league and he will start to become a top10 fantasy defenseman in the league, I think you should expect to receive atleast a top20 forward for him...

    Nyquist and Silfverberg are very good players with a nice upside but they are not going to be premium players at their position like OEL. I'm sure you could stand pat and find someone in your league who's as high on OEL as you.

    Just send a league-wide message that you have received some interesting offers about OEL, and you want to give everyone a chance to get a crack at him if you're going to move an elite young defenseman like him
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    You are giving up the greatest value (OEL) for depth upgrades. Never a good idea.

    Hold onto OEL. Cheers.
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    Quote Originally Posted by maya has the knife View Post
    The offer currently on the table is:

    Ekman-Larsson (25.34), C. Coyle (18.38), B. Connolly (6.6) for...
    J. Silfverberg (21.21), G. Nyquist (13.05), N. Kucherov, 4th round pick (#45)

    How do you guys think this stacks up? Am I getting enough for OEL, who I'm extremely high on? I'm short on early picks in this summer's draft, having traded away rounds 3-5. I do have 2 6ths and 2 7ths.

    A few notes:
    1. There are 12 teams keeping approx. 20 players each. That's 240 keepers. So the 45th overall draft pick is the 285th best NHL player. That's a pretty terrible player.

    2. In most keeper leagues, I find that you'll only hold your top 50% or top 75% of players. Your bottom half to bottom quarter of players are going to be dropped & changed several times throughout the year. In other words, again, that 45th overall pick is worth almost nothing.


    3. This is a key one. OEL may have a value of 25pts... but that is relative to a defenseman. Your waiver wire defenseman in this league may have a value of 10pts (say). That makes OEL a +15pt relative difference. The average waiver wire forward in this league may have a value of 15pts (say). That would make Silfv a +6pt relative difference. SEE... it's not even close by "relative difference" at these two player positions.

    [note: I don't really know where this "waiver wire value" lies... but OEL could be a top 10 or top 20 defenseman. So, in a 12-team count 6F league, that puts him in the top 10-30% of all defensemen. Whereas, Silfv would be maybe a bottom half player.


    Hold OEL. For sure.

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    Funny thing, I am the other GM in this deal that 'maya has the knife' posted. I was search a couple of the players on the internet and this post came up.......lol.

    Didn't sway my accept / decline on the trade, just found it interesting. Anyways I will update........

    Well, we finally consumated this deal......final detz are as follows

    OEL + Connolly + Coyle + Rundblad
    for
    Nyquist + Silfverberg + Kucherov + 2nd round pick (14th overall)

    Bottom line for me I wanted OEL. I recognize that Nyquist & Silfverberg may have a little more upside that Connolly & Coyle, but was comfortable if I got OEL.

    Rundblad is a wildcard, and although unlikely he hits his potential, if he does I'll be a happy guy..
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    D - PK, OEL, Trouba, Jones, Martinez, Myers, Despres, Beauchemin, Pouiliot,
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    Quote Originally Posted by bctopdawg View Post
    Funny thing, I am the other GM in this deal that 'maya has the knife' posted. I was search a couple of the players on the internet and this post came up.......lol.

    Didn't sway my accept / decline on the trade, just found it interesting. Anyways I will update........

    Well, we finally consumated this deal......final detz are as follows

    OEL + Connolly + Coyle + Rundblad
    for
    Nyquist + Silfverberg + Kucherov + 2nd round pick (14th overall)

    Bottom line for me I wanted OEL. I recognize that Nyquist & Silfverberg may have a little more upside that Connolly & Coyle, but was comfortable if I got OEL.

    Rundblad is a wildcard, and although unlikely he hits his potential, if he does I'll be a happy guy..
    Very good deal for you, not so much for Maya.
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    Quote Originally Posted by bctopdawg View Post
    Funny thing, I am the other GM in this deal that 'maya has the knife' posted. I was search a couple of the players on the internet and this post came up.......lol.

    Didn't sway my accept / decline on the trade, just found it interesting. Anyways I will update........

    Well, we finally consumated this deal......final detz are as follows

    OEL + Connolly + Coyle + Rundblad
    for
    Nyquist + Silfverberg + Kucherov + 2nd round pick (14th overall)

    Bottom line for me I wanted OEL. I recognize that Nyquist & Silfverberg may have a little more upside that Connolly & Coyle, but was comfortable if I got OEL.

    Rundblad is a wildcard, and although unlikely he hits his potential, if he does I'll be a happy guy..
    As an OEL owner, I would not have gone for this deal. I think you did very well for yourself here.
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    Quote Originally Posted by bctopdawg View Post
    Funny thing, I am the other GM in this deal that 'maya has the knife' posted. I was search a couple of the players on the internet and this post came up.......lol.

    Didn't sway my accept / decline on the trade, just found it interesting. Anyways I will update........

    Well, we finally consumated this deal......final detz are as follows

    OEL + Connolly + Coyle + Rundblad
    for
    Nyquist + Silfverberg + Kucherov + 2nd round pick (14th overall)

    Bottom line for me I wanted OEL. I recognize that Nyquist & Silfverberg may have a little more upside that Connolly & Coyle, but was comfortable if I got OEL.

    Rundblad is a wildcard, and although unlikely he hits his potential, if he does I'll be a happy guy..
    Good deal for you. OEL is a complete stud and Coyle will be every bit as good as Nyquist or Silfverberg. Connolly has potential to be close to either guy too. Then you factor in the ultimate wildcard, Rundblad, who turns this deal into grand larceny if he pans out. OEL is almost Pietrangelo level. Sick deal for you.
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