This is awesome! I think its value can only grow each year too. If we get to a larger sample size and Crosby's assist ratio is always quite high and Kovalchuk's is always quite low then we can start to get a better picture of who is due for regression.
Jannik Hansen is the luckiest player in the NHL. .77g/60 .77A1/60 and .77A2/60!!!
Well presented, well explained and really gives people something to sink their teeth into.
Kudos to you sir!
It's some good work but I dont think it goes far enough. You'd need to go farther and do multiple years for the same players to actually determine luck. If players really are lucky then their numbers should fall back in subsequent years. Similarly players who were unlucky should see a boost in subsequent years.
wow, count me a fan too! Great work pengwin!
Some great supplementary reading on this from James Mirtle from a few years back. He makes a great point about how defensemen get the most A2, which is why I hate them so much in fantasy hockey - highly inconsistent from year to year.
I will make one criticism of this stuff. I do think that the A1:A2 ratio has value in demonstrating who was lucky but I don't necessarily agree that players with high A1:A2 ratios were unlucky. I'd buy that for weaker players or defensemen so MDZ makes a really intriguing guy going forward but your top players like Tavares, etc. are dominating the puck so they'll always have higher A1:A2 ratios. They aren't unlucky, they are just good. Their talent is driving their ratio up not luck.
So take a guy like Dupuis playing big minutes on a great offensive team but not as a primary scorer. He had a low A1:A2 ratio therefore lucky. I'm behind that but had he played all those minutes, scored fewer points and generally had a higher A1:A2 ratio then I'd say he was unlucky. Top guys probably don't qualify because they have the puck too much to simply be unlucky to not get more A2.
I don't have any data to back this up so it's just my hypothesis but really you'd have to do this sort of study over multiple years to make conclusions either way. In any case, fantastic work here by Pengwin, you deserve high praise for putting this stuff together. My challenge to you is to take the data the next step so we can really draw conclusions.
Tweet me your fantasy hockey inquiries @SteveLaidlaw
Sometimes I attach the wrong file.
I'll try posting the 241-360 in the next post.
Neither Kovalchuk or E.Kane have ever struck me as deft passers... so you may very well be right about their assists being a result of juicy rebounds. Also, if they are the SCORER on their line, then it's even less unlikely that somebody else on their line can score if two additional passes are needed. And both those guys played on lines with at least one or two sub-tier players.
There is context to all stats. Deft passers like Crosby & Tavares will always be A1 heavy.
I think I mention this and LawMan touched on it too. That won't change.
For the sake of "generalizing" a group of statistics, "lucky/unlucky" are the terms I used - but that term shouldn't be used to classify everybody in that statistical group. Great point.
But you are 100% correct. Not every player that fits into one of my five groups is necessarily lucky or unlucky. They may fall in that group every year.
Next time, I'll make a point to call them differently.
Group 1: ELITE passers -or- UNLUCKY LOW A2 COUNT -or- BOTH?
Good comments by everybody.
Last edited by Pengwin7; May 20, 2013 at 9:25 AM.
(corrected file _test12.pdf)
Well done on the great work here. Will defitnitly help when I prepare my draft list. Thanks for sharing this with us.
Weekly H2H points only (Year 9 - 2015-16)
12 teams limited keeper (keep 6 + 1 Rookie)
13 round draft - Unlimited Trades - No Waivers - No IR
4 Team Playoffs (last 2 reg. season weeks)
Rookies are 23 years old or younger in the draft year and never reached 60pts (forward), 40pts (defense), 25 wins (goalie)
Start : C RW LW Utility D D G
Points : A - G = 1 pt W = 2 pts SO = 1pt
C - S.Stamkos, J.Thornton, T.Teravainen
LW - O.Palat, A.Ladd, C.Kreider, D.Perron
RW - B.Wheeler, T.Toffoli, C.Atkinson, J.Silfverberg
D - E.Karlsson, V.Hedman, J.Schultz, J.Trouba, A.Goligoski, D.Pouliot
G - F.Andersen, D.Dubnyk, A.Niemi, K.Lehtonen
Revised list you posted (page 4) is the right one. Thanks!