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Thread: 2012-2013 Lucky Players, Unlucky Players, and Production Players

  1. #31
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    Default Players 241-360?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    The 241-360 scorers in the NHL, by production (points) per minutes.
    When I click on your link to players 241-360 it's coming up as 121-240 for the second time. Is this happening for everyone? Or is it just me?

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    This is awesome! I think its value can only grow each year too. If we get to a larger sample size and Crosby's assist ratio is always quite high and Kovalchuk's is always quite low then we can start to get a better picture of who is due for regression.
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    Jannik Hansen is the luckiest player in the NHL. .77g/60 .77A1/60 and .77A2/60!!!
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    Well presented, well explained and really gives people something to sink their teeth into.

    Kudos to you sir!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Thanks guys.


    Often times - after I see some eye-catching stats, I'll head over to NHL.com and watch the goals from those player's teammates to find out if those A1 & A2s were coming on shot rebounds... or if they were incredible set-up passes... or if they just passed the puck to the guy in the neutral zone and the scorer did all the work themselves.
    I was just noticing that a lot of the top ratios belong to shoot first guys so my immediate assumption was that the goals were being banged in off the rebound.

    Kovalchuck
    Tavares
    E Kane
    Kessel
    Silf
    Chara
    Carter
    Vanek


    This can't possibly be a coincidence.

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    It's some good work but I dont think it goes far enough. You'd need to go farther and do multiple years for the same players to actually determine luck. If players really are lucky then their numbers should fall back in subsequent years. Similarly players who were unlucky should see a boost in subsequent years.

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    wow, count me a fan too! Great work pengwin!

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    Some great supplementary reading on this from James Mirtle from a few years back. He makes a great point about how defensemen get the most A2, which is why I hate them so much in fantasy hockey - highly inconsistent from year to year.

    I will make one criticism of this stuff. I do think that the A1:A2 ratio has value in demonstrating who was lucky but I don't necessarily agree that players with high A1:A2 ratios were unlucky. I'd buy that for weaker players or defensemen so MDZ makes a really intriguing guy going forward but your top players like Tavares, etc. are dominating the puck so they'll always have higher A1:A2 ratios. They aren't unlucky, they are just good. Their talent is driving their ratio up not luck.

    So take a guy like Dupuis playing big minutes on a great offensive team but not as a primary scorer. He had a low A1:A2 ratio therefore lucky. I'm behind that but had he played all those minutes, scored fewer points and generally had a higher A1:A2 ratio then I'd say he was unlucky. Top guys probably don't qualify because they have the puck too much to simply be unlucky to not get more A2.

    I don't have any data to back this up so it's just my hypothesis but really you'd have to do this sort of study over multiple years to make conclusions either way. In any case, fantastic work here by Pengwin, you deserve high praise for putting this stuff together. My challenge to you is to take the data the next step so we can really draw conclusions.
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    Quote Originally Posted by erneufel View Post
    When I click on your link to players 241-360 it's coming up as 121-240 for the second time. Is this happening for everyone? Or is it just me?
    It's possible.
    Sometimes I attach the wrong file.
    I'll try posting the 241-360 in the next post.

    Quote Originally Posted by 4horsemen View Post
    I was just noticing that a lot of the top ratios belong to shoot first guys so my immediate assumption was that the goals were being banged in off the rebound.

    Kovalchuck
    Tavares
    E Kane
    Kessel
    Silf
    Chara
    Carter
    Vanek


    This can't possibly be a coincidence.
    It may not be.
    Neither Kovalchuk or E.Kane have ever struck me as deft passers... so you may very well be right about their assists being a result of juicy rebounds. Also, if they are the SCORER on their line, then it's even less unlikely that somebody else on their line can score if two additional passes are needed. And both those guys played on lines with at least one or two sub-tier players.

    Quote Originally Posted by metaldude26 View Post
    Some great supplementary reading on this from James Mirtle from a few years back. He makes a great point about how defensemen get the most A2, which is why I hate them so much in fantasy hockey - highly inconsistent from year to year.

    I will make one criticism of this stuff. I do think that the A1:A2 ratio has value in demonstrating who was lucky but I don't necessarily agree that players with high A1:A2 ratios were unlucky. I'd buy that for weaker players or defensemen so MDZ makes a really intriguing guy going forward but your top players like Tavares, etc. are dominating the puck so they'll always have higher A1:A2 ratios. They aren't unlucky, they are just good. Their talent is driving their ratio up not luck.

    So take a guy like Dupuis playing big minutes on a great offensive team but not as a primary scorer. He had a low A1:A2 ratio therefore lucky. I'm behind that but had he played all those minutes, scored fewer points and generally had a higher A1:A2 ratio then I'd say he was unlucky. Top guys probably don't qualify because they have the puck too much to simply be unlucky to not get more A2.

    I don't have any data to back this up so it's just my hypothesis but really you'd have to do this sort of study over multiple years to make conclusions either way. In any case, fantastic work here by Pengwin, you deserve high praise for putting this stuff together. My challenge to you is to take the data the next step so we can really draw conclusions.
    Great post.
    There is context to all stats. Deft passers like Crosby & Tavares will always be A1 heavy.
    I think I mention this and LawMan touched on it too. That won't change.
    For the sake of "generalizing" a group of statistics, "lucky/unlucky" are the terms I used - but that term shouldn't be used to classify everybody in that statistical group. Great point.

    But you are 100% correct. Not every player that fits into one of my five groups is necessarily lucky or unlucky. They may fall in that group every year.

    Next time, I'll make a point to call them differently.

    Like
    Group 1: ELITE passers -or- UNLUCKY LOW A2 COUNT -or- BOTH?
    ...


    Good comments by everybody.
    Last edited by Pengwin7; May 20, 2013 at 9:25 AM.

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    Players 241-360.
    (corrected file _test12.pdf)
    Attached Files Attached Files

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    Well done on the great work here. Will defitnitly help when I prepare my draft list. Thanks for sharing this with us.
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  12. #42
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    Default Players 241-360

    Revised list you posted (page 4) is the right one. Thanks!

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