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Thread: 2012-2013 Lucky Players, Unlucky Players, and Production Players

  1. #16
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    wc - it's just a sort and PDF print. No problem.

    Attached is the PDF for the highest A1:A2 guys.

    These are the first-assist-heavy guys.
    If they continue their first assists and get some extra second assists, these are players that I could foresee improving their "per game scoring".

    btw - I dig the new Wendel avatar!
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    Awesome, thanks buddy.

    Im liking this new one as well, the yellow background makes wendel stand out !

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    Attached is the PDF for the lowest A1:A2 guys.

    These are the second-assist-heavy guys.
    Second assists are often lucky... so some of these players may be due for decreased stats next year.

    *Of note, these are also the players that could be seriously skewed.

    *For example, everybody with an A1:A2 ratio of 0.000 simply did not get a first assist this year. Guys who played 10games and guys that played 40games are all scattered in here.

    *The more dependable information is guys that played a LOT... guys that had some first assists but a LOT more second assists (like Vinny Prospal or Pascal Dupuis or Matt Frattin). Those guys are more likely to regress, point-wise.
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    Last edited by Pengwin7; May 16, 2013 at 5:57 PM.

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    Great stuff as always Pengwin it’s cool to see the new numbers and trends you always seem to come up with. I think that when predicting a stat in the future the formula is:

    past stats + past stats context + present context = solid prediction.

    I agree with your theory that guys have an extremely unbalanced A1:A2 are lucky/unlucky and look for a correction. The caveat I’d add is that I would expect elite passers and playmakers to always have heavier A1 total, this is because when their team has the puck they have it a high percentage of the time and inevitably they produce more goals off their 1st pass than the average player.

    So I’d expect Crosby to have a high A1:A2 ratio and if he does I don’t expect his A2 to improve. Conversely Couture is not the same type of dominant player so when I see his ratio I’m thinking he really was unlucky and we should expect more A2 next year. I’d compare it to when you look at a guy’s season vs. career SH%. If a 9-year guy who is a career 16% has an 11% year we expect his SH% to return near 16% and thus his total # of goals to increase as well, whereas a guy who has a career 12% who dips to 11% is closer to the norm. My point is that comparing a guy’s A1:A2 to the average may not be as indicative as comparing it to his career average.

    I hope that makes sense for context looking at a few names on the first page I’d say:
    Crosby- Ratio I’d expect he has the puck and makes the key passes
    Dupuis- high A2, not surprising he gives Crosby puck = A2.
    Kadri- has good hands but not better than Crosby, should increase A2
    P. Kane- high A1, not surprising given how he can hold the puck and find an open man
    Cullen- insanely high A1, very surprising (PP QB? I’m not sure) should increase A1
    Couture- huge A1, very surprising

    So I’d expect a point bump for Couture, Kadri and Cullen but not for Crosby or Kane. With Dupuis I wouldn’t expect a dip unless he’s taken off the Kunitz/Crosby line because he will get points playing on that line so he carries risk in that sense.
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    Great job Pengwin and thank you! This was actually one of the stats that I looked at when I decided to trade for Kadri. I am hoping that next year he will be able to play with better linemates (for the full season) and therefore has a better chance for secondary assists. Keeping my fingers crossed.

    Also wouldn't have expected Saad to be so high on this list playing with Toews and Hossa. Nice!

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    This is invaluable stuff man. Great work.
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    Thanks guys.
    Yeah... there's some interesting things on the lists.

    Like BOTH Eberle & Hall finished high in A1:A2... suggesting they are both exceptional at finding each other for a set-up pass.
    They also play on opposite sides on the PP, with the RH Eberle on the goalie's right and the LH Hall on the goalie's left. Great positions for slamming home a pass.

    Yeah... I wouldn't have though Saad would be up there.

    Often times - after I see some eye-catching stats, I'll head over to NHL.com and watch the goals from those player's teammates to find out if those A1 & A2s were coming on shot rebounds... or if they were incredible set-up passes... or if they just passed the puck to the guy in the neutral zone and the scorer did all the work themselves.

    Good discussion, I'm glad some people have found some of the numbers to be of interest!!!

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    Thanks Pengwin, this is some excellent info
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    After reading this and looking at the stats. It really explains Sam Gagner's fall during this season. Started really hot and then the lucky second assists just stopped.
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    Pengwin - this is fascinating stuff, really good work here
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    Very cool. So now I know why I'm getting so many offers for Galchenyuk today. He had a pretty good ratio I saw on that first list.
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgraveline View Post
    Very cool. So now I know why I'm getting so many offers for Galchenyuk today. He had a pretty good ratio I saw on that first list.
    Yeah... Gallagher, Pacioretty, and Galchenyuk are all top 15 in the NHL for points-per-60minutes. That's really interesting. I need to watch some highlights of the MON players and figure out who/why that scoring was so good for those players. Lars Eller is top 20 as well.

    Considering how well the kids played... I wonder if Montreal could look to amnesty a forward (Gionta $5m, Prust $2.5m, Bourque $3.33m) so that they had a bit more to spend on re/signing a defenseman.

    Then, they could just give the kids (Gallagher/Galchenyuk/Eller) some top 6 or PP2 time.

    It's going to be one of the more interesting off-seasons in recent memory (due to the lowered salary cap & goalie shuffle).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Yeah... Gallagher, Pacioretty, and Galchenyuk are all top 15 in the NHL for points-per-60minutes. That's really interesting. I need to watch some highlights of the MON players and figure out who/why that scoring was so good for those players. Lars Eller is top 20 as well.

    Considering how well the kids played... I wonder if Montreal could look to amnesty a forward (Gionta $5m, Prust $2.5m, Bourque $3.33m) so that they had a bit more to spend on re/signing a defenseman.

    Then, they could just give the kids (Gallagher/Galchenyuk/Eller) some top 6 or PP2 time.

    It's going to be one of the more interesting off-seasons in recent memory (due to the lowered salary cap & goalie shuffle).
    Gallagher, Galchenyuk and Eller are list that high because they were productive despite their very limited ice time. They weren't seeing any time on the PP (Gallagher did in the second half of the season), but were the most productive forwards on the team at even strength.

    The Habs will definitely buy out Kaberle. Bourque was an option at the beginning of the season, but his play was better this year. No way they are buying Prust, he's the heart and soul of this team. And they won't buy out the last season of their captain.

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    Quote Originally Posted by habs83 View Post
    Gallagher, Galchenyuk and Eller are list that high because they were productive despite their very limited ice time. They weren't seeing any time on the PP (Gallagher did in the second half of the season), but were the most productive forwards on the team at even strength.

    The Habs will definitely buy out Kaberle. Bourque was an option at the beginning of the season, but his play was better this year. No way they are buying Prust, he's the heart and soul of this team. And they won't buy out the last season of their captain.

    Interesting.
    So - what do you think the PP1 & PP2 will be next year... for forwards?
    And do they try to re-sign Ryder?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Interesting.
    So - what do you think the PP1 & PP2 will be next year... for forwards?
    And do they try to re-sign Ryder?
    This year, Therrien went with his vets with Plekanec-Gionta-Ryder and Pacioretty-Desharnais-Bourque/Gallagher on the PP.

    Next season, with Ryder gone (for sure) and Gionta's health in jeopardy, Therrien might be forced to use the youngsters. It will also depend on UFA signings/trades that will occur this summer, but with the actual lineup, the 6 forwards that would see PP time would be Desharnais-Pacioretty-Plekanec-Gallagher-Bourque-Galchenyuk. Eller might be the odd man out because he is the 3rd center.

    There was no significative distinction between PP1 and PP2 this year, so unless one unit plays significantly better than the other one, it might be the same next season. Both forwards units were use in alternance with the Subban-Markov pairing.

    Much uncertainty for next season... ask me again in september!!

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