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Thread: 2012-2013 Lucky Players, Unlucky Players, and Production Players

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    Thumbs up 2012-2013 Lucky Players, Unlucky Players, and Production Players

    The following five posts will include groups of 120 skaters sorted by the following statistic:

    Points... per... minute
    (Actually it's Points-per-60min... to indicate how many points a player might score if he played a full NHL game: 60min.)

    This is one of the more valuable statistics for fantasy hockey people to know.
    If a player is producing well in 16min of time... he's likely going to get more time in the future and therefore... MORE POINTS!!!
    I'll call these "Production Players".


    Another valuable statistic, IMO, is looking at a players 1st assists compared to his 2nd assists.

    1st assists are more telling of set-up passing skill.
    2nd assists might be lucky... or may reflect playing alongside a superior (1st assist) kind of passer.


    I look at the A1:A2 ratio, and then separate into groups:

    Group One: UNLUCKY.
    A1:A2 > 4.
    (For example, a guy with 20 first assists and only 4 second assists).
    Players that are heavy on first-assists... I'll call them UNLUCKY.
    It just means that they did NOT have a lot of second assists.
    The majority of these players' assists were first assists.
    This is a GOOD. THING.
    In future years, if they can repeat their first assist totals, the second assists will probably come by luck.

    Look into getting these guys in the off-season.
    These players are in DARK GREEN on the attached PDFs.
    Guys in this group: Logan Couture, Kadri, Tavares, Krejci, E.Kane, Kovalchuk, Gaborik, MDZ.

    Group Two: Somewhat Unlucky.
    A1:A2 is between 2.00 & 4.00.
    (For example, a guy with 20 first assists and only 8 second assists).
    Similar to above, with a slightly lower ratio.

    If the player (i.e. Crosby) is a really deft-passer... his statistics may not change, because he will always naturally be A1 heavy.
    However, if the A2/60 is low, it may indicate that a player was just lucky in not getting many 2nd assists. Perhaps he'll get more next year and his value will increase.

    Group Three: Typical
    A1:A2 ratio is between 0.500 & 2.00.

    Group Four: Somewhat Lucky
    A1:A2 is between 0.250 & 0.500.
    (For example, a guy with only 8 first assists and 20 second assists).
    This player got most of his points through second assists. That's never good.
    He may have been lucky in just being part of a scoring play.
    This can often be a defenseman mover on a PP, who often is two touches from a goal.
    Of less concern are defensemen... the greater concern is forwards that aren't getting any A1.

    Group Five: LUCKY
    A1:A2 < 0.250.
    (For example, a guy with only 4 first assists and 20 second assists).
    Players that are heavy on second-assists... I'll call them LUCKY.
    WATCH OUT FOR THESE GUYS.
    THEIR STATS MAY DROP.

    We shouldn't count on 2nd assists to repeat. It's too far away from a goal and often reflects luck or being the 3rd wheel on a good line.
    Guys in this Group: Ryan O'Reilly, Sam Gagner, Patrick Marleau, Ryan Malone, Olli Jokinen, Derek Dorsett, Dan Cleary.

    Below are the five PDFs with the following skater groups:
    Scorers #1-120
    Scorers #121-240
    Scorers #241-360
    Scorers #361-480
    Scorers #481-581
    Last edited by Pengwin7; May 16, 2013 at 5:55 PM.

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    The top 120 scorers in the NHL, by production (points) per minutes.
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    The 121-240 scorers in the NHL, by production (points) per minutes.
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    The 241-360 scorers in the NHL, by production (points) per minutes.
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    The 361-480 scorers in the NHL, by production (points) per minutes.
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    The 481-581 scorers in the NHL, by production (points) per minutes.
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    Wow, good stuff dude.
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    Unbelievable work there!! Wow!

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    Really great stuff here Pengwin, thanks for the resource.
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    this is gold. great work.
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    C= crosby,m.koivu,malkin,hopkins,bozak
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    Nice work man.

    Just wondering though, should we be careful on analysing and predicting future production based on a shortened season, which may or may not be indicative of a 'normal' full-season production?
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    Quote Originally Posted by horrorfan View Post
    Nice work man.

    Just wondering though, should we be careful on analysing and predicting future production based on a shortened season, which may or may not be indicative of a 'normal' full-season production?

    Yes & no.
    Obviously... the shorter a sample size (game-span), the greater the possibility for numbers to be skewed.

    Heck, Patrick Marleau was the runaway goal-scoring leader for the first 5, 6, 7, 8 games of the season...

    With assists, yeah... it's a good point.
    Most players - we are looking at 10 or 20 assists.

    But to have an extreme A1:A2, one would have to register at least 4 times as many of one stat as the other stat.

    Over a 5 or 10 game stretch, that might be very skewed... but over 40+ games, it should be somewhat "telling".

    That reminds me, I should go back and revisit my thread from last year on A1 vs. A2... because that had predictions as well.

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    i think out of all of your stats/charts/ thingamajiggys this one is the best. Lupul is at the top, represent!!!

    I remember reading a dobber/angus article about lupul getting practically the same points per a minute on the flyers and anaheim playing second and third fiddle.

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    Thanks.

    I got interested in the A1 vs. A2 concept when I studied the break-out of Claude Giroux. If you go back and look at Giroux's 47pt season (16G, 31), you'll find that most of those 31 assists were FIRST ASSISTS. Back then, Giroux was a bit of a 3rd liner (behind Richards & Carter). Obviously, the promotion to the top two lines helped his production (he jumped from 16min to 19min per game)... but he also got a ton more A2 in the following year when he jumped to 76pts.

    The 3min time increase (19/16) would have translated only to a 19% jump in production... from say 47pts to 56pts.

    But... really... in that 47pt season, he was more of a 60pt player that just didn't have skilled enough linemates to continue his puck passing and get his some SECOND ASSISTS.


    So - I think we can look at some players that had low A2 totals this year and really expect some jumps/bouncebacks next year.

    On my list for improved performance next year (by point-per-game):
    *Logan Couture
    *Marian Gaborik
    *Ilya Kovalchuk
    *David Krejci
    *Jakob Silfverberg


    Also - I think we should be hedgy on some players that had a lot of token second assists this year.

    On my list for decreased performance next year:
    *Sam Gagner
    *Patrick Marleau
    *Pascal Dupuis
    *Vinny Prospal
    *Milan Michalek

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    Great stuff Pengwin!! Ive had a quick glance and this seems like a useful tool in identifying sleepers, breakouts and players that will regress. I will be pouring over these at some point in the near future. I know im being picky/lazy here but I wish it was also sortable by A1:A2 ratio
    Last edited by wendelclark17; May 16, 2013 at 3:31 PM.
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