Overperformers?

[JAMZ]

I posted a similar thread mid-season, but as I get ready to tune up for next year's championship run, I need to know the extent of changes to make to my team. This could involve selling high on some flashy performances this season to shore up some additional D and G.

I finished in second this year by a hair, thanks to outrageous performances (both breakout and comeback) from several players. The question is - who overperformed and who is legit to continue for next season?

Marty St. Lou - 60 pts / 103 pts pace
Alex Ovechkin - 56 pts / 96 pts pace
Patrick Kane - 55 pts / 96 pts pace
Taylor Hall - 50 pts / 91 pts pace
Alex Semin - 44 pts / 82 pts pace
Jake Voracek - 46 pts / 79 pts pace

Always a nice treat to have 3 of the top 5 scorers and 6 of the top 30. Have to believe that this will regress though... thoughts?

Rep given... obviously

[davidgoodburn]

Marty St. Lou - 60 pts / 103 pts pace

Overperformed still a PPG or better player but 100 points is a bit of a stretch for him.

Alex Ovechkin - 56 pts / 96 pts pace
Hold. A bit of a wild card here but he seems to have figured out Oates system and is back to his old ways.

Patrick Kane - 55 pts / 96 pts pace
Overperformed. A PPG is about his ceiling. unreal year for Chicago that they are hard pressed to repeat.

Taylor Hall - 50 pts / 91 pts pace
Hold. Kid is a stud and only improving. If only he could stay on his skates.


Alex Semin - 44 pts / 82 pts pace Peak performance.
Has shown he can play at a PPG. Can he maintain it, I am sceptical. iF someone will pay for him at his current value you sold at his peak.


Jake Voracek - 46 pts / 79 pts pace Hold.

Should settle in at 70-75 points.

[Bronz]

I posted a similar thread mid-season, but as I get ready to tune up for next year's championship run, I need to know the extent of changes to make to my team. This could involve selling high on some flashy performances this season to shore up some additional D and G.

I finished in second this year by a hair, thanks to outrageous performances (both breakout and comeback) from several players. The question is - who overperformed and who is legit to continue for next season?

Marty St. Lou - 60 pts / 103 pts pace
Alex Ovechkin - 56 pts / 96 pts pace
Patrick Kane - 55 pts / 96 pts pace
Taylor Hall - 50 pts / 91 pts pace
Alex Semin - 44 pts / 82 pts pace
Jake Voracek - 46 pts / 79 pts pace

Always a nice treat to have 3 of the top 5 scorers and 6 of the top 30. Have to believe that this will regress though... thoughts?

Rep given... obviously

Marty is an overperformer
I can see him being a lil less than ppg next year, if you can sell high you should but wouldnt settle for "fair market value". Basically you shop him at a premium

Ovie is back
Even with only half a season of being back, he put up elite numbers

Patrick Kane was a slight overperformer
Chicago will still be an offensive powerhouse and while Kane might regress, he is still a little over a ppg clip in him prime from here on in

Taylor Hall - I'd say he overperformed
I wouldn't say Hall is better/has more potential then Kane, but I would say he can maintain close to a ppg clip

Alex Semin - Overperformed
He had his bounce back elite year just to show everyone he has it. Unforunately that will probably give him little inclination to prove it next year, especially since he just got a huge contract. Not saying he isn't elite skilled, just saying he shouldn't be considered elite

Jake Voracek - Overperformed
Voracek's a good player, but I'd easily put him lowest on the pecking order with all the skaters above. Him being elite depends on him playing on Giroux's wing, and that shouldn't make anyone be considered elite at all. I wouldn't be surprised to see Wayne Simmonds switch spots with him over the next couple of years next to Giroux.

[JAMZ]

Thanks guys.

This is basically what I have feared - that most of the scoring I got this year will likely not be repeated. Still curious to see what others have to say.

I may still have some magic up my sleeve in the offseason. I flipped Marleau to get St. Louis in the pre-season, so perhaps I can pull a similar deal

[davidgoodburn]

Perhaps target Kopitar. You are weak at Center and he underperformed a bit especially in the shots department.

A bit of a longshot here but maybe throw some feelers out on Malkin. He had a tough year with injury and performance . Some combination of St. Louis/ Kane/Semin/Voracek might get his owner interested.

[mister_mcgoo]

Marty St. Lou - 60 pts / 103 pts pace

That's high at this point in his career but he's the kinda guy that if you own him you just hang onto him til he decides to hang em up and just reap the yearly benefits.

Alex Ovechkin - 56 pts / 96 pts pace

He's back, I expect him to match or improve on that pace next year

Patrick Kane - 55 pts / 96 pts pace

Seems a little high to me, he'll be closer to 80-85 range normally but there's no reason he can't hit 95 pts at some point

Taylor Hall - 50 pts / 91 pts pace

That's about where I think he'll wind up if he can stay healthy for full seasons

Alex Semin - 44 pts / 82 pts pace Peak performance.

No, he always get's hurt and takes games off, he broke ppg once but he'll never do that again

Jake Voracek - 46 pts / 79 pts pace

Seems a tad high, we've seen quite a bit from him now (5 years) and this is the only year he's come anywhere close to this kinda pace...I think he's more a product of Giroux than anything, if they stay together then good for him, otherwise he will falter, he's not talented enough in his own right to produce at that pace consistently

[Lemmy]

Marty St. Lou - 60 pts / 103 pts pace- will be 38 this year, but that is not slowing him down. I would still shop him because you may not get as much value for him as you will now. Shop him for the right price(young stud), if not keep him and expect a couple of more seasons of production.

Alex Ovechkin - 56 pts / 96 pts pace- I think Ovechkin has found his touch again. Keep him

Patrick Kane - 55 pts / 96 pts pace- Healthy and very consistent, surrounded with talent in a great long term situation. Keep him.

Taylor Hall - 50 pts / 91 pts pace- Should have good trade value, but he has not been able to stay healthy a full season. Move him.

Alex Semin - 44 pts / 82 pts pace- Has not played a full season since he joined the NHL, and he has a concussion now. Move him for someone more reliable.

Jake Voracek - 46 pts / 79 pts pace- Flyers seem to have faith in him, and his points and value should stay at just below a point per game. Keep him.

[4horsemen]

I tend to agree with much of what's been said so far

St Louis I will NEVER bet against again. He's a marvel and we should never doubt him (TOO LEGIT)

Ovechkin - Legit

Kane - I seem to be in the minority in thinking he's entirely capable of keeping this up...not a mirage (Legit)

Semin - Mirage. Never bank on this guy

Hall - Legit

Voracek - Overachiever but he's already proven me wrong once when I called him a 50-55 point guy. I'll up that to 60-65 now and hopefully I can stick with it

[JAMZ]

Independent of the varying opinions of the posters here (on the value of each player), it seems that I ought to do some meaningful wheeling and dealing in the offseason. While I am sure that some of my players overperformed, I think there is no question that St. Lou, Kane, Ovie, Hall are entirely legitimate superstars. Semin and Voracek don't get quite that level of credit.

I think ultimately I'd like to hang on to my legitimate superstars (overperformers this year maybe), and try to flip Voracek and Semin for maybe one more superstar forward and a proven powerplay quarterback. This also works for my team from a positional standpoint, since I have a lot of options at the wing.

Wish me luck in the negotiation circuit.

[Pengwin7]

Some different views on this group:

MSL: 100+ pace is high. But he can still do a 90pt pace again. He doesn't age.

Ovechkin: He "seems" to be back, right. But I'm not all aboard that train yet... here's why: Ovechkin's point break-down: 29 ESP, 27 PPP. That 27 PPP projects to 46 PPP. Guess what - that is NOT a repeatable number. OV's previous three years: 23 PPP, 24 PPP, 36 PPP. The Washington PP was back clicking this year when Green turned it back on and Ribeiro in town. Ribeiro is still a UFA... it's possible he signs elsewhere after the big year. Green is always a big question mark. I'd still peg Ovechkin for 85 points (50 ESP, 35 PPP)... but I'd caution on anybody expecting 90points from him... because I'm not sure he can repeat a 46 PPP pace.

Pat Kane: Let's break down Kane's points: 38 ESP, 17 PPP. See... THAT is something I like to see. Pat Kane is showing he can put up even-strength numbers and that 17 PPP projects to an 82-game amount of 29 PPP... which is something he CAN repeat. The downside with P.Kane is that he shot 16.7% and he's normally a 11% shooter... so about 5goals (points) should be taken off his projection.

Hall's numbers are repeatable as well. Nice split: 36 ESP, 14 PPP. I LOVE seeing high even-strenght point totals. Most important statistic, IMO, as fantasy hockey goes. A guy's PPP can always rise and fall. Look to those ESP.

Semin had a nice split too! 35 ESP, 9 PPP. 9 is low. THAT can be improved. Eric Staal actually had just 4 PPP this year and it was Eric Staal that lead the NHL in even-strength points. If that PP starts clicking - which it could, with a good blueliner manning it - then E.Staal & Semin's point totals could both hit 90 in a healthy year. Now, isn't that shit crazy!!!

Voracek is the one guy in this group that I think significantly overperformed. He had 29 ESP, 17 PPP. He is not a "goal-scorer" and potting 22 goals at a 17% shooting rate (for a 10% career shooter) should put up a warning label. He fits well with Giroux... but there's no guarantee he's a long-term solution. As an example, in a points-only league I help a buddy with we moved Datsyuk/Benn/Voracek for Hall/Parise/Burns. Mostly that was a move anticipating that Datsyuk & Benn both open next year as C only... but I was happy to land two elite LWers for a group that may have no LWers going forward.

In summary:
Can re-achieve: P.Kane, Hall, Semin! (if healthy!)
Will be slightly below: MSL, Ovechkin
Will drop significantly: Voracek

[havanablast21]

St. Louis - is a legitimate elite player who still has gas in his tank. He likely will slip a bit next year, but I still see 90 pts potential.

Ovie - While he may be back...he may also be a blip on the radar. I just don't trust some of these Russian players and their commitment/passion for the game and this league. You guess is as good as mine. I'm still happy I moved him and he's no longer my problem. I would expect his trade stock has started to return as a result of his late season run.

Kane has been a bit hot and cold to over the past couple years, but I think he's got it figured out, as does the Blackhawks. Not sure he'll reach 100 pts, but I do believe he can be a consistent ppg player moving forward. (may hinge slightly on who ends up on his line and if he stays at C or swings back to the wing.

Hall. WOW...anyone who suggests you should move this guy...I disagree with. This year is the first year we saw what #4 is capable of...it was just a start. This guy is going to be electric and I don't believe there's any questions anymore (as there was over the past 2 years) who the #1 guy in Edmonton is. Just wait until they realize the need to re-shuffle the lines and he ends up with a vetern center and Yakupov on the RW. Watch out NHL. Watch out. 90 - 100 and top 10 forward from hear on end I believe.

Semin - JUST TO POINT OUT...McGoo was mistaken...Semin has broken PPG status 2 of his 9 seasons and hit on PPG status exactly this year. Sounds like a hater statment to me...but I'll give him latitude following the Habs embarassing defeat last night. lol... However I do agree about his apparent BAB status not having ever played 82 games (only 2 years even coming close at 77gp) and his motivation and passion is always being questioned. That said...if you got him on the cheap...GREAT PICK UP. But now could also be a good time to test his market value. I still think he can hit between 74 and 85 pts if the stars align each year. Your roll though. (I'm sticking with him).

Voracek - yup...I agree with most ... on a full season expect 78 to 84 pts. He did great this season and didn't even get to start his chemistry up with Giroux until the final half or 2/3rds of the season. He could once again over acheive next year but until we see something closer to that 90pt pace...I think he's a safe PPG striver...and occassional hitter. GOod enough for me...I'm keeping him.