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Thread: Yandle or Phaneuf

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    Default Yandle or Phaneuf

    League is H2H points. G: 2 A:1 PIM: .1 HITS: .1 DEF PTS: .5 PPP: 1

    I am already keeping Subban. I have room to keep one more D man. I can't decide between Phaneuf or Yandle. Both provide some pts on the offense side, but Phaneuf runs away in the HITS and PIMS. Thought at .1 pts they aren't worth that much.

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    Phaneuf will score fewer points but with PIM/hits he simply dominates Yandle. I'd definitely keep Phaneuf here.

    0.1 may not be much but it all adds up quickly. Yandle would need to outscore Phaneuf by about 30 points to make up the difference from PIM/hits. Not happening.
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    If you look at the stats from this year, hits make a 11.2 point difference. PIM's is 1.3. So nowhere near 30. So while that's significant, it's not insurmountable. Add to the fact that Toronto has Gardiner playing all year next year on the PP, and Reilly coming up, I don't see Phaneuf's totals getting any better.

    Honestly I would keep Yandle, he's performing well without any forward help (the Coyotes leading scorer!) and seems like a player with trade potential to a team needing D help with good forwards (ex. Edmonton). Watching Phaneuf make a hit and forget his defensive responsibilities is too frustrating to watch, even in fantasy.
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    Quote Originally Posted by First Round Pick View Post
    If you look at the stats from this year, hits make a 11.2 point difference. PIM's is 1.3. So nowhere near 30. So while that's significant, it's not insurmountable. Add to the fact that Toronto has Gardiner playing all year next year on the PP, and Reilly coming up, I don't see Phaneuf's totals getting any better.
    12.5 points more would have put Yandle as the leading scorer amongst D-men this year. Yeah, that difference is pretty insurmountable to me. Completely different to put up 30 points in 48 games than to put up 42 in 48 games. Huge difference.

    And that difference becomes bigger when they play 82 games instead of 48. Last year the difference from hits/PIM was about 22. So it definitely gets close to around 30 like I said. Yandle with 22 points more last year would have put him at 65 points. That's how much he basically needs to score to be as valuable as Phaneuf. So he'll need to get in the Karlsson category pretty much to outpoint Phaneuf in this setup. I'm not seeing Yandle being capable of doing that.
    Last edited by Carcillo; May 7, 2013 at 11:35 AM.
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    I would hold on to Phaneuf.
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    Goals are rewarded 2 per (Yandle scores more often), defensive points are an extra .5 per point (again edge Yandle). So no he doesn't need to get to Karlsson territory to be substantially ahead on points. That translates to less than 60 points he needs which he has achieved before.

    Personally I think it's very close, and let's be honest it also depends on which arena is doing the hits calculations also. I just think that Phaneuf's point totals will decrease with the young guys cutting into his power play time. Yandle is already doing this with a crap team.

    That being said, if you can trade Phaneuf plus something for an upgraded keeper, maybe someone else will want the hit point potential.
    Last edited by First Round Pick; May 7, 2013 at 2:03 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by First Round Pick View Post
    Goals are rewarded 2 per (Yandle scores more often), defensive points are an extra .5 per point (again edge Yandle). So no he doesn't need to get to Karlsson territory to be substantially ahead on points. That translates to less than 60 points he needs which he has achieved before.
    Yandle and Phaneuf have scored the same amount of goals in the past two seasons. Yandle doesn't score more goals.

    The difference would need to come from assists (which Yandle has one more in the past two seasons). You're right about the D-points - didn't take that into account. But Yandle would still need atleast 15 assists more just to be as valuable as Phaneuf is. That's a meaningful difference when talking about two D-man.

    By the way, in the past two seasons Phaneuf has 17 more PPP than Yandle has. So that further increases Phaneuf's value and I haven't even taken that into account. Yandle's PPP will continue to be moderate until Phoenix starts to score more goals.

    As for Rielly and Gardiner eating Phaneuf's point totals - could happen. But maybe Phoenix makes Rundblad as their PP-specialist next to OEL and Yandle's point totals slip because of it? OEL already emerged as their top guy and to get most out of Rundblad, they need to give him plenty of PP-time. There's also Gormley in the mix. So Phoenix has plenty of youth too. Actually, I expect Yandle to get traded at some point.
    Last edited by Carcillo; May 7, 2013 at 2:34 PM.
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    Rundblad has had guys like Stone play ahead of him all year... while the guy he was first traded for (Tarasenko) looks good obviously, then Rundblad was traded yet again for a reduced rate. I don't see him being a guy who suddenly gets it. OEL is a stud but he's getting all the defensive shut-down minutes which is hurting his point production.

    And your point of Yandle being traded, yes I agree he is a big trade candidate. Which again makes me think there's more upside to him long-term. What you've seen from Phaneuf is the best (and sometimes worst) you're going to get.

    I just personally think hits are an easier thing to replace on a team with only 7 keepers than a true offensive-minded d-man will be. But that's how I build my teams... it doesn't work for everyone.
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    Quote Originally Posted by First Round Pick View Post
    If you look at the stats from this year, hits make a 11.2 point difference. PIM's is 1.3. So nowhere near 30. So while that's significant, it's not insurmountable. Add to the fact that Toronto has Gardiner playing all year next year on the PP, and Reilly coming up, I don't see Phaneuf's totals getting any better.

    Honestly I would keep Yandle, he's performing well without any forward help (the Coyotes leading scorer!) and seems like a player with trade potential to a team needing D help with good forwards (ex. Edmonton). Watching Phaneuf make a hit and forget his defensive responsibilities is too frustrating to watch, even in fantasy.
    People keep saying this but it doesn't make any sense to me. I don't know if you've ever watched any of the three, but Gardiner and Rielly don't play a similar game to Phaneuf. In any way.

    Phaneuf is the team's number 1 dman. He's going to be as long as he's cotnracted with them. That's not going to change. He's still going to lead the team in time on ice. Gardiner and Rielly play a distributing game and a game that has them jumping up in the play. They aren't shooters like Phaneuf. In fact the Leafs only have two shooters at the point. Frason and Phaneuf. Gardiner isn't going to take that away from Phaneuf and neither is Rielly.

    If anything, Gardiner and Rielly might come into competition for time. It's much more likely that Franson's time is impacted by them coming up as you'll likely see Carlyle (or whover the coach is) split up Phaneuf and Franson onto PP1 and PP2 placing Gardiner and Rielly with them. One distibutor and one shooter on each unit.

    For all the crap Phaneuf gets, he's easily one of the most dangerous dman in the league, offensively. A few weeks ago CBC has a stat up during the broadcast and Phaneuf was second to only Shea Weber for goals scored by a dman since the 2004-2005 lockout. Consistent goal scoring dman are hard to come by. Want an example? There are only three dman to place in the top 10 in goals in the last two seasons. Phaneuf, Weber and Byfuglien. In the last four seasons, only Yandle, Burns (although that comes into question if you count half a season as a forward), Subban, Karlsson and Chara (in addition to Chara, Phaneuf and Weber) did at least twice.

    Only Weber, Phaneuf and Byfuglien did it more than twice that year, and Phaneuf likely would have joined Byfuglien and Weber doing it all four years had he not been injured in 2010-2011 (and Karlsson would have joined the group for three of the four seasons had he not been injured this year).

    In the past four seasons, Phaneuf has steadily increased his point per game pace. When he was traded (which was his lowest point in his career, both statistically and otherwise), he went from 12 goals and 32 points, to a 10 goal and 37 point pace (over 82 games), to a 12 goal and 44 point season, to this season which would have seen him get 15 goals and a 48 point pace.
    Four straight seasons of increasing point totals.

    I seriously doubt that the Leafs will just stop him from getting offensive oppurtunties. Giving him a player like Gardiner as a distributor is going to help him, not hurt him.

    Gardiner will not take time from Phaneuf.


    Alos Keith Yandle had an uncharateristical high PIM total this year. Near his career high in more than 30 less games played. It's unlikely that this is the norm. Phaneuf averages closer to a 100 a season, where Yandle averages closer to 50.

    Yandle's career high in hits is 46, and he averages closer to 30 in a normal season. Phaneuf's career low is 131, which is this year in a shortened season, and he averages closer to 200 in a season.

    And Yandle really isn't that much better of an offensive player. Same goal total in 2009-2010. Yandle had three more goals in 2010-2011 in 18 more games. Phaneuf had one more last year, and Yandle has one more this year. Almost identical in goals.

    And even in points, Yandle has only clearly beat Phaneuf twice. In 2009-2010 by 9 points, and in Yandle's outlier season in 2010-2011 with 29 more points.

    TL: DR Take Phaneuf. He's a better keeper than Yandle in the hits/PIM's category and Yandle does not have a clear point/goal advantage like many suggest. In fact history suggests that outside that one outlier season of Yandle's, that Phaneuf is on equal footing in goals/points.
    Last edited by theIceWookie; May 9, 2013 at 1:53 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by First Round Pick View Post
    Rundblad has had guys like Stone play ahead of him all year... while the guy he was first traded for (Tarasenko) looks good obviously, then Rundblad was traded yet again for a reduced rate. I don't see him being a guy who suddenly gets it. OEL is a stud but he's getting all the defensive shut-down minutes which is hurting his point production.

    And your point of Yandle being traded, yes I agree he is a big trade candidate. Which again makes me think there's more upside to him long-term. What you've seen from Phaneuf is the best (and sometimes worst) you're going to get.

    I just personally think hits are an easier thing to replace on a team with only 7 keepers than a true offensive-minded d-man will be. But that's how I build my teams... it doesn't work for everyone.
    I think you're really underestimating the difference in points. It's unlikely that Yandle could get more goals than Phaneuf (history shows that they score at identical levels) so it falls to assists for Yandle to make up the difference (which outside of one outlier season, Yandle is actually a lot closer to Phaneuf than you're letting on).

    You pointed out the 11 point difference in hits, and the 1 point difference PIM's (which in a regular season is usually a lot closer to a 5 point difference).
    Yandle would need 12 points this year to make up the difference. Which means Yandle needs to put up a 70 point pace. That's not even taking into account the 6 point difference in PP points this season, which means he needs 18 points. So he'd need to be a PPG dman.

    Let's look at last season though.

    Phaneuf - 12 goals, 44 points, 92 PIMs, 22 PPP, 214 Hits
    Yandle - 11 goals, 43 points, 51 PIMs, 11 PPP, 31 Hits

    Phaneuf - G (24), A (32), PIM (9.2), PPP (22), Hits (21.4), DPoints (22)
    Yandle - G (22), A (32), PIM (5.1), PPP (11), Hits (3.1), (DPoints (21.5)

    Total Points
    Phaneuf - 130.6
    Yandle - 94.7

    A total difference of 35.9 points. That's not small. So Carcillo was actually spot on. Over a 30 point difference.

    Phaneuf is one of the best dman to own in leagues that count more than points. Frankly it's not even close to being a contest between Yandle and Phaneuf.

    Yandle is a fine dman to own, but only after you can't get your hands on Phaneuf, in this type of league. So taking Yandle over Phaneuf would be a mistake. Especially in a points league like this. It's much easier to win a league that is H2H, by targetting hits/blocks with late draft dman. But in points H2H, you have to target the best possible player in all aspects of your league's settings. A player who contributes to all categories, will put up more points than a player that puts up just points.

    TL: DR - Phaneuf is an easy choice to keep over Yandle
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    Great arguments guys. And whether it's right or wrong, I look at the stats and the potential the player has for points first before hits and PIM's. The argument of Phaneuf having the second most goals since the lockout is including his best years early on, not later. When I watch the two of them play, I see Yandle as a big offensive guy who likes to join the rush and can get his shot off and score (four seasons in a row including the lockout year with 10 or more goals). I live in Calgary and remember Phaneuf during his Norris trophy years. He's good when he wants to be, but he makes some terrible hockey-sense decisions and hasn't gotten back to where he was with Keenan. I know that doesn't matter in fantasy hockey, but it's something important to me where I like to watch the guys I have on my team in real life.

    As for Gardiner and Reilly, what I'm saying is that they are seemingly being groomed to become the true offensive players while Phaneuf becomes the big-minutes guy playing the tougher matchups. If that happens then his numbers will decline somewhat.

    I guess I should be a GM in this league and there would be a trade made!! I'm ok with being in the minority though on this one. Just a counter argument is all.
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    In this format I would roll with Phaneuf. Both have pending threats for ice time but they will still get their points. Dion has the PIM advantage. Yandle may be traded in the summer and could prosper, but those are "coulds" and "ifs."
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    With point-system scoring... you have to do all the math.

    But normally... I'd take Phaneuf over Yandle in a league with points for HITS.
    It's a huge difference (as IceWookie lists). HUGE.

    Phaneuf is a monster-hitter.
    Yandle is one of the lightest-hitters in the entire NHL. (He plays a more Lidstrom-like game).

    Also - with Phaneuf.
    People talk about Gardiner & Reilly... but Phaneuf only has two years left on his contract in TOR. If TOR is ready to move towards the youth, they'll do that... and Phaneuf will sign somewhere that needs a big PP-shot.

    So... it's not like Phaneuf will just be relegated off the PP.
    He'll be there long-enough... and if TOR doesn't need him, then he'll find a new home.

    HITS are a very, very dependable stat.
    I invest in them whenever possible.

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    Quote Originally Posted by First Round Pick View Post
    As for Gardiner and Reilly, what I'm saying is that they are seemingly being groomed to become the true offensive players while Phaneuf becomes the big-minutes guy playing the tougher matchups. If that happens then his numbers will decline somewhat.
    Pretty clear pick for Phaneuf here as well. The fact that he is in Toronto has surprisingly made him underrated. How often does that happen?

    To the above point, I'm fairly confident that Phaneuf was playing big-minutes against tougher matchups all season and still managed to match and exceed Yandles totals, so that argument doesn't really hold.

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