Offseason keeper planning

[cdubb]

Thanks for all the advice received on the board this year. Right now am leading the finals of one of my new keeper leagues (hopefully will hold on to win).

We're allowed to make trades in offseason, so looking for advice on who I should try to trade to upgrade keepers or get picks.

We get to keep a player's current position eligibility season to season.

H2H 10 team limited keeper (12 + 3 prospects) Year 1, Weekly moves
G, A, P, PPP, SHP, SOG, GWG, +/-, PIM, HIT, BLK, FOW-C, W, SHO, GAA, SAVE%

C: Boyes (RW), Roy, Steen (LW), Cammalleri (LW), Berglund, Cullen
RW: Perry, MSL, Semin (RW) Williams, Doan
LW: Neal (RW), Parise, Hartnell, Marleau, Clune
D: Chara, Byfuglien, Letang, Phaneuf, Boyle, Burns (RW), Muzzin
G: Rask, Niemi, Bobrovsky
Prospects: Granlund, Grigorenko, Niedereiter, Khudobin

Definite Keepers (9):
F - Perry (RW), Neal (LW/RW), Parise (LW), MSL (RW)
D - Chara, Letang, Phaneuf, Byfuglien
G - Rask

Bubble for last 3 spots:
- Hartnell (LW) - down season but expect decent pims/hits/goals next year (don't expect repeat of 2011-12 season)
- Semin (LW/RW) - maybe most upside, will be playing next to Staal for years, dual eligible
- Marleau (LW) - hot start to season, IF he sticks in SJ will always be on good line
- Burns (D/RW) - valuable if he sticks at forward next year & can roster at D, but already have 4 keeper Dmen
- Niemi - been top 10 goalie last 3 years (top ranked goalie this year)
- Bobrovsky - vezina candidate (2nd ranked goalie this year)

There might be a few goalies available to draft in first round next year, but leaning towards keeping Niemi (having consistent stud goalies helped me finish 7-1-1 in regular season this year) so I can draft best C available or prospect. Rask actually is only ranked as 4th best goalie, but will keep him given his team situation.

Then it's deciding between Hartnell, Semin, and Marleau for last 2 spots.

Will try to trade Burns and Bob to teams looking for scoring D or goalies.

[Carter]

My 2 cents:

Keep Niemi for sure. That gives you 10. You mention there might be some goalies available in the draft, probably doubtful none better than Niemi.

Then keep Semin and Hartnell to get you to 12. Semin is solid of course and I like his linemates. Also Hartnell is money in your setup.

Trade Bob , Burns, and Marleau


You can probably cash in some serious value in moving Bobrovsky.

[bizzl]

For me, your last three are Hartnell, Burns and Niemi. Being able to move Bobrovsky for a high pick or something is a fantastic option, and there should be a taker. Going into the season with Rask and Niemi means you won't have to address a 3rd goalie until quite late in the draft, which is always great.

Before Burns got switched to RW he was an obvious drop, but he has been fantastic there and his eligibility at D makes him hugely valuable. I think he will easily turn into a 40 point winger, with room for 50-55 which makes him a top-10 fantasy defenseman. The fact that you have 4 keeper D's already doesn't really matter as far as I'm concerned, because it just means that you can focus entirely on getting some big guns up front and ignore the runs on goalies and defensemen.

Hartnell has been a big bust this year, but he was something like the 4th most valuable forward overall last year. I agree with you that he probably won't do that again, but he's always been a great multi-cat guy. You've got a few others that will help in that area as well (Phaneuf, Perry, Chara) and having Hartnell as well means that you can draft pure scorers while other guys are loading up on multi-cat guys.

Of the prospects I'd drop Khudobin. You are set in goal, and it's not like these guys are old or anything so there's no reason to think that you won't be able to roll with Rask and Niemi for the next 5 years.

[cdubb]

Before Burns got switched to RW he was an obvious drop, but he has been fantastic there and his eligibility at D makes him hugely valuable. I think he will easily turn into a 40 point winger, with room for 50-55 which makes him a top-10 fantasy defenseman. The fact that you have 4 keeper D's already doesn't really matter as far as I'm concerned, because it just means that you can focus entirely on getting some big guns up front and ignore the runs on goalies and defensemen.

Repped both of you guys.

Yah Burns actually has 18 pts (9G, 9 A), 68 sog, and 43 hits in 23 games at forward this year.

Will be tough to decide between him and Semin (44 pts in 44 games as my 2nd leading point getter) and Hartnell's multi-cat potential.

[CT-Chill]

I would definitely keep Niemi as your 10th, and this is probably where I deviate a bit from what you've read so far as responses..
I would try to upgrade your keepers before deciding to keep players like Semin and Harts. I would definitely try to move MSL and Boyle.. Age is becoming a factor more and more; not taking away from MSL, he's amazing, but his value is amazing this year and I would see you benefiting way more from selling high on him to potentially land yourself a solid center keeper, perhaps someone who owns Toews, or Kopitar, or Eric Staal would be willing to give them up for the assist machine that is MSL. I see an increase of stats almost across the board from hits, BkS, and shots (exception being Anze) when comparing MSL to the 3 centers. Having Neal, Perry, and Parise as your keeper wingers is pretty damn good, and while the wing is definitely more difficult to fill long term than center, I feel like you could get good return for MSL in terms of a top 10 center with age being less of a factor.
With regards to Boyle, you might as well shop him because keeping him with your current d-men really doesn't make much sense.

[cdubb]

Yah, I have tried to trade for a C upgrade all season. Will try again in offseason.

In my league since we count FOW as a stat, the Fantrax player ratings typically overvalue C relative to wingers and especially Dmen (only 5 players in the top 25 skaters without any FOW - OV, Kunitz, Perry, P.Kane, Nash; and notably last year S.Weiss was 16th ranked skater while Karlsson was only 28th).

Other GMs don't seem to realize that good goaltending and having a ton of offensive dmen (we start 6) allowed me to go 7-1-1 this season despite my crappy C rotation and punting FOW all year. Maybe winning it all will convince them that Burns/Boyle and Bobrovsky have trade value.

I understand concerns about MSL's age (think its reason why I was able to draft him 9th round) but he's in a good situation with Stamkos and is pretty fit for his age.

http://blogimages.thescore.com/nhl/f...uis-ripped.jpg

But if I can get a top C for him will consider it.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

If Burns keeps playing wing and has eligibility at D, he is a stone cold home run. You can't ignore that massive upside possibility, so he's a must-keep for me.

Semin is a must-keep... I don't understand how he's not on your list already.

The real issue here for me is that you're asking about who to fit into three bubble spots when I think you've possibly missed the mark on your distribution of players in the first place. How many do you start at each position?

Regardless, I don't see it being a very good strategic decision to be using 4/12 roster spots to protect D, especially when your forward keepers are so weak in a few places.

I'd be looking to trade TWO of Chara, Letang, Phaneuf, Byfuglien for help at forward and G. In a limited keeper, it is almost always harder to get good talent at F than D. While D might have the higher TRUE value, they can usually be drafted or acquired through trade for less than their true worth.

I'd look at your keepers along these lines:

Absolute keepers (5):
F - Perry (RW), Neal (LW/RW), Parise (LW),
D - Burns
G - Rask

Turn into fewer bodies (10 down to 7):
F - MSL (RW), Semin (LW/RW), Hartnell (LW/RW)
D - Two of Chara, Letang, Phaneuf, Byfuglien, Boyle
G - Niemi, Bobrovsky

You should be able to consolidate those 10 players down into better options, and keep the best spread that leaves your keepers looking roughly like

F - 7 - all wingers unless they're great on FOW, a definite weakness of your team
D - 3 - all with solid hits, blocks, shots to go with good scoring
G - 2

For me, the D I wouldn't part with are Phaneuf and Letang. The rest are big names and should provide more help up front. I'd bank on a nice rebound from Hartnell and continued production from Semin, but if you can use them as pieces to get better players on your roster then power to you.

[cdubb]

If Burns keeps playing wing and has eligibility at D, he is a stone cold home run. You can't ignore that massive upside possibility, so he's a must-keep for me.

The real issue here for me is that you're asking about who to fit into three bubble spots when I think you've possibly missed the mark on your distribution of players in the first place. How many do you start at each position?

Regardless, I don't see it being a very good strategic decision to be using 4/12 roster spots to protect D, especially when your forward keepers are so weak in a few places.

We start 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 2G each week.

I agree my C are weak, but with my wingers/dmen I finished top 3 in scoring categories (was leading most of year until Neal/Letang were hurt, Parise slumped).

First time playing in a league with hits/bs so used the HPG tool in preseason, and offensive multicat dmen (Letang, Byfuglien, Chara, Phaneuf) had top 20 rankings and drafted/traded accordingly. (Normally in daily moves league I play only 2 or 3/4 dmen spots).

Other teams either have scoring dmen that don't get peripherals, or plugs that just get hits/bs.

I knew I was considering keeping a high proportion of Dmen, and had many good ones and tried to trade one for a top C all year to no avail. I actually traded away Suter/Yandle/Green during the season because knew they weren't keepers for me.

Traded for Burns just as a playoff reinforcement, and he's put up good scoring totals at forward but surprised you have him as a must keep. Guess 50+ pts in dman slot is very good.

Was hoping for a big season from Byfuglien (put up 347 sog previously) but injuries/family death made him underachieve, but he has similar/more offensive upside as Burns?

I favoured MSL over Semin because playing with a better C (Stamkos vs Staal) and there are concerns about Semin's motivation after getting big contract and history of underachieving.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

I guess I just see a bigger gap between Burns at potentially 50-60 points than the rest of your dmen and what your forwards are vs what they could be. Maybe he's not a must-keep, but he's a strong keep.

Regardless, I think the balance of your keepers is poor. Just because those multicat producing Dmen are the best producers doesn't mean they're the best keepers.

I'm going to write that again: just because those multicat producing Dmen are the best producers doesn't mean they're the best keepers.

I almost always keep strong forwards and draft or trade for strong D, because most GMs fail to appreciate the true value of D.

You want to look at it as: if I keep these guys, who can I draft? And who can I trade for? You're looking to use your keepers as a strategic stepping stone to having the best producing roster next year... keeping the best "true value" players isn't always the best way to do that.

[agoodburn]

Niemi, Semin and Hartnell. Cash in on Bobs, and Burns if you can.

[Shoeless]

Absolute trade bait = Rask. Think about it.

He will draw the largest return in trade - Niemi and Bobrovsky had in several cats better numbers than him and will more than adequately hold down start 2 weekly slots.

Start with dangling him and then see what you have at the end of the deal - a very good forward and a pick of note would be a nice return in this league.

[Jammin1390]

too drunk blah blah blah

[Jammin1390]

Best thing to do is to try and trade players that have the intangibles that work for real hockey and are on fire in fantasy hockey terms away, ie a veteran who is a presence in the locker room and on the ice.

Next, 5 year upside? in fantasy hockey? too many freak accidents and trades make this a pointless endeavour. Will you even be in this league? will the player decide to retire and not resign at 35 People where writing off steve mason and now he is viable sleeper/dark horse. Mike Ribeiro? try a 1-3yr projection with some "what if factors" Like what if Chris Kunitz plays with one of the best players in 20 years and learns how to play the game again? or what if the flames become the last years panthers? could cammy hit 80 pts again?

In a league that starts 2 G with ten teams, keeping 3 goalies is meh, because if the best available player by a long shot is a goalie do you take him or pass because you already have 3 starters and need centers?

Cammalleri - if you believe in the flames... lol
Steen
Boyes - assuming he resigns
Muzzin
Williams
Doan

are all players i would rather keep and trade away the big name but sorta iffy fringe players you have for even draft picks.