Matt Dumba's Drop in Production

[ShawneePanthers]

Last year he had 57 pts in 69 games, this year has seen a massive drop-off in points to 22 in 62 games. Granted, his +/- has increased from -6 to 10 so this might mean that he's focusing more on defense now (which isn't good for his fantasy value). Anyone seen him play or with more information on why he's dropped off?

[SeaDawg]

A few things...

First, Dumba actually has 42 pts in 62 games (not 22 pts)

Second, that still puts him 3rd on his team in scoring.

Third, the top point-getter on his team only has 59 pts, so he is not that far behind.

Fourth, Red Deer is one of the lowest scoring teams in the WHL, only scoring 208 goals all season.

The drop off in production is not shocking when you look at the numbers more closely.

[Onetimer]

I feel that as with a lot of young defencemen that they are asked to work on defence when they are sent back to junior. They focus so much on defence that they forget to use what got them to be a high pick. I think Dumba will be fine and be a leader in the Nhl and is a good sign that he is working on his defensive play...

[SeaDawg]

A bit more on Dumba...he is an impressive talent. I see him as a potential multi-cat stud in the future, similar to Phaneuf. He does have 80 PIMs this season (second most on his team). He may not score a ton of points in the NHL, but if he continues to develop as some think he will, I can see him put up 100 PIMs and 40-45 pts in the NHL someday, plus lots of Shots and Hits. He may take a while to get there, though, so don't expect him to put up those numbers right away.

[ShawneePanthers]

Well, the drop in production is not that significant when you look at the correct stats (42 vs 22). Eliteprospects.com has him listed as 22, so I was going by that.

[SeaDawg]

ah...I don't trust the stats on eliteprospects...I find they are often incorrect

[metaldude26]

Even at the junior level defenseman scoring can fluctuate quite a bit. I wouldn't be too concerned about the point drop. The biggest concern with Dumba is whether he's going to be able to play a complete game at the pro level. If his scoring is down you hope it's because he's focusing on becoming more well-rounded but I haven't seen him this year.

[mugien]

He's been a steady threat in every game I've seen him play in this season. Pinching in at opportune moments, back checking defensively, playing body - and hard. I think he's actually scored in every game I've been to.

[The Comish]

He's been a steady threat in every game I've seen him play in this season. Pinching in at opportune moments, back checking defensively, playing body - and hard. I think he's actually scored in every game I've been to.

Thanks for this post. I drafted Dumba for his "Phaneuf-like" roto potential and while he didn't make the WJHC team, to me, he acquitted himself with a good showing at the Wild camp this year. You need to go to more games!!