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Thread: Advice for the home stretch!

  1. #1
    The Guvnah's Avatar
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    Default Advice for the home stretch!

    Looking for advice here, Dobberites. In my one-year roto league, I'm currently in third place. I unwittingly missed the trade deadline, so I'm left to free agency to improve my team. It's been a three horse race most of the season, and first is within striking distance, especially since the guy in second is going to have to dial it back or he'll hit his games played limit before the end of the season. My goalie situation is not good right now, but there's absolutely nothing available in free agency so I'll just have to live with it. I'm under on my defensemen's games played and slightly over on my forwards, so I've loaded up a little bit on d-men. My team is weak in PIM, SOG, SHP, W & SO, and pretty strong in all other cats.

    Here's my team & scoring cats:

    15 teams
    G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, Hits, W, GAA, PCT, SO
    3C, 3LW, 3RW, 6D, 1Util, 2G

    C - Crosby, Ribeiro, Laich, Little (RW)
    LW - Kunitz, Eriksson (RW), Saad, Stalberg
    RW - Backes (C), Wheeler, Alfredsson, Gallagher, Stafford, Kopecky
    D - Pietrangelo, Shattenkirk, Voynov, Souray, Wiercioch, Methot, Hjalmarsson, Morris
    G - Bishop, Hedberg, Anderson (IR), Ward (IR)

    Notable FA's:
    Hansen, Crombeen, Brassard, Orr, Conacher, McLeod, Clune, Letestu, Stajan, Shaw, Zibanejad, Antropov, Matthias, Cooke, Palmeiri, Sobotka, Fehr, M. Weber, M. Stuart, Clitsome, Ellerby, Ellis, Gleason.

    Sooo, do I stand pat and hope for the best or is there anything incredibly clever that I can do that will make me look like a genius at the end of the season?

    10th year Keeper League, Fantrax

    14 teams, H2H, keep 10, daily starts
    G (3), A (2), +/- (1), PIM (0.1), PPP (1), FOW (0.1), FOL (-0.1), BLK (0.5), HAT (3), W (5), SO (3), SV (0.1), GA (-0.5)

    C (3) - Schmaltz (LW, RW), Mercer (RW), Norris (IR), Domi (LW), T. Johnson (RW), Nosek (LW)
    LW (3) - Keller (RW), Hagel, McCann (C), Zacha (LW), Kubalik (RW), N. Foligno (IR)
    RW (3) - Fiala (LW), Vilardi (C), Ehlers (LW), Kakko
    D (4) - Theodore, Orlov, Grzelcyk, T. van Riemsdyk, Clifton, Skjei, Weegar
    Util (1)
    G (1) - Montembault, Allen, Halak



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    Quote Originally Posted by The Guvnah View Post
    Looking for advice here, Dobberites. In my one-year roto league, I'm currently in third place. I unwittingly missed the trade deadline, so I'm left to free agency to improve my team. It's been a three horse race most of the season, and first is within striking distance, especially since the guy in second is going to have to dial it back or he'll hit his games played limit before the end of the season. My goalie situation is not good right now, but there's absolutely nothing available in free agency so I'll just have to live with it. I'm under on my defensemen's games played and slightly over on my forwards, so I've loaded up a little bit on d-men. My team is weak in PIM, SOG, SHP, W & SO, and pretty strong in all other cats.

    Here's my team & scoring cats:

    15 teams
    G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, Hits, W, GAA, PCT, SO
    3C, 3LW, 3RW, 6D, 1Util, 2G

    C - Crosby, Ribeiro, Laich, Little (RW)
    LW - Kunitz, Eriksson (RW), Saad, Stalberg
    RW - Backes (C), Wheeler, Alfredsson, Gallagher, Stafford, Kopecky
    D - Pietrangelo, Shattenkirk, Voynov, Souray, Wiercioch, Methot, Hjalmarsson, Morris
    G - Bishop, Hedberg, Anderson (IR), Ward (IR)

    Notable FA's:
    Hansen, Crombeen, Brassard, Orr, Conacher, McLeod, Clune, Letestu, Stajan, Shaw, Zibanejad, Antropov, Matthias, Cooke, Palmeiri, Sobotka, Fehr, M. Weber, M. Stuart, Clitsome, Ellerby, Ellis, Gleason.

    Sooo, do I stand pat and hope for the best or is there anything incredibly clever that I can do that will make me look like a genius at the end of the season?
    Well, do you have max games played in this roto league? Huge factor in giving advice here.

    Edit - sorry I see you do by your reference. Okay here's what you do - set up a spreadsheet to calculate points per game played in each category for all the teams in your league and then you project an expected finish if everyone utilizes their allotted games - if it looks like you project to win, probably not worry too much - if it looks like you won't then analyze the categories to determine where you can gain ground being mindful of not exposing strong positions to fall back by moving assets that will protect your position.

    seem like a lot of work? It's what good roto managers do every day of the season.
    Last edited by Shoeless; March 24, 2013 at 10:17 AM.

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    bluejays's Avatar
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    I'D grab Shaw, Chi has had back to back 2-2 week games, and is under the radar.
    Drop Kopecky or any of your bottom D which suck.
    I wouldn't waste my time with the rest.

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    If you don't want to go to that extent then I wouldn't spend much time on the guy in second - he's toast if it's that close anyway.

    Don't be afraid at this stage to float back off the pace a little in games played for foward but keep up your D games if you can at least within 4 games off the pace.

    Are you in Yahoo by any chance? I can show you a trick to get more games played in than the max.

    It's really hard to look at the daily standings and realize that it isn't true picture of the real situation - you have to discipline yourself not to reach in terms of starting guys in bad match-ups when you want to grab an extra goal or an assist. It's equally hard to remain philosophical when you bench a guy and he has a good game in spite of the match up - that's the way it goes - all you need is about 65% good benchings to come out ahead.

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    Another thing I do in a situation like yours is go into HPG and set up the league and every couple of days run a player ranking with the new games to date and keep each file and compare change in players rankings to see who is heating up in the league - Clune would be one I think is jumping up quickly in your league. This just gives you a little more sophisticated information to base decisions on. It doesn't tell you what to do but gives you a deeper feel for the moves you might make.

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    The Guvnah's Avatar
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    Yes, it's a Yahoo league. I'm not really worried about the guy in second, it's the guy in first that bothers me. He had a great night three nights ago and gained like 8 points to knock me out of first. If I can find some time, I will definitely do that spreadsheet exercise. Thanks for the advice!

    10th year Keeper League, Fantrax

    14 teams, H2H, keep 10, daily starts
    G (3), A (2), +/- (1), PIM (0.1), PPP (1), FOW (0.1), FOL (-0.1), BLK (0.5), HAT (3), W (5), SO (3), SV (0.1), GA (-0.5)

    C (3) - Schmaltz (LW, RW), Mercer (RW), Norris (IR), Domi (LW), T. Johnson (RW), Nosek (LW)
    LW (3) - Keller (RW), Hagel, McCann (C), Zacha (LW), Kubalik (RW), N. Foligno (IR)
    RW (3) - Fiala (LW), Vilardi (C), Ehlers (LW), Kakko
    D (4) - Theodore, Orlov, Grzelcyk, T. van Riemsdyk, Clifton, Skjei, Weegar
    Util (1)
    G (1) - Montembault, Allen, Halak



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    My intuition is telling me you are carrying 1 too many D guys and you might want to get a forward in there that opens up your line-up options - although you have a pretty big bench it seems (6?) so maybe that's a non-issue.

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Guvnah View Post
    Yes, it's a Yahoo league. I'm not really worried about the guy in second, it's the guy in first that bothers me. He had a great night three nights ago and gained like 8 points to knock me out of first. If I can find some time, I will definitely do that spreadsheet exercise. Thanks for the advice!
    Yeah the actual formulas are pretty simple once you figure out a set-up. I just go into the full standings and copy the overall stats and past it in as text to the spreadsheet, create a spread between the data to allow for the ppgp calculation and then copy the formula down from the day before to run the numbers - takes me about 5-10 minutes a day including analysis of change and relative positioning. But I am a bit of a geek that way, I love roto max games leagues and enjoy playing with the numbers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shoeless View Post
    My intuition is telling me you are carrying 1 too many D guys and you might want to get a forward in there that opens up your line-up options - although you have a pretty big bench it seems (6?) so maybe that's a non-issue.
    Yeah, I actually dropped Conacher recently to pick up Hjalmarsson just because I've been leaving so many forwards on my bench lately while I have a lot of D-men games to burn.

    10th year Keeper League, Fantrax

    14 teams, H2H, keep 10, daily starts
    G (3), A (2), +/- (1), PIM (0.1), PPP (1), FOW (0.1), FOL (-0.1), BLK (0.5), HAT (3), W (5), SO (3), SV (0.1), GA (-0.5)

    C (3) - Schmaltz (LW, RW), Mercer (RW), Norris (IR), Domi (LW), T. Johnson (RW), Nosek (LW)
    LW (3) - Keller (RW), Hagel, McCann (C), Zacha (LW), Kubalik (RW), N. Foligno (IR)
    RW (3) - Fiala (LW), Vilardi (C), Ehlers (LW), Kakko
    D (4) - Theodore, Orlov, Grzelcyk, T. van Riemsdyk, Clifton, Skjei, Weegar
    Util (1)
    G (1) - Montembault, Allen, Halak



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