Backstrom or Duchene?

[gainerama]

In a multi cat salary league, who would you prefer on your team for the long haul?

[Essej]

Backstrom, I just believe he has a greater ceiling of points. He's underperforming right now and still putting up somewhat respectable numbers, he's capable of much more.

[pretsel27]

Backstrom had his "show me the money" year back in 09-10 and his only 30+ goal 100+ pts season. At that time, WSH was an offensive powerhouse as well. To me, he is more of a playmaker but im sure he can create his own offense w/o AO. Unless WSH adds more offensive help for Backstrom to play with, I cant justify the $6.5 to $8M he will be making starting next year. I think he settles for 70-80 pts moving onwards.

Duchene, on the other hand- very talented as well. Creates his own offense. But in a COL system that will probably roll w/ 3 even scoring lines. I dont see him anywhere close to what Backstrom has done in regards to a career year. But I think he settles in for 35 G 40 A - tops. Therefore, i dont think he will demand more than $6 once his $3.75M is up in a couple years.

With that said, IMO..i think they will pretty much even out in career stats. BOth are talented first line players and will be given all at the opportunity to succeed. They both also have yellow flags as well in regards to injury risk.

So in a salary cap league, id take Duchene for now and the future in thinking that he will be as talented and put up similar #'s onwards. But will probably save a fantasy team $2-3M in salary cap space that could very well be an additional top line player or depth player/etc.

[4horsemen]

Backstrom had his "show me the money" year back in 09-10 and his only 30+ goal 100+ pts season. At that time, WSH was an offensive powerhouse as well. To me, he is more of a playmaker but im sure he can create his own offense w/o AO. Unless WSH adds more offensive help for Backstrom to play with, I cant justify the $6.5 to $8M he will be making starting next year. I think he settles for 70-80 pts moving onwards.

Duchene, on the other hand- very talented as well. Creates his own offense. But in a COL system that will probably roll w/ 3 even scoring lines. I dont see him anywhere close to what Backstrom has done in regards to a career year. But I think he settles in for 35 G 40 A - tops. Therefore, i dont think he will demand more than $6 once his $3.75M is up in a couple years.

With that said, IMO..i think they will pretty much even out in career stats. BOth are talented first line players and will be given all at the opportunity to succeed. They both also have yellow flags as well in regards to injury risk.

So in a salary cap league, id take Duchene for now and the future in thinking that he will be as talented and put up similar #'s onwards. But will probably save a fantasy team $2-3M in salary cap space that could very well be an additional top line player or depth player/etc.

Solid analysis and I buy into most of it except for Duchene topping out at 75 points, his skill level puts his ceiling considerably higher than 75. I'd expect him to put up some PPG seasons during his career and possibly top out somewhere in the high 80s low 90s.

Hits and blocks - pretty much a wash between these two (slight edge to Backstrom in the past but I think we'll see Duchene's hit total rise so going forward I give the edge to Duchene)
PIM - neither will do much in this category (edge to Backstrom in the past but Duchene is finding a bit more grit to his game so I see it as only a slight edge to Backstrom going forward)
Points are a wash from here on out (Backstrom's big seasons were the product of an offensive juggernaut that we won't likely see again. I see both these guys as PPG players)
FO% - Duchene is getting better and better at the draw (edge to Duchene)
+/- I hate to guess on this as it's such a team stat
SOG - Definitely Duchene

[pretsel27]

Solid analysis and I buy into most of it except for Duchene topping out at 75 points, his skill level puts his ceiling considerably higher than 75. I'd expect him to put up some PPG seasons during his career and possibly top out somewhere in the high 80s low 90s.

lol, yeah i was being conservative and holding back on my man crush on Duchene. We'd need to see COL surround Duchene w/ elite scoring wingers. Not sure if PAP, Jones, McGinn, Downie would help elevate his game to warrant a 80-90pt projections

ie. How AO elevated Backstrom's game and vice versa. How Jagr/Hartnell elevated Giroux's game and vice versa.

But im all for it if Duchene averages out in the 80-90's. Wait and see I guess. And stay healthy!

[4horsemen]

lol, yeah i was being conservative and holding back on my man crush on Duchene. We'd need to see COL surround Duchene w/ elite scoring wingers. Not sure if PAP, Jones, McGinn, Downie would help elevate his game to warrant a 80-90pt projections

ie. How AO elevated Backstrom's game and vice versa. How Jagr/Hartnell elevated Giroux's game and vice versa.

But im all for it if Duchene averages out in the 80-90's. Wait and see I guess. And stay healthy!

Yeah, I'm not making the statement based on his current situation, only his skill set. I try not to let situation enter into long term projections (eg. I think Seguin has elite 90+ talent but we won't see it based on the current Boston configuration).

[Front89]

I'd have to give the slight edge to Duchene, but agree it is based more on potential than actual production so far...I'm also hedging that Backstrom will slip a bit due to the team dynamic in WASH going downhill....

[teamplayer7]

I always find it interesting how short peoples memory is in Fantasy

Backstrom
Backstrom is only 2 seasons out of 100 pt season, very few people in todays hockey is capable of this and Caps are one player short of that success again
In KHL, Backs and OV started very slow and had very little points in first 10 games then turned it on bigtime to be in top scorers. Wash has $$$ and Kuznetsov and Forsberg coming in near future. Look how low Malkins value has fallen in past only to be backed up with MVP. Backs is still just a kid.

Money
Backstrom earns 6M for next two seasons, not 6-8M quoted (very big difference)
Duch Earns 4M next season, and will at least be making 6.5M after if not just bc O'Reilly was given 6.5m next season....just at the time Duch will be ready to sign.

Duch
Excellent player that has tons of potential but potential doesnt get bills paid, and will have to show me something before I would put him in same category as a Crosby, OV, Malkin, Backstrom...All these people have accomplish much more at Duch age and Backs is very very young still with potential that has already accomplished.

Vertict, long term (going fwd like asked for)

6.5M Elite 100point player, Large Size, playing with OV, and keeps OV and Backs on for majority of PP VS 6.5M 67point player with upside of 80points, Med Size, playing with Landeskog but much more depth at center (O'Reilly return factor) on team that roles 3-4 lines

INO - Both are great players and would love to own both. Don't trade Backstrom for Duch unless you like gambling. Trade someone else for Duch or at least get another player in the deal

[4horsemen]

I always find it interesting how short peoples memory is in Fantasy

I always find it interesting when people chose to believe that one past outlier defines a player going forward. The 09-10 version of the Washington Capitals was something to behold. They had two players crack the 100 point plateau and two others break the PPG mark.....one of them being a d-man!!! That team was an elite offensive juggernaut and Backstrom was a big part of it but those days are over.

If you remove that one outlier then Backstrom has been roughly a PPG player. Now that's very, very good production and absolutely nothing should be taken away from his play but expectations have to remain realistic going forward and those people who chose to hark back to days gone by, insisting that he can be a 100 point guy should join my league so I can see you Green as a PPG d-man

I can see your point that taking Backstrom (a proven PPG player) over Duchene (a guy who's just starting to touch his full potential) is a bit of a gamble but you lost me with your comments that Backstrom is an Elite 100 point guy while calling Duchene a 67 point player.

Duchene had 67 points his 2nd year in the league on a low scoring team where he was far and away their best player!! Backstrom, on the other hand, scored 88 points in his 2nd year on a powerhouse washington team playing alongside Ovechkin and Semin........big difference. If you correct these stats for team scoring you'll find very similar production. Duchene's 3rd year was a complete write-off and should really be ignored. What we're seeing this year is him continuing his development from where he left off at the end of his 2nd season and he's been a better player than Backstom this year hands down.

[Axeman33]

I like Duchene but theres no way I would trade Backstrom for him straight up.

Backstrom for me.