The insidiousness of Mike Green

[norrisdivision]

Just putting this out there...

When you have a contending fantasy team, at some point in the season your keeper league becomes more of a one-year league. Productivity today becomes more important than projections in order to put your team over the top in the short term. Reaching that point involves making some decisions that you wouldn’t normally consider. But while the strategic win-now mode that you are in pushes for short term gains, the keeper league manager in you is still lingering in the back of your mind telling you that you are crazy for considering such foolishness. Case in point, Mike Green.

Green is still considered to be a top-10 D-man in the league, and so in a full keeper league like mine, he would be labelled by most as undroppable. This, despite the fact that he’s had two full injury-riddled seasons and now again finds himself day-to-day with an LBI. Oh, he’ll be back soon. Really. And for how long? As the readers of this forum know well, his past and current injury problems have left his trade value at an all-time low. He is virtually untradeable, unless you can find a Green fan in your pool that has always longed to own him and is willing to pay something for him almost purely for sentimental reasons (and maybe a little hope). Truth be known though, when healthy he’s still an above-average fantasy option. Sorry – IF healthy.

So what exactly defines a waiver wire player? The definition is definitely more complicated for a keeper league than it is for a one-year. But essentially, it’s someone who carries no trade value and offers no additional value to your team above those currently on your roster. But in win-now mode, even on a keeper league team, does Mike Green not at least marginally fit this definition? Rolling a daily roto spot in his place has some merit. Even doing the responsible thing and scouting D replacements that provide some value beyond this season (albeit not with Green's upside), I could pick up Cody Franson or John Carlson (heck even Dougie Hamilton at ten minutes a night is putting up similar numbers right now) and expect similar production as Green this season. Should they stay healthy and continue to progress, why would each of their trade values not improve as the season rolls along, while Green’s will likely continue to remain stagnant? And hey, at the end of the day at least they’re playing.

In trying to put my team over the top to become a championship squad, I’m finding fewer and fewer reasons to let Green ride pine just because I can’t find a trading partner. And while it may be true that he will most definitely be scooped off the wire soon after he hits it, my initial response to that is “better your problem than mine”. Are we blinded by Green’s storied past in clinging to him as though he’s a new coach away from another 75-point season? Because a new coach isn’t a new knee or a new groin. The glory days appear to be gone, a reality that’s reaffirmed with each passing freshly diagnosed LBI. His decline has been insidious, and I think many of us are in denial. True that you don't need to be a point-per-game defenceman to be worthy of a fantasy team roster spot, but I would argue that most championship fantasy teams are not home to many superstar band-aid boys either. Do you want your team to just look good on paper or do you want to win?

[kbro]

The Green of old is certainly long gone. I'm not so sure I would drop him though, as he is still productive when healthy. You're right that there are times when you have to think "win-now", but in a sensible view that at least spans the length of the season. I doubt you'll be able to shuffle in and out waiver-wire defenseman to match his production on the season unless you get really lucky.

I actually jus traded for Green in my league (semi-keeper only though)... I gave up Souray and a 15th for his Green and 11th. You're not going to get much. I think the only thing to do is wait, at least for now.

[lucifer316]

if green misses substantial time it will be quite easy to match his production running players in and out of the lineup

i am getting closer and closer to dumping his ass my damn self

i have had him on the block since he started producing and not a single query

hell i likely would have sold him reasonably low just to get him the hell off my roster

but like me i think everyone else feels green should be some other guys problem

[TeamRamrod]

What happened to the "Mike Green's Douchiness" thread? Wasn't it closing in on 500 posts?

[wendelclark17]

If someone was so inclined I would be really interested to see what percentage of the points Green got in his two 70+ pt seasons also included Ovechkin and Backstrom as scorers (assists or goals). If Ovechkin and Backstrom don't get back to their ppg+ levels I would contend its hopeless to expect Green to get more than 40-45 if healthy. Also I think in one of those 70+ pt seasons green had 30+ power play points which is an outlier. (Checked and in 09-10 he had 35 of 76 points on the PP)

For the OP - Bottom line is this, if dropping Green gives you a good chance at winning, and you aren't dropping him for someone like Andy Greene, I wouldn't hesitate much.

[metaldude26]

Mods! Merge!

[Puppage]

What happened to the "Mike Green's Douchiness" thread? Wasn't it closing in on 500 posts?

Haha yes this should definitely be merged with that thread, after all, this title is just a more polite way of saying that Mike Green is a douche.

[lucifer316]

isnt this about mike green the fantasy player

i thought the douche thread was about mike green the human being

if so they shouldnt be merged imo

[Millhouse]

If someone was so inclined I would be really interested to see what percentage of the points Green got in his two 70+ pt seasons also included Ovechkin and Backstrom as scorers (assists or goals). If Ovechkin and Backstrom don't get back to their ppg+ levels I would contend its hopeless to expect Green to get more than 40-45 if healthy. Also I think in one of those 70+ pt seasons green had 30+ power play points which is an outlier. (Checked and in 09-10 he had 35 of 76 points on the PP)

For the OP - Bottom line is this, if dropping Green gives you a good chance at winning, and you aren't dropping him for someone like Andy Greene, I wouldn't hesitate much.

I think Green will be hard pressed to get 30 points. The team just downright does not score. Factor in he is a BAB, his points will continue to suffer

[cdubb]

Yah I gave up on him (drafted him very late) couple weeks ago..

Traded Brunner, Green, Backstrom (min)
For
Phaneuf, Briere, Bobrovsky (dropped)

League counts hits/bs so Phaneuf had value despite his one point then (8 pts since)

[norrisdivision]

I think Green will be hard pressed to get 30 points. The team just downright does not score. Factor in he is a BAB, his points will continue to suffer

That's what I'm saying brother.

[SeaDawg]

For the OP - Bottom line is this, if dropping Green gives you a good chance at winning, and you aren't dropping him for someone like Andy Greene, I wouldn't hesitate much.

I don't know if I agree with this...

...I mean, I could see Andy Greene outpoint Mike Green this season.

[bumchilly25]

I wonder how many of Green's owners have actually watched him play this season? Reason I ask is, I owned him during the glory years. He was pretty unreal. I held onto him during his injury plagued years, and kept hoping he'd return to that form.

I read all the reports this off season about how healthy he was, and how great he felt. Whatever. Proof's in the pudding. I decided I'd watch him play. I've got Centre Ice, so I made a point of watching a bunch of the Caps games early on.

He plays a lot. He gets a lot of PP time. He is NOT anywhere close to the same player. And now, to top it off, his injury troubles are returning. I'd advise any owner who still holds out hope that this guy will ever approach the point per game fantasy days of the past to just let go.

[Achilles]

Just let go? Yes, but only if you're getting a Dman that can reliably produce at a 45 pt pace.

The "glory days" are likely gone, but I for one am not ready to give up on a 60pt pace. Is Ovechkin really a 70 point player? Can the Caps not turn things around? Don't forget that Oates did not have a training camp. He had mere days to prep for the season.

I'm holding on to Green, though my expectations are lower. If he doesn't improve after 4-6 weeks in to next season, then we can call him drop-worthy.

[wendelclark17]

I think Green will be hard pressed to get 30 points. The team just downright does not score. Factor in he is a BAB, his points will continue to suffer

I was talking over a full season, top-end if healthy ..... Having said that 30 is probably more realistic. I remember the days when Green was talked about as a top 5 fantasy option on these boards ..... How the "mighty" fall.

I don't know if I agree with this...

...I mean, I could see Andy Greene outpoint Mike Green this season.

even still you have to think Green carries more trade value ..... Or at least one would think so ....