Biggest Hockey Success Factor: Birthdates

[VincentVega]

Seeing as half of your examples aren't Canadian and the author is specifically addressing the advantages an early birth date has for Canadian players I'm not sure I can agree with your counterpoint.

Also, the point isn't that being born earlier is the difference between being elite or not it's that being born earlier gives you an advantage against otherwise similarly skilled players in your birth year. You still have to have the skills to succeed and the truly elite can defy this but when you are working on certain levels of mediocrity being born earlier tends to help.

Fair point about the inclusion of non-Canadian, although I remember the author made the same argument about Czech (or Slovak, I can't remember which) players.

My biggest criticism is the assumption that being born earlier in the year gives you an advantage due to being bigger. The author simply picked size difference as the explanation of the stats. Are most boys born in Jan-April bigger than those born in the later months? What about genetic and diet differences?

[Godin]

Great thread regardless, Blayze.

I noticed this about 20 years ago, a couple of years after I got into my pool. I didn't search for an explanation on why, but, it did stand out and was something i've always kept in the back of my mind.

[blayze]

Fair point about the inclusion of non-Canadian, although I remember the author made the same argument about Czech (or Slovak, I can't remember which) players.

My biggest criticism is the assumption that being born earlier in the year gives you an advantage due to being bigger. The author simply picked size difference as the explanation of the stats. Are most boys born in Jan-April bigger than those born in the later months? What about genetic and diet differences?

Same argument applies to czech because their eligibility date is also Jan 1st, so if anything that reinforces the author's point.

I think you are missing the key point here. It is not that being bigger gives you the advantage. Being bigger at that age gives you the opportunity. The advantage comes from being able to play more games as part of the rep team, getting better personalized coaching, and training with a better group of peers. This in turn gives you a leg up on the "regular" kids (who may be just as equally talented) but who are playing less house league games against weaker competition. It is a matter of opportunity, not a matter of size... size is what provides the opportunity at that young age, because it is much harder to distinguish raw talent since kids aren't physically matured yet.

[metaldude26]

Fair point about the inclusion of non-Canadian, although I remember the author made the same argument about Czech (or Slovak, I can't remember which) players.

My biggest criticism is the assumption that being born earlier in the year gives you an advantage due to being bigger. The author simply picked size difference as the explanation of the stats. Are most boys born in Jan-April bigger than those born in the later months? What about genetic and diet differences?

You are right that those data were never researched but think about it this way - if you've got two kids with great genes and great diets but one is born in January and one is born in December, who would you expect to be bigger/more advanced?

The point is that there are plenty of talented players with great genes and diets and when those players are born will be randomly dispersed so once that weeds a bunch of kids out and you are still selecting there has to be some other factor. The data speaks for itself. Kids with better genes and diets aren't simply just being born more often in the early months. But the genetic and diet factors are why we don't see ALL players being born in early months. You have to have talent but when genetic talent is essentially equal age/development starts to play a role.

[VincentVega]

Same argument applies to czech because their eligibility date is also Jan 1st, so if anything that reinforces the author's point.

I think you are missing the key point here. It is not that being bigger gives you the advantage. Being bigger at that age gives you the opportunity. The advantage comes from being able to play more games as part of the rep team, getting better personalized coaching, and training with a better group of peers. This in turn gives you a leg up on the "regular" kids (who may be just as equally talented) but who are playing less house league games against weaker competition. It is a matter of opportunity, not a matter of size... size is what provides the opportunity at that young age, because it is much harder to distinguish raw talent since kids aren't physically matured yet.

You are right that those data were never researched but think about it this way - if you've got two kids with great genes and great diets but one is born in January and one is born in December, who would you expect to be bigger/more advanced?

The point is that there are plenty of talented players with great genes and diets and when those players are born will be randomly dispersed so once that weeds a bunch of kids out and you are still selecting there has to be some other factor. The data speaks for itself. Kids with better genes and diets aren't simply just being born more often in the early months. But the genetic and diet factors are why we don't see ALL players being born in early months. You have to have talent but when genetic talent is essentially equal age/development starts to play a role.

Good points. Thanks guys.